Weekly Lines · 2013
Week 7.
15 games and 13 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2013. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 9-4, +3.4u flat at -110. Season through week 7: 67-41, +31.0u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 SEA @  ARIThu, Oct 17 20:25 ET | ARI -5 | 41 | SEA 34 at ARI 22ARI -5 closed · SEA covered |
 BAL @  PITSun, Oct 20 16:25 ET | PIT +2.5 | 41 | BAL 16 at PIT 19PIT +2.5 closed · PIT covered |
 BUF @  MIASun, Oct 20 13:00 ET | MIA +6 | 43.5 | BUF 23 at MIA 21MIA +6 closed · BUF covered |
 CHI @  WASSun, Oct 20 13:00 ET | WAS -1 | 47.5 | CHI 41 at WAS 45WAS -1 closed · WAS covered |
 CIN @  DETSun, Oct 20 13:00 ET | DET +2.5 | 45.5 | CIN 27 at DET 24DET +2.5 closed · CIN covered |
 CLE @  GBSun, Oct 20 16:25 ET | GB +7.5 | 45 | CLE 13 at GB 31GB +7.5 closed · GB covered |
 DAL @  PHISun, Oct 20 13:00 ET | PHI +3 | 55 | DAL 17 at PHI 3PHI +3 closed · DAL covered |
 DEN @  INDSun, Oct 20 20:30 ET | IND -6 | 54.5 | DEN 33 at IND 39IND -6 closed · IND covered |
 HOU @  KCSun, Oct 20 16:25 ET | KC +7 | 38.5 | HOU 16 at KC 17KC +7 closed · HOU covered |
 NE @  NYJSun, Oct 20 13:00 ET | NYJ -3.5 | 43 | NE 27 at NYJ 30NYJ -3.5 closed · NYJ covered |
 SD @  JAXSun, Oct 20 13:00 ET | JAX -7.5 | 44.5 | SD 24 at JAX 6JAX -7.5 closed · SD covered |
 SF @  TENSun, Oct 20 16:05 ET | TEN -3 | 41 | SF 31 at TEN 17TEN -3 closed · SF covered |
 STL @  CARSun, Oct 20 13:00 ET | CAR +8 | 42 | STL 15 at CAR 30CAR +8 closed · CAR covered |
 TB @  ATLSun, Oct 20 13:00 ET | ATL +6 | 43 | TB 23 at ATL 31ATL +6 closed · ATL covered |
 MIN @  NYGMon, Oct 21 20:30 ET | NYG +4 | 47.5 | MIN 7 at NYG 23NYG +4 closed · NYG covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
CLE @ GB WIN CLE +7.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, big underdog (7+), lost last week, got blown out last week 14-8 (64%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, underdog, big underdog (7+), got blown out last week 14-8 (64%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, big underdog (7+), got blown out last week 14-8 (64%)
HOU @ KC WIN KC -7 2.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, big favorite (7+), blew someone out last week, better QB 40-21 (66%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, at home, elite QB, low total (41 or under) 23-13 (64%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, big favorite (7+), blew someone out last week, elite QB 28-16 (64%)
- and 16 more angles on this side
LAC @ JAC LOSS LAC -7.5 2.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road, better QB 43-22 (66%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better record 44-23 (66%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, won last week 44-26 (63%)
- and 10 more angles on this side
NE @ NYJ WIN NE -3.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, better QB, better coach, on turf 49-27 (64%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, better coach, on turf 67-40 (63%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, better coach, division game, on turf 35-22 (61%)
- and 15 more angles on this side
SEA @ ARI LOSS SEA -5 2.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, elite QB, division game, in a dome 27-12 (69%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, better coach, division game, in a dome 50-23 (68%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, better coach, in a dome 65-32 (67%)
- and 11 more angles on this side
SD @ JAX TOTALLOSS Over 44.5 1.0u
- over when a new starting QB, road team off Monday night 26-8 (76%)
- over when home team a big underdog 80-63 (56%)
DEN @ IND TOTALWIN Over 54.5 1.0u
- over when high total (48+), home team off Monday night 16-10 (62%)
- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 43-27 (61%)
- over when home team off Monday night 96-66 (59%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
TB @ ATL TOTALWIN Over 43.0 1.0u
- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 43-27 (61%)
- over when home team off Monday night 96-66 (59%)
- over when on turf, a team looking ahead to a division game 242-196 (55%)
HOU @ KC TOTALWIN Under 38.5 1.0u
- under when windy, home team a big favorite 29-19 (60%)
- under when windy, low total (41 or under) 71-56 (56%)
SEA @ ARI TOTALWIN Over 41.0 1.0u
- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 66-43 (61%)
MIN @ NYG TOTALLOSS Over 47.5 1.0u
- over when on turf, a team looking ahead to a division game 242-196 (55%)
NE @ NYJ TOTALWIN Over 43.0 1.0u
- over when on turf, a team looking ahead to a division game 242-196 (55%)
SF @ TEN TOTALWIN Over 41.0 1.0u
- over when line inside 3, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 76-59 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.