Weekly Lines · 2013
Week 10.
14 games and 11 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2013. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 4-7, -7.0u flat at -110. Season through week 10: 86-55, +32.1u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 WAS @  MINThu, Nov 7 20:25 ET | MIN -1 | 48 | WAS 27 at MIN 34MIN -1 closed · MIN covered |
 BUF @  PITSun, Nov 10 13:00 ET | PIT +3 | 42.5 | BUF 10 at PIT 23PIT +3 closed · PIT covered |
 CAR @  SFSun, Nov 10 16:05 ET | SF +6 | 43 | CAR 10 at SF 9SF +6 closed · CAR covered |
 CIN @  BALSun, Nov 10 13:00 ET | BAL +1 | 44 | CIN 17 at BAL 20BAL +1 closed · BAL covered |
 DAL @  NOSun, Nov 10 20:30 ET | NO +6 | 54 | DAL 17 at NO 49NO +6 closed · NO covered |
 DEN @  SDSun, Nov 10 16:25 ET | SD -7 | 56 | DEN 28 at SD 20SD -7 closed · DEN covered |
 DET @  CHISun, Nov 10 13:00 ET | CHI -1 | 52 | DET 21 at CHI 19CHI -1 closed · DET covered |
 HOU @  ARISun, Nov 10 16:25 ET | ARI +4 | 41.5 | HOU 24 at ARI 27ARI +4 closed · HOU covered |
 JAX @  TENSun, Nov 10 13:00 ET | TEN +11.5 | 41.5 | JAX 29 at TEN 27TEN +11.5 closed · JAX covered |
 OAK @  NYGSun, Nov 10 13:00 ET | NYG +7.5 | 41 | OAK 20 at NYG 24NYG +7.5 closed · OAK covered |
 PHI @  GBSun, Nov 10 13:00 ET | GB -1 | 47 | PHI 27 at GB 13GB -1 closed · PHI covered |
 SEA @  ATLSun, Nov 10 13:00 ET | ATL -3.5 | 47 | SEA 33 at ATL 10ATL -3.5 closed · SEA covered |
 STL @  INDSun, Nov 10 13:00 ET | IND +7.5 | 43 | STL 38 at IND 8IND +7.5 closed · STL covered |
 MIA @  TBMon, Nov 11 20:30 ET | TB -1 | 39 | MIA 19 at TB 22TB -1 closed · TB covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
LAR @ IND - model fades them by 1.0+, worse record, better QB, in a dome 26-14 (65%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, worse record, better QB, in a dome 28-17 (62%)
DAL @ NO - model fades them by 0.5+, better coach, in a dome 115-71 (62%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, in a dome, high total (48+) 51-32 (61%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, favorite, better coach, in a dome 89-56 (61%)
- and 6 more angles on this side
BUF @ PIT - model fades them by 3.0+, at home, worse record, elite QB 14-9 (61%)
MIA @ TB - model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, less rest than the opponent, low total (41 or under) 19-8 (70%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, less rest than the opponent, low total (41 or under) 16-7 (70%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, less rest than the opponent, better coach 18-8 (69%)
- and 19 more angles on this side
DEN @ SD TOTAL- over when home team a big underdog 80-63 (56%)
PHI @ GB TOTAL- over when line inside 3, home team off Monday night 43-18 (70%)
- over when home team off Monday night 96-66 (59%)
- over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 108-79 (58%)
BUF @ PIT TOTAL- under when windy, line inside 3 43-32 (57%)
OAK @ NYG TOTAL- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 140-107 (57%)
- over when home team a big favorite, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 65-52 (56%)
DAL @ NO TOTAL- over when on turf, a team looking ahead to a division game 242-196 (55%)
SEA @ ATL TOTAL- over when on turf, a team looking ahead to a division game 242-196 (55%)
STL @ IND TOTAL- over when on turf, a team looking ahead to a division game 242-196 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.