Weekly Lines · 2014
Week 11.
14 games and 17 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2014. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 7-10, -9.6u flat at -110. Season through week 11: 68-77, -29.0u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 BUF @  MIAThu, Nov 13 20:25 ET | MIA +4 | 40.5 | BUF 9 at MIA 22MIA +4 closed · MIA covered |
 ATL @  CARSun, Nov 16 13:00 ET | CAR -2.5 | 46.5 | ATL 19 at CAR 17CAR -2.5 closed · CAR covered |
 CIN @  NOSun, Nov 16 13:00 ET | NO +8.5 | 51 | CIN 27 at NO 10NO +8.5 closed · CIN covered |
 DEN @  STLSun, Nov 16 13:00 ET | STL -8 | 49.5 | DEN 7 at STL 22STL -8 closed · STL covered |
 DET @  ARISun, Nov 16 16:25 ET | ARI -1 | 41.5 | DET 6 at ARI 14ARI -1 closed · ARI covered |
 HOU @  CLESun, Nov 16 13:00 ET | CLE +4.5 | 42 | HOU 23 at CLE 7CLE +4.5 closed · HOU covered |
 MIN @  CHISun, Nov 16 13:00 ET | CHI +2.5 | 46.5 | MIN 13 at CHI 21CHI +2.5 closed · CHI covered |
 NE @  INDSun, Nov 16 20:30 ET | IND +3 | 58 | NE 42 at IND 20IND +3 closed · NE covered |
 OAK @  SDSun, Nov 16 16:05 ET | SD +10.5 | 45.5 | OAK 6 at SD 13SD +10.5 closed · OAK covered |
 PHI @  GBSun, Nov 16 16:25 ET | GB +4.5 | 55.5 | PHI 20 at GB 53GB +4.5 closed · GB covered |
 SEA @  KCSun, Nov 16 13:00 ET | KC -1 | 43.5 | SEA 20 at KC 24KC -1 closed · KC covered |
 SF @  NYGSun, Nov 16 13:00 ET | NYG -4 | 45 | SF 16 at NYG 10NYG -4 closed · SF covered |
 TB @  WASSun, Nov 16 13:00 ET | WAS +6.5 | 45.5 | TB 27 at WAS 7WAS +6.5 closed · TB covered |
 PIT @  TENMon, Nov 17 20:30 ET | TEN -7 | 46.5 | PIT 27 at TEN 24TEN -7 closed · TEN covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
BUF @ MIA WIN BUF +4 1.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, underdog, lost last week, division game 45-30 (60%)
MIN @ CHI LOSS CHI -2.5 3.0u
- model fades them by 1.0+, less rest than the opponent, got blown out last week, worse record 14-6 (70%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, got blown out last week, worse record 16-8 (67%)
HOU @ CLE WIN CLE -4.5 2.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better record 48-25 (66%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better record 30-17 (64%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better record 62-40 (61%)
- and 4 more angles on this side
LV @ 
LAC LOSS LV +10.5 3.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, big underdog (7+), lost last week, division game 16-6 (73%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, big underdog (7+), got blown out last week, worse QB 14-6 (70%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, less rest than the opponent, got blown out last week, worse record 14-6 (70%)
- and 38 more angles on this side
PHI @ GB LOSS PHI +4.5 3.0u
- model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, better coach, high total (48+) 16-4 (80%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, high total (48+) 19-8 (70%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week 18-8 (69%)
- and 13 more angles on this side
PIT @ TEN WIN PIT -7 1.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, big favorite (7+), on the road, elite QB 43-26 (62%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, big favorite (7+), on the road, lost last week 14-9 (61%)
SEA @ KC LOSS SEA -1 1.0u
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, elite QB 27-16 (63%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, favorite, on the road, won last week 66-43 (61%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, better QB, elite QB 97-64 (60%)
PIT @ TEN TOTALWIN Over 46.5 1.0u
- over when rain in the forecast, home team a big underdog 16-4 (80%)
- over when under 40 degrees 131-107 (55%)
PHI @ GB TOTALWIN Over 55.5 1.0u
- over when a new starting QB, road team off Monday night 27-9 (75%)
- over when under 40 degrees 131-107 (55%)
MIN @ CHI TOTALLOSS Over 46.5 1.0u
- over when under 40 degrees, line inside 3 50-30 (62%)
- over when under 40 degrees 131-107 (55%)
HOU @ CLE TOTALLOSS Over 42.0 1.0u
- over when under 40 degrees 131-107 (55%)
SEA @ KC TOTALWIN Over 43.5 1.0u
- over when under 40 degrees, line inside 3 50-30 (62%)
- over when under 40 degrees 131-107 (55%)
ATL @ CAR TOTALLOSS Over 46.5 1.0u
- over when line inside 3, home team off Monday night 50-24 (68%)
- over when home team off Monday night 111-76 (59%)
CIN @ NO TOTALLOSS Over 51.0 1.0u
- over when on turf, high total (48+) 92-74 (55%)
SF @ NYG TOTALLOSS Over 45.0 1.0u
- over when on turf, a team looking ahead to a division game 273-219 (56%)
DEN @ STL TOTALWIN Under 49.5 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), home team a big underdog 13-10 (56%)
DET @ ARI TOTALLOSS Over 41.5 1.0u
- over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 125-87 (59%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.