Weekly Lines · 2014
Week 8.
15 games and 13 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2014. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 6-7, -2.8u flat at -110. Season through week 8: 44-53, -21.7u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 SD @  DENThu, Oct 23 20:25 ET | DEN +9 | 51 | SD 21 at DEN 35DEN +9 closed · DEN covered |
 BAL @  CINSun, Oct 26 13:00 ET | CIN -2.5 | 44.5 | BAL 24 at CIN 27CIN -2.5 closed · CIN covered |
 BUF @  NYJSun, Oct 26 13:00 ET | NYJ +3 | 40 | BUF 43 at NYJ 23NYJ +3 closed · BUF covered |
 CHI @  NESun, Oct 26 13:00 ET | NE +5.5 | 51 | CHI 23 at NE 51NE +5.5 closed · NE covered |
 DET @  ATLSun, Oct 26 09:30 ET | ATL -3.5 | 45 | DET 22 at ATL 21ATL -3.5 closed · ATL covered |
 GB @  NOSun, Oct 26 20:30 ET | NO +2 | 55 | GB 23 at NO 44NO +2 closed · NO covered |
 HOU @  TENSun, Oct 26 13:00 ET | TEN -3.5 | 43 | HOU 30 at TEN 16TEN -3.5 closed · HOU covered |
 IND @  PITSun, Oct 26 16:25 ET | PIT -5 | 48 | IND 34 at PIT 51PIT -5 closed · PIT covered |
 MIA @  JAXSun, Oct 26 13:00 ET | JAX -7 | 42 | MIA 27 at JAX 13JAX -7 closed · MIA covered |
 MIN @  TBSun, Oct 26 13:00 ET | TB +1 | 43 | MIN 19 at TB 13TB +1 closed · MIN covered |
 OAK @  CLESun, Oct 26 16:25 ET | CLE +6.5 | 44.5 | OAK 13 at CLE 23CLE +6.5 closed · CLE covered |
 PHI @  ARISun, Oct 26 16:05 ET | ARI +1 | 49 | PHI 20 at ARI 24ARI +1 closed · ARI covered |
 SEA @  CARSun, Oct 26 13:00 ET | CAR -6 | 44.5 | SEA 13 at CAR 9CAR -6 closed · CAR covered |
 STL @  KCSun, Oct 26 13:00 ET | KC +7.5 | 44.5 | STL 7 at KC 34KC +7.5 closed · KC covered |
 WAS @  DALMon, Oct 27 20:30 ET | DAL +9.5 | 49 | WAS 20 at DAL 17DAL +9.5 closed · WAS covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
DET @ ATL WIN DET -3.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, better coach, on turf 79-44 (64%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, better coach, on turf 108-63 (63%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, on the road, better coach, on turf 53-31 (63%)
- and 5 more angles on this side
HOU @ TEN LOSS HOU -3.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, better record, division game 25-15 (62%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, elite QB 19-12 (61%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, better record, elite QB 19-12 (61%)
LAR @ KC LOSS KC -7.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, better coach 126-78 (62%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, at home, better coach 119-74 (62%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, won last week, better coach 58-38 (60%)
MIA @ JAC LOSS MIA -7 1.0u
- model fades them by 1.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road, better coach 49-30 (62%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, big favorite (7+), on the road, better coach 50-31 (62%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, big favorite (7+), on the road 59-37 (62%)
- and 5 more angles on this side
MIN @ TB LOSS MIN +1 2.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, underdog, less rest than the opponent, lost last week 23-12 (66%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, better record, better QB 13-7 (65%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, underdog, less rest than the opponent 36-22 (62%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
IND @ PIT TOTALWIN Over 48.0 1.0u
- over when high total (48+), home team off Monday night 22-11 (67%)
- over when home team off Monday night 111-76 (59%)
- over when a team looking ahead to a division game, home team off Monday night 60-46 (57%)
WAS @ DAL TOTALLOSS Over 49.0 1.0u
- over when on turf, a new starting QB 127-102 (56%)
- over when on turf, high total (48+) 92-74 (55%)
CHI @ NE TOTALWIN Over 51.0 1.0u
- over when on turf, a team looking ahead to a division game 273-219 (56%)
- over when on turf, high total (48+) 92-74 (55%)
BAL @ CIN TOTALWIN Over 44.5 1.0u
- over when on turf, a team looking ahead to a division game 273-219 (56%)
DET @ ATL TOTALLOSS Over 45.0 1.0u
- over when on turf, a team looking ahead to a division game 273-219 (56%)
PHI @ ARI TOTALWIN Under 49.0 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), line inside 3 61-45 (57%)
MIN @ TB TOTALLOSS Over 43.0 1.0u
- over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 125-87 (59%)
HOU @ TEN TOTALWIN Over 43.0 1.0u
- over when a new starting QB, road team off Monday night 27-9 (75%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.