Weekly Lines · 2014
Week 16.
16 games and 8 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2014. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 4-4, -0.4u flat at -110. Season through week 16: 99-116, -44.6u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 TEN @  JAXThu, Dec 18 20:25 ET | JAX +4 | 39 | TEN 13 at JAX 21JAX +4 closed · JAX covered |
 PHI @  WASSat, Dec 20 16:25 ET | WAS -7 | 51 | PHI 24 at WAS 27WAS -7 closed · WAS covered |
 SD @  SFSat, Dec 20 20:25 ET | SF +2 | 40.5 | SD 38 at SF 35SF +2 closed · SD covered |
 ATL @  NOSun, Dec 21 13:00 ET | NO +6 | 56 | ATL 30 at NO 14NO +6 closed · ATL covered |
 BAL @  HOUSun, Dec 21 13:00 ET | HOU -6 | 42 | BAL 13 at HOU 25HOU -6 closed · HOU covered |
 BUF @  OAKSun, Dec 21 16:25 ET | OAK -7 | 42 | BUF 24 at OAK 26OAK -7 closed · OAK covered |
 CLE @  CARSun, Dec 21 13:00 ET | CAR +6 | 40 | CLE 13 at CAR 17CAR +6 closed · CLE covered |
 DET @  CHISun, Dec 21 13:00 ET | CHI -10 | 44.5 | DET 20 at CHI 14CHI -10 closed · CHI covered |
 GB @  TBSun, Dec 21 13:00 ET | TB -11.5 | 48.5 | GB 20 at TB 3TB -11.5 closed · GB covered |
 IND @  DALSun, Dec 21 16:25 ET | DAL +3.5 | 53 | IND 7 at DAL 42DAL +3.5 closed · DAL covered |
 KC @  PITSun, Dec 21 13:00 ET | PIT +2.5 | 49.5 | KC 12 at PIT 20PIT +2.5 closed · PIT covered |
 MIN @  MIASun, Dec 21 13:00 ET | MIA +4.5 | 42 | MIN 35 at MIA 37MIA +4.5 closed · MIN covered |
 NE @  NYJSun, Dec 21 13:00 ET | NYJ -10 | 47 | NE 17 at NYJ 16NYJ -10 closed · NYJ covered |
 NYG @  STLSun, Dec 21 16:05 ET | STL +7 | 43.5 | NYG 37 at STL 27STL +7 closed · NYG covered |
 SEA @  ARISun, Dec 21 20:30 ET | ARI -9.5 | 36.5 | SEA 35 at ARI 6ARI -9.5 closed · SEA covered |
 DEN @  CINMon, Dec 22 20:30 ET | CIN -3.5 | 47 | DEN 28 at CIN 37CIN -3.5 closed · CIN covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
CLE @ CAR - model fades them by 3.0+, at home, better coach, low total (41 or under) 57-32 (64%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, better coach, low total (41 or under) 98-59 (62%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, better coach 126-78 (62%)
- and 13 more angles on this side
NYG @ 
LAR - model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, won last week 44-29 (60%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, won last week 39-26 (60%)
DET @ CHI TOTAL- over when late season, home team off Monday night 34-23 (60%)
- over when home team off Monday night 111-76 (59%)
- over when a team looking ahead to a division game, home team off Monday night 60-46 (57%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
NE @ NYJ TOTAL- over when under 40 degrees, late season 109-87 (56%)
- over when on turf, a team looking ahead to a division game 273-219 (56%)
- over when under 40 degrees 131-107 (55%)
ATL @ NO TOTAL- over when high total (48+), home team off Monday night 22-11 (67%)
- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 51-31 (62%)
- over when late season, home team off Monday night 34-23 (60%)
- and 5 more angles on this side
SEA @ ARI TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 73-45 (62%)
IND @ DAL TOTAL- over when on turf, a team looking ahead to a division game 273-219 (56%)
- over when on turf, high total (48+) 92-74 (55%)
DEN @ CIN TOTAL- over when on turf, a team looking ahead to a division game 273-219 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.