Weekly Lines · 2014
Week 7.
15 games and 10 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2014. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 7-3, +4.5u flat at -110. Season through week 7: 38-46, -18.9u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 NYJ @  NEThu, Oct 16 20:25 ET | NE +9.5 | 44.5 | NYJ 25 at NE 27NE +9.5 closed · NYJ covered |
 ARI @  OAKSun, Oct 19 16:25 ET | OAK -3.5 | 46 | ARI 24 at OAK 13OAK -3.5 closed · ARI covered |
 ATL @  BALSun, Oct 19 13:00 ET | BAL +7 | 49.5 | ATL 7 at BAL 29BAL +7 closed · BAL covered |
 CAR @  GBSun, Oct 19 13:00 ET | GB +6.5 | 48.5 | CAR 17 at GB 38GB +6.5 closed · GB covered |
 CIN @  INDSun, Oct 19 13:00 ET | IND +3 | 50.5 | CIN 0 at IND 27IND +3 closed · IND covered |
 CLE @  JAXSun, Oct 19 13:00 ET | JAX -4 | 44.5 | CLE 6 at JAX 24JAX -4 closed · JAX covered |
 KC @  SDSun, Oct 19 16:05 ET | SD +3 | 46 | KC 23 at SD 20SD +3 closed · KC covered |
 MIA @  CHISun, Oct 19 13:00 ET | CHI +3 | 47.5 | MIA 27 at CHI 14CHI +3 closed · MIA covered |
 MIN @  BUFSun, Oct 19 13:00 ET | BUF +7 | 43.5 | MIN 16 at BUF 17BUF +7 closed · MIN covered |
 NO @  DETSun, Oct 19 13:00 ET | DET +1.5 | 45.5 | NO 23 at DET 24DET +1.5 closed · NO covered |
 NYG @  DALSun, Oct 19 16:25 ET | DAL +5 | 47 | NYG 21 at DAL 31DAL +5 closed · DAL covered |
 SEA @  STLSun, Oct 19 13:00 ET | STL -7 | 43.5 | SEA 26 at STL 28STL -7 closed · STL covered |
 SF @  DENSun, Oct 19 20:30 ET | DEN +7 | 48 | SF 17 at DEN 42DEN +7 closed · DEN covered |
 TEN @  WASSun, Oct 19 13:00 ET | WAS +6 | 46 | TEN 17 at WAS 19WAS +6 closed · TEN covered |
 HOU @  PITMon, Oct 20 20:30 ET | PIT +3 | 44.5 | HOU 23 at PIT 30PIT +3 closed · PIT covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
ARI @ 
LV - model likes them by 1.0+, favorite, on the road, won last week 66-43 (61%)
MIN @ BUF - model fades them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, better record, on turf 23-15 (60%)
CIN @ IND - model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, on turf, high total (48+) 16-4 (80%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, elite QB 19-7 (73%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, elite QB 21-8 (72%)
- and 21 more angles on this side
CLE @ JAC - model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, on the road, blew someone out last week 57-32 (64%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 42-24 (64%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 51-32 (61%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
NO @ DET - model fades them by 0.5+, blew someone out last week, worse QB, in a dome 25-12 (68%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, favorite, blew someone out last week, in a dome 42-22 (66%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, blew someone out last week, better record, worse QB 38-21 (64%)
- and 7 more angles on this side
NYG @ DAL - model fades them by 2.0+, got blown out last week, worse record, in a dome 20-8 (71%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, got blown out last week, division game, in a dome 16-8 (67%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, underdog, got blown out last week, in a dome 14-7 (67%)
- and 10 more angles on this side
SEA @ STL TOTAL- over when home team off Monday night, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 27-12 (69%)
- over when home team off Monday night 111-76 (59%)
- over when in a dome, home team off Monday night 23-18 (56%)
ATL @ BAL TOTAL- over when on turf, a team looking ahead to a division game 273-219 (56%)
- over when on turf, high total (48+) 92-74 (55%)
NYG @ DAL TOTAL- over when on turf, a team looking ahead to a division game 273-219 (56%)
MIN @ BUF TOTAL- over when on turf, a team looking ahead to a division game 273-219 (56%)
- over when on turf, a new starting QB 127-102 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.