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Weekly Lines · 2013

Week 17.

16 games and 14 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2013. Every number is open.

This week's plays: 7-7, -0.9u flat at -110. Season through week 17: 134-93, +46.6u flat at -110.

GameMarketTotalFinal
BAL @ CINSun, Dec 29 13:00 ETCIN +6.543BAL 17 at CIN 34CIN +6.5 closed · CIN covered
BUF @ NESun, Dec 29 16:25 ETNE +7.546.5BUF 20 at NE 34NE +7.5 closed · NE covered
CAR @ ATLSun, Dec 29 13:00 ETATL -5.546.5CAR 21 at ATL 20ATL -5.5 closed · ATL covered
CLE @ PITSun, Dec 29 13:00 ETPIT +9.544.5CLE 7 at PIT 20PIT +9.5 closed · PIT covered
DEN @ OAKSun, Dec 29 16:25 ETOAK -1053.5DEN 34 at OAK 14OAK -10 closed · DEN covered
DET @ MINSun, Dec 29 13:00 ETMIN -2.550DET 13 at MIN 14MIN -2.5 closed · MIN covered
GB @ CHISun, Dec 29 16:25 ETCHI -351GB 33 at CHI 28CHI -3 closed · GB covered
HOU @ TENSun, Dec 29 13:00 ETTEN +744.5HOU 10 at TEN 16TEN +7 closed · HOU covered
JAX @ INDSun, Dec 29 13:00 ETIND +1145JAX 10 at IND 30IND +11 closed · IND covered
KC @ SDSun, Dec 29 16:25 ETSD +15.545KC 24 at SD 27SD +15.5 closed · KC covered
NYJ @ MIASun, Dec 29 13:00 ETMIA +7.541NYJ 20 at MIA 7MIA +7.5 closed · NYJ covered
PHI @ DALSun, Dec 29 20:30 ETDAL -7.554PHI 24 at DAL 22DAL -7.5 closed · DAL covered
SF @ ARISun, Dec 29 16:25 ETARI +341SF 23 at ARI 20ARI +3 closed · SF covered
STL @ SEASun, Dec 29 16:25 ETSEA +1341STL 9 at SEA 27SEA +13 closed · SEA covered
TB @ NOSun, Dec 29 16:25 ETNO +1147TB 17 at NO 42NO +11 closed · NO covered
WAS @ NYGSun, Dec 29 13:00 ETNYG +3.544WAS 6 at NYG 20NYG +3.5 closed · NYG covered
The market line as posted, and how each game finished.

The plays

A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.

The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each

BAL @ CIN
WIN BAL +6.5 2.0u
  • model fades them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, better coach, on turf 26-13 (67%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, better QB, better coach 31-16 (66%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, got blown out last week, better QB, better coach 34-18 (65%)
  • and 19 more angles on this side
LAR @ SEA
WIN LAR +13 2.0u
  • model fades them by 0.5+, big underdog (7+), division game, low total (41 or under) 18-8 (69%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, big underdog (7+), low total (41 or under) 28-15 (65%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, big underdog (7+), low total (41 or under) 28-15 (65%)
  • and 13 more angles on this side
DET @ MIN
LOSS MIN +2.5 3.0u
  • model fades them by 0.5+, worse QB, in a dome, high total (48+) 23-8 (74%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, got blown out last week, better coach, in a dome 20-7 (74%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, in a dome, high total (48+) 24-10 (71%)
  • and 31 more angles on this side
WAS @ NYG
WIN WAS +3.5 1.0u
  • model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, better coach, on turf 90-57 (61%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, lost last week, better coach, on turf 77-49 (61%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, better coach, on turf 80-51 (61%)
  • and 3 more angles on this side
PHI @ DAL TOTAL
LOSS Over 54.0 1.0u
  • over when on turf, home team a big underdog 31-17 (65%)
  • over when home team a big underdog 80-63 (56%)
DEN @ OAK TOTAL
LOSS Over 53.5 1.0u
  • over when home team a big underdog 80-63 (56%)
CAR @ ATL TOTAL
LOSS Over 46.5 1.0u
  • over when late season, home team off Monday night 32-18 (64%)
  • over when on turf, home team off Monday night 43-27 (61%)
  • over when home team off Monday night 96-66 (59%)
BUF @ NE TOTAL
LOSS Under 46.5 1.0u
  • under when rain in the forecast, home team a big favorite 45-30 (60%)
  • under when rain in the forecast, division game 64-48 (57%)
BAL @ CIN TOTAL
LOSS Under 43.0 1.0u
  • under when rain in the forecast, division game 64-48 (57%)
WAS @ NYG TOTAL
WIN Under 44.0 1.0u
  • under when rain in the forecast, division game 64-48 (57%)
CLE @ PIT TOTAL
WIN Under 44.5 1.0u
  • under when rain in the forecast, home team a big favorite 45-30 (60%)
  • under when rain in the forecast, division game 64-48 (57%)
HOU @ TEN TOTAL
WIN Under 44.5 1.0u
  • under when rain in the forecast, home team a big favorite 45-30 (60%)
  • under when rain in the forecast, division game 64-48 (57%)
SF @ ARI TOTAL
WIN Over 41.0 1.0u
  • over when in a dome, road team off Monday night 13-8 (62%)
  • over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 66-43 (61%)
STL @ SEA TOTAL
LOSS Over 41.0 1.0u
  • over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 140-107 (57%)
  • over when home team a big favorite, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 65-52 (56%)
  • over when late season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 81-65 (56%)

Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.

← Week 16 The 2013 record

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