Weekly Lines · 2014
Week 4.
13 games and 10 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2014. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 7-3, +5.7u flat at -110. Season through week 4: 20-29, -14.4u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 NYG @  WASThu, Sep 25 20:25 ET | WAS +3 | 44.5 | NYG 45 at WAS 14WAS +3 closed · NYG covered |
 ATL @  MINSun, Sep 28 16:25 ET | MIN -5.5 | 48 | ATL 28 at MIN 41MIN -5.5 closed · MIN covered |
 BUF @  HOUSun, Sep 28 13:00 ET | HOU +3 | 44 | BUF 17 at HOU 23HOU +3 closed · HOU covered |
 CAR @  BALSun, Sep 28 13:00 ET | BAL +3.5 | 42.5 | CAR 10 at BAL 38BAL +3.5 closed · BAL covered |
 DET @  NYJSun, Sep 28 13:00 ET | NYJ +2 | 43.5 | DET 24 at NYJ 17NYJ +2 closed · DET covered |
 GB @  CHISun, Sep 28 13:00 ET | CHI -2 | 51 | GB 38 at CHI 17CHI -2 closed · GB covered |
 JAX @  SDSun, Sep 28 16:05 ET | SD +13 | 45 | JAX 14 at SD 33SD +13 closed · SD covered |
 MIA @  OAKSun, Sep 28 13:00 ET | OAK -4 | 41 | MIA 38 at OAK 14OAK -4 closed · MIA covered |
 NO @  DALSun, Sep 28 20:30 ET | DAL -3 | 53.5 | NO 17 at DAL 38DAL -3 closed · DAL covered |
 PHI @  SFSun, Sep 28 16:25 ET | SF +3.5 | 48.5 | PHI 21 at SF 26SF +3.5 closed · SF covered |
 TB @  PITSun, Sep 28 13:00 ET | PIT +7.5 | 44.5 | TB 27 at PIT 24PIT +7.5 closed · TB covered |
 TEN @  INDSun, Sep 28 13:00 ET | IND +7.5 | 45.5 | TEN 17 at IND 41IND +7.5 closed · IND covered |
 NE @  KCMon, Sep 29 20:30 ET | KC -3 | 45 | NE 14 at KC 41KC -3 closed · KC covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
CAR @ BAL - model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, lost last week, better QB 88-56 (61%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, lost last week, better QB, better coach 77-50 (61%)
BUF @ HOU - model likes them by 1.0+, lost last week, elite QB, in a dome 28-14 (67%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, lost last week, better coach, in a dome 50-26 (66%)
- model likes them by 2.0+, lost last week, better coach, in a dome 33-18 (65%)
- and 6 more angles on this side
TB @ PIT - model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better record 48-25 (66%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, elite QB 20-12 (62%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, big favorite (7+), blew someone out last week, better QB 42-26 (62%)
- and 6 more angles on this side
PHI @ SF - model fades them by 1.0+, at home, worse QB, high total (48+) 22-14 (61%)
DET @ NYJ TOTAL- over when early season, home team off Monday night 40-19 (68%)
- over when line inside 3, home team off Monday night 50-24 (68%)
- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 51-31 (62%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
ATL @ MIN TOTAL- over when a new starting QB, early season 56-33 (63%)
- over when on turf, a team looking ahead to a division game 273-219 (56%)
- over when on turf, a new starting QB 127-102 (56%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
TEN @ IND TOTAL- over when a new starting QB, early season 56-33 (63%)
- over when on turf, a new starting QB 127-102 (56%)
MIA @ OAK TOTAL- over when low total (41 or under), early season 173-137 (56%)
JAX @ SD TOTAL- over when a new starting QB, early season 56-33 (63%)
- over when home team a big favorite, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 74-58 (56%)
TB @ PIT TOTAL- over when a new starting QB, early season 56-33 (63%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.