Weekly Lines · 2014
Week 10.
13 games and 15 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2014. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 7-8, -2.1u flat at -110. Season through week 10: 61-67, -19.4u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 CLE @  CINThu, Nov 6 20:25 ET | CIN +6.5 | 45.5 | CLE 24 at CIN 3CIN +6.5 closed · CLE covered |
 ATL @  TBSun, Nov 9 13:00 ET | TB -3.5 | 47 | ATL 27 at TB 17TB -3.5 closed · ATL covered |
 CHI @  GBSun, Nov 9 20:30 ET | GB +9.5 | 53 | CHI 14 at GB 55GB +9.5 closed · GB covered |
 DAL @  JAXSun, Nov 9 13:00 ET | JAX -7.5 | 45 | DAL 31 at JAX 17JAX -7.5 closed · DAL covered |
 DEN @  OAKSun, Nov 9 16:05 ET | OAK -13 | 50.5 | DEN 41 at OAK 17OAK -13 closed · DEN covered |
 KC @  BUFSun, Nov 9 13:00 ET | BUF +2 | 42 | KC 17 at BUF 13BUF +2 closed · KC covered |
 MIA @  DETSun, Nov 9 13:00 ET | DET +3 | 43 | MIA 16 at DET 20DET +3 closed · DET covered |
 NYG @  SEASun, Nov 9 16:25 ET | SEA +9 | 44.5 | NYG 17 at SEA 38SEA +9 closed · SEA covered |
 PIT @  NYJSun, Nov 9 13:00 ET | NYJ -4.5 | 47 | PIT 13 at NYJ 20NYJ -4.5 closed · NYJ covered |
 SF @  NOSun, Nov 9 13:00 ET | NO +6 | 49.5 | SF 27 at NO 24NO +6 closed · SF covered |
 STL @  ARISun, Nov 9 16:25 ET | ARI +7 | 43 | STL 14 at ARI 31ARI +7 closed · ARI covered |
 TEN @  BALSun, Nov 9 13:00 ET | BAL +10.5 | 44.5 | TEN 7 at BAL 21BAL +10.5 closed · BAL covered |
 CAR @  PHIMon, Nov 10 20:30 ET | PHI +7 | 48.5 | CAR 21 at PHI 45PHI +7 closed · PHI covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
DAL @ JAC LOSS DAL -7.5 2.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road, elite QB 33-15 (69%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road, elite QB 39-18 (68%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road, lost last week 14-8 (64%)
- and 18 more angles on this side
DEN @ 
LV LOSS DEN -13 2.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road, elite QB 33-15 (69%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road, elite QB 39-18 (68%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), better coach, division game 40-21 (66%)
- and 51 more angles on this side
LAR @ ARI WIN LAR +7 2.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, big underdog (7+), worse record, division game 43-22 (66%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, big underdog (7+), worse record, division game 23-13 (64%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, big underdog (7+), division game 44-25 (64%)
- and 19 more angles on this side
SF @ NO LOSS NO -6 2.0u
- model likes them by 1.0+, elite QB, in a dome, high total (48+) 27-12 (69%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, at home, in a dome, high total (48+) 31-14 (69%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, elite QB, in a dome, high total (48+) 28-15 (65%)
- and 27 more angles on this side
NYG @ SEA WIN NYG +9 3.0u
- model fades them by 1.0+, less rest than the opponent, got blown out last week, worse record 14-6 (70%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, big underdog (7+), less rest than the opponent, worse record 15-7 (68%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, got blown out last week, worse record 16-8 (67%)
- and 6 more angles on this side
CHI @ GB TOTALWIN Over 53.0 1.0u
- over when under 40 degrees 131-107 (55%)
ATL @ TB TOTALWIN Under 47.0 1.0u
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 73-56 (57%)
CLE @ CIN TOTALWIN Under 45.5 1.0u
- under when windy, division game 57-40 (59%)
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 73-56 (57%)
SF @ NO TOTALWIN Over 49.5 1.0u
- over when on turf, high total (48+) 92-74 (55%)
KC @ BUF TOTALLOSS Over 42.0 1.0u
- over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 125-87 (59%)
- over when on turf, a team looking ahead to a division game 273-219 (56%)
- over when on turf, a new starting QB 127-102 (56%)
MIA @ DET TOTALLOSS Over 43.0 1.0u
- over when on turf, a team looking ahead to a division game 273-219 (56%)
PIT @ NYJ TOTALLOSS Over 47.0 1.0u
- over when on turf, a team looking ahead to a division game 273-219 (56%)
- over when on turf, a new starting QB 127-102 (56%)
TEN @ BAL TOTALLOSS Over 44.5 1.0u
- over when on turf, a new starting QB 127-102 (56%)
DEN @ OAK TOTALLOSS Under 50.5 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), home team a big underdog 13-10 (56%)
NYG @ SEA TOTALWIN Over 44.5 1.0u
- over when home team a big favorite, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 74-58 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.