Weekly Lines · 2014
Week 17.
16 games and 11 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2014. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 4-7, -6.0u flat at -110. Season through week 17: 103-123, -50.6u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 ARI @  SFSun, Dec 28 16:25 ET | SF +6 | 38 | ARI 17 at SF 20SF +6 closed · ARI covered |
 BUF @  NESun, Dec 28 13:00 ET | NE +4.5 | 43.5 | BUF 17 at NE 9NE +4.5 closed · BUF covered |
 CAR @  ATLSun, Dec 28 16:25 ET | ATL +2.5 | 48 | CAR 34 at ATL 3ATL +2.5 closed · CAR covered |
 CHI @  MINSun, Dec 28 13:00 ET | MIN +7 | 47 | CHI 9 at MIN 13MIN +7 closed · CHI covered |
 CIN @  PITSun, Dec 28 20:30 ET | PIT +3 | 48 | CIN 17 at PIT 27PIT +3 closed · PIT covered |
 CLE @  BALSun, Dec 28 13:00 ET | BAL +14 | 40 | CLE 10 at BAL 20BAL +14 closed · CLE covered |
 DAL @  WASSun, Dec 28 13:00 ET | WAS -6 | 47.5 | DAL 44 at WAS 17WAS -6 closed · DAL covered |
 DET @  GBSun, Dec 28 16:25 ET | GB +9 | 46.5 | DET 20 at GB 30GB +9 closed · GB covered |
 IND @  TENSun, Dec 28 13:00 ET | TEN -7.5 | 46.5 | IND 27 at TEN 10TEN -7.5 closed · IND covered |
 JAX @  HOUSun, Dec 28 13:00 ET | HOU +8.5 | 38.5 | JAX 17 at HOU 23HOU +8.5 closed · JAX covered |
 NO @  TBSun, Dec 28 13:00 ET | TB -6 | 47 | NO 23 at TB 20TB -6 closed · TB covered |
 NYJ @  MIASun, Dec 28 13:00 ET | MIA +7 | 41 | NYJ 37 at MIA 24MIA +7 closed · NYJ covered |
 OAK @  DENSun, Dec 28 16:25 ET | DEN +16.5 | 49 | OAK 14 at DEN 47DEN +16.5 closed · DEN covered |
 PHI @  NYGSun, Dec 28 13:00 ET | NYG -1 | 51.5 | PHI 34 at NYG 26NYG -1 closed · PHI covered |
 SD @  KCSun, Dec 28 13:00 ET | KC +3 | 42.5 | SD 7 at KC 19KC +3 closed · KC covered |
 STL @  SEASun, Dec 28 16:25 ET | SEA +11 | 41.5 | STL 6 at SEA 20SEA +11 closed · SEA covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
BUF @ NE - model fades them by 2.0+, underdog, lost last week, division game 45-30 (60%)
NO @ TB - model fades them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, better record, better coach 17-9 (65%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, on the road, got blown out last week, better coach 20-11 (64%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, got blown out last week, better coach 36-20 (64%)
- and 28 more angles on this side
PHI @ NYG - model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, on turf, high total (48+) 16-4 (80%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, high total (48+) 19-8 (70%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, high total (48+) 18-8 (69%)
- and 5 more angles on this side
LAR @ SEA - model fades them by 2.0+, big favorite (7+), better coach, division game 52-28 (65%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, at home, better coach, division game 69-38 (64%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, won last week, better coach, division game 71-41 (63%)
- and 23 more angles on this side
DET @ GB TOTAL- over when under 40 degrees, late season 109-87 (56%)
- over when under 40 degrees 131-107 (55%)
SD @ KC TOTAL- over when under 40 degrees, line inside 3 50-30 (62%)
- over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 125-87 (59%)
- over when under 40 degrees, late season 109-87 (56%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
CHI @ MIN TOTAL- over when under 40 degrees, late season 109-87 (56%)
- over when under 40 degrees 131-107 (55%)
OAK @ DEN TOTAL- over when high total (48+), home team off Monday night 22-11 (67%)
- over when late season, home team off Monday night 34-23 (60%)
- over when home team off Monday night 111-76 (59%)
JAX @ HOU TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 73-45 (62%)
CLE @ BAL TOTAL- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 151-115 (57%)
- over when on turf, a team looking ahead to a division game 273-219 (56%)
- over when on turf, a new starting QB 127-102 (56%)
BUF @ NE TOTAL- over when on turf, a new starting QB 127-102 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.