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Weekly Lines · 2013

Week 11.

15 games and 15 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2013. Every number is open.

This week's plays: 8-7, +2.3u flat at -110. Season through week 11: 94-62, +34.4u flat at -110.

GameMarketTotalFinal
IND @ TENThu, Nov 14 20:25 ETTEN -2.542IND 30 at TEN 27TEN -2.5 closed · IND covered
ARI @ JAXSun, Nov 17 13:00 ETJAX -9.540.5ARI 27 at JAX 14JAX -9.5 closed · ARI covered
ATL @ TBSun, Nov 17 13:00 ETTB +144ATL 28 at TB 41TB +1 closed · TB covered
BAL @ CHISun, Nov 17 13:00 ETCHI +441BAL 20 at CHI 23CHI +4 closed · BAL covered
CLE @ CINSun, Nov 17 13:00 ETCIN +440CLE 20 at CIN 41CIN +4 closed · CIN covered
DET @ PITSun, Nov 17 13:00 ETPIT -345DET 27 at PIT 37PIT -3 closed · PIT covered
GB @ NYGSun, Nov 17 16:25 ETNYG +3.541GB 13 at NYG 27NYG +3.5 closed · NYG covered
KC @ DENSun, Nov 17 20:30 ETDEN +7.548.5KC 17 at DEN 27DEN +7.5 closed · DEN covered
MIN @ SEASun, Nov 17 16:25 ETSEA +1345MIN 20 at SEA 41SEA +13 closed · SEA covered
NYJ @ BUFSun, Nov 17 13:00 ETBUF -139.5NYJ 14 at BUF 37BUF -1 closed · BUF covered
OAK @ HOUSun, Nov 17 13:00 ETHOU +10.541OAK 28 at HOU 23HOU +10.5 closed · OAK covered
SD @ MIASun, Nov 17 16:05 ETMIA -2.544SD 16 at MIA 20MIA -2.5 closed · MIA covered
SF @ NOSun, Nov 17 16:25 ETNO +3.550SF 20 at NO 23NO +3.5 closed · SF covered
WAS @ PHISun, Nov 17 13:00 ETPHI +4.554.5WAS 16 at PHI 24PHI +4.5 closed · PHI covered
NE @ CARMon, Nov 18 20:30 ETCAR +346.5NE 20 at CAR 24CAR +3 closed · CAR covered
The market line as posted, and how each game finished.

The plays

A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.

The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each

ARI @ JAC
LOSS ARI -9.5 1.0u
  • model fades them by 1.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road, low total (41 or under) 19-11 (63%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road, better QB 47-29 (62%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, big favorite (7+), on the road, low total (41 or under) 19-12 (61%)
  • and 1 more angle on this side
BAL @ CHI
LOSS BAL +4 1.0u
  • model fades them by 2.0+, underdog, better QB, better coach 15-9 (62%)
  • model fades them by 2.0+, better QB, better coach, low total (41 or under) 61-38 (62%)
  • model fades them by 2.0+, won last week, better coach, low total (41 or under) 56-35 (62%)
  • and 7 more angles on this side
CLE @ CIN
WIN CLE +4 1.0u
  • model fades them by 0.5+, worse record, on turf, low total (41 or under) 36-24 (60%)
LAC @ MIA
LOSS MIA +2.5 1.0u
  • model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, at home, less rest than the opponent 19-12 (61%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, at home, lost last week 59-38 (61%)
NE @ CAR
WIN NE +3 1.0u
  • model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, won last week, better record 27-16 (63%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, better QB, elite QB 27-17 (61%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 49-31 (61%)
  • and 3 more angles on this side
SF @ NO
WIN SF +3.5 3.0u
  • model likes them by 0.5+, elite QB, better coach, high total (48+) 35-12 (74%)
  • model likes them by 1.0+, better coach, in a dome, high total (48+) 20-7 (74%)
  • model likes them by 0.5+, better coach, in a dome, high total (48+) 21-8 (72%)
  • and 43 more angles on this side
IND @ TEN
WIN TEN +2.5 1.0u
  • model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, at home, lost last week 59-38 (61%)
ARI @ JAX TOTAL
WIN Over 40.5 1.0u
  • over when home team a big underdog 80-63 (56%)
SD @ MIA TOTAL
LOSS Over 44.0 1.0u
  • over when home team off Monday night, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 23-9 (72%)
  • over when line inside 3, home team off Monday night 43-18 (70%)
  • over when home team off Monday night 96-66 (59%)
  • and 1 more angle on this side
ATL @ TB TOTAL
WIN Over 44.0 1.0u
  • over when line inside 3, home team off Monday night 43-18 (70%)
  • over when home team off Monday night 96-66 (59%)
BAL @ CHI TOTAL
LOSS Under 41.0 1.0u
  • under when windy, low total (41 or under) 71-56 (56%)
OAK @ HOU TOTAL
WIN Over 41.0 1.0u
  • over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 66-43 (61%)
  • over when home team a big favorite, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 65-52 (56%)
GB @ NYG TOTAL
LOSS Over 41.0 1.0u
  • over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 140-107 (57%)
  • over when on turf, a team looking ahead to a division game 242-196 (55%)
SF @ NO TOTAL
LOSS Over 50.0 1.0u
  • over when on turf, a team looking ahead to a division game 242-196 (55%)
IND @ TEN TOTAL
WIN Over 42.0 1.0u
  • over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 108-79 (58%)

Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.

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