Weekly Lines · 2014
Week 1.
16 games and 9 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2014. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 3-6, -3.7u flat at -110. Season through week 1: 3-6, -3.7u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 GB @  SEAThu, Sep 4 20:30 ET | SEA +4.5 | 46.5 | GB 16 at SEA 36SEA +4.5 closed · SEA covered |
 BUF @  CHISun, Sep 7 13:00 ET | CHI +7 | 47 | BUF 23 at CHI 20CHI +7 closed · BUF covered |
 CAR @  TBSun, Sep 7 16:25 ET | TB +5.5 | 38.5 | CAR 20 at TB 14TB +5.5 closed · CAR covered |
 CIN @  BALSun, Sep 7 13:00 ET | BAL +1 | 43.5 | CIN 23 at BAL 16BAL +1 closed · CIN covered |
 CLE @  PITSun, Sep 7 13:00 ET | PIT +5.5 | 41.5 | CLE 27 at PIT 30PIT +5.5 closed · CLE covered |
 IND @  DENSun, Sep 7 20:30 ET | DEN +8 | 52.5 | IND 24 at DEN 31DEN +8 closed · IND covered |
 JAX @  PHISun, Sep 7 13:00 ET | PHI +10 | 49 | JAX 17 at PHI 34PHI +10 closed · PHI covered |
 MIN @  STLSun, Sep 7 13:00 ET | STL +3 | 43.5 | MIN 34 at STL 6STL +3 closed · MIN covered |
 NE @  MIASun, Sep 7 13:00 ET | MIA -3.5 | 47.5 | NE 20 at MIA 33MIA -3.5 closed · MIA covered |
 NO @  ATLSun, Sep 7 13:00 ET | ATL -3 | 51 | NO 34 at ATL 37ATL -3 closed · ATL covered |
 OAK @  NYJSun, Sep 7 13:00 ET | NYJ +6.5 | 41 | OAK 14 at NYJ 19NYJ +6.5 closed · OAK covered |
 SF @  DALSun, Sep 7 16:25 ET | DAL -3.5 | 49 | SF 28 at DAL 17DAL -3.5 closed · SF covered |
 TEN @  KCSun, Sep 7 13:00 ET | KC +3 | 45.5 | TEN 26 at KC 10KC +3 closed · TEN covered |
 WAS @  HOUSun, Sep 7 13:00 ET | HOU +3 | 43.5 | WAS 6 at HOU 17HOU +3 closed · HOU covered |
 NYG @  DETMon, Sep 8 19:10 ET | DET +6.5 | 45 | NYG 14 at DET 35DET +6.5 closed · DET covered |
 SD @  ARIMon, Sep 8 21:20 ET | ARI +3 | 45.5 | SD 17 at ARI 18ARI +3 closed · SD covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
CIN @ BAL - model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, better QB, division game 83-49 (63%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, elite QB, division game 42-27 (61%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, better QB, elite QB 97-64 (60%)
LAC @ ARI - model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, better QB, elite QB 97-64 (60%)
MIN @ 
LAR - model fades them by 2.0+, worse QB, better coach, in a dome 31-16 (66%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, worse QB, better coach, in a dome 21-11 (66%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, worse QB, better coach, in a dome 42-22 (66%)
- and 9 more angles on this side
CAR @ TB - model fades them by 3.0+, at home, elite QB, division game 24-12 (67%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, at home, elite QB, low total (41 or under) 24-15 (62%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, at home, elite QB, division game 33-21 (61%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
NE @ MIA TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, division game 73-56 (57%)
SF @ DAL TOTAL- over when on turf, high total (48+) 92-74 (55%)
OAK @ NYJ TOTAL- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 151-115 (57%)
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 173-137 (56%)
CIN @ BAL TOTAL- over when on turf, a team looking ahead to a division game 273-219 (56%)
CAR @ TB TOTAL- over when low total (41 or under), early season 173-137 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.