Weekly Lines · 2014
Week 14.
16 games and 18 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2014. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 9-9, -5.3u flat at -110. Season through week 14: 90-100, -35.8u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 DAL @  CHIThu, Dec 4 20:25 ET | CHI -3.5 | 50.5 | DAL 41 at CHI 28CHI -3.5 closed · DAL covered |
 BAL @  MIASun, Dec 7 13:00 ET | MIA +3 | 45 | BAL 28 at MIA 13MIA +3 closed · BAL covered |
 BUF @  DENSun, Dec 7 16:05 ET | DEN +9 | 47 | BUF 17 at DEN 24DEN +9 closed · BUF covered |
 CAR @  NOSun, Dec 7 13:00 ET | NO +8.5 | 50.5 | CAR 41 at NO 10NO +8.5 closed · CAR covered |
 HOU @  JAXSun, Dec 7 13:00 ET | JAX -6.5 | 41.5 | HOU 27 at JAX 13JAX -6.5 closed · HOU covered |
 IND @  CLESun, Dec 7 13:00 ET | CLE -3 | 50 | IND 25 at CLE 24CLE -3 closed · CLE covered |
 KC @  ARISun, Dec 7 16:05 ET | ARI -2.5 | 41.5 | KC 14 at ARI 17ARI -2.5 closed · ARI covered |
 NE @  SDSun, Dec 7 20:30 ET | SD -4 | 53 | NE 23 at SD 14SD -4 closed · NE covered |
 NYG @  TENSun, Dec 7 13:00 ET | TEN -3 | 46.5 | NYG 36 at TEN 7TEN -3 closed · NYG covered |
 NYJ @  MINSun, Dec 7 13:00 ET | MIN +4.5 | 40.5 | NYJ 24 at MIN 30MIN +4.5 closed · MIN covered |
 PIT @  CINSun, Dec 7 13:00 ET | CIN +3 | 47 | PIT 42 at CIN 21CIN +3 closed · PIT covered |
 SEA @  PHISun, Dec 7 16:25 ET | PHI -1.5 | 48 | SEA 24 at PHI 14PHI -1.5 closed · SEA covered |
 SF @  OAKSun, Dec 7 16:25 ET | OAK -8 | 40 | SF 13 at OAK 24OAK -8 closed · OAK covered |
 STL @  WASSun, Dec 7 13:00 ET | WAS -2.5 | 44.5 | STL 24 at WAS 0WAS -2.5 closed · STL covered |
 TB @  DETSun, Dec 7 13:00 ET | DET +10.5 | 42 | TB 17 at DET 34DET +10.5 closed · DET covered |
 ATL @  GBMon, Dec 8 20:30 ET | GB +13.5 | 54.5 | ATL 37 at GB 43GB +13.5 closed · ATL covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
ATL @ GB LOSS ATL +13.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, big underdog (7+), on the road, won last week 23-14 (62%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, big underdog (7+), won last week 26-16 (62%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, big underdog (7+), won last week 26-16 (62%)
- and 6 more angles on this side
BUF @ DEN LOSS BUF +9 1.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, big underdog (7+), on the road, won last week 23-14 (62%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, big underdog (7+), won last week 26-16 (62%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, big underdog (7+), won last week 26-16 (62%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
HOU @ JAC WIN HOU -6.5 1.0u
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, better QB, division game 83-49 (63%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, elite QB 27-16 (63%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, elite QB, division game 42-27 (61%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
LAR @ WAS WIN LAR -2.5 1.0u
- model likes them by 1.0+, favorite, on the road, won last week 66-43 (61%)
BAL @ MIA WIN MIA -3 1.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better coach 52-33 (61%)
PIT @ CIN LOSS PIT +3 2.0u
- model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, elite QB, division game 16-7 (70%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, elite QB, on turf 19-9 (68%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, elite QB, division game 22-11 (67%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
SEA @ PHI LOSS SEA -1.5 2.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, won last week, worse record, elite QB 14-7 (67%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, on the road, blew someone out last week 57-32 (64%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 42-24 (64%)
- and 7 more angles on this side
TB @ DET LOSS TB +10.5 3.0u
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, elite QB 19-7 (73%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, elite QB 21-8 (72%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, lost last week, elite QB, in a dome 28-14 (67%)
- and 13 more angles on this side
NYG @ TEN LOSS TEN +3 1.0u
- model likes them by 1.0+, lost last week, better QB, better coach 77-50 (61%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, worse record, better QB, better coach 63-41 (61%)
ATL @ GB TOTALWIN Over 54.5 1.0u
- over when under 40 degrees, late season 109-87 (56%)
- over when under 40 degrees 131-107 (55%)
PIT @ CIN TOTALWIN Over 47.0 1.0u
- over when under 40 degrees, line inside 3 50-30 (62%)
- over when under 40 degrees, late season 109-87 (56%)
- over when on turf, a team looking ahead to a division game 273-219 (56%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
DAL @ CHI TOTALWIN Over 50.5 1.0u
- over when under 40 degrees, late season 109-87 (56%)
- over when under 40 degrees 131-107 (55%)
BAL @ MIA TOTALLOSS Over 45.0 1.0u
- over when line inside 3, home team off Monday night 50-24 (68%)
- over when late season, home team off Monday night 34-23 (60%)
- over when home team off Monday night 111-76 (59%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
HOU @ JAX TOTALWIN Under 41.5 1.0u
- under when windy, division game 57-40 (59%)
CAR @ NO TOTALWIN Over 50.5 1.0u
- over when on turf, a team looking ahead to a division game 273-219 (56%)
- over when on turf, high total (48+) 92-74 (55%)
TB @ DET TOTALWIN Over 42.0 1.0u
- over when on turf, a team looking ahead to a division game 273-219 (56%)
KC @ ARI TOTALLOSS Over 41.5 1.0u
- over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 125-87 (59%)
STL @ WAS TOTALLOSS Over 44.5 1.0u
- over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 125-87 (59%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.