Weekly Lines · 2014
Week 6.
15 games and 12 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2014. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 7-5, -0.9u flat at -110. Season through week 6: 31-43, -23.4u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 IND @  HOUThu, Oct 9 20:25 ET | HOU -2.5 | 46 | IND 33 at HOU 28HOU -2.5 closed · IND covered |
 BAL @  TBSun, Oct 12 13:00 ET | TB -3.5 | 44 | BAL 48 at TB 17TB -3.5 closed · BAL covered |
 CAR @  CINSun, Oct 12 13:00 ET | CIN +7 | 43.5 | CAR 37 at CIN 37CIN +7 closed · CAR covered |
 CHI @  ATLSun, Oct 12 16:25 ET | ATL +3.5 | 55.5 | CHI 27 at ATL 13ATL +3.5 closed · CHI covered |
 DAL @  SEASun, Oct 12 16:25 ET | SEA +10 | 47 | DAL 30 at SEA 23SEA +10 closed · DAL covered |
 DEN @  NYJSun, Oct 12 13:00 ET | NYJ -10 | 47 | DEN 31 at NYJ 17NYJ -10 closed · DEN covered |
 DET @  MINSun, Oct 12 13:00 ET | MIN +1 | 43 | DET 17 at MIN 3MIN +1 closed · DET covered |
 GB @  MIASun, Oct 12 13:00 ET | MIA -1.5 | 46.5 | GB 27 at MIA 24MIA -1.5 closed · GB covered |
 JAX @  TENSun, Oct 12 13:00 ET | TEN +4 | 42.5 | JAX 14 at TEN 16TEN +4 closed · JAX covered |
 NE @  BUFSun, Oct 12 13:00 ET | BUF +1 | 44 | NE 37 at BUF 22BUF +1 closed · NE covered |
 NYG @  PHISun, Oct 12 20:30 ET | PHI +1 | 50.5 | NYG 0 at PHI 27PHI +1 closed · PHI covered |
 PIT @  CLESun, Oct 12 13:00 ET | CLE +2.5 | 46.5 | PIT 10 at CLE 31CLE +2.5 closed · CLE covered |
 SD @  OAKSun, Oct 12 16:05 ET | OAK -7 | 43.5 | SD 31 at OAK 28OAK -7 closed · OAK covered |
 WAS @  ARISun, Oct 12 16:25 ET | ARI +5 | 47 | WAS 20 at ARI 30ARI +5 closed · ARI covered |
 SF @  STLMon, Oct 13 20:30 ET | STL -3.5 | 44 | SF 31 at STL 17STL -3.5 closed · SF covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
WAS @ ARI LOSS ARI -5 3.0u
- model fades them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, better coach, in a dome 20-6 (77%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, got blown out last week, better coach, in a dome 21-9 (70%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, better record, better coach 17-9 (65%)
- and 23 more angles on this side
CAR @ CIN WIN CIN -7 3.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, got blown out last week, elite QB, on turf 14-6 (70%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, elite QB, on turf 14-6 (70%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, got blown out last week, better QB, on turf 29-18 (62%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
DEN @ NYJ LOSS DEN -10 2.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road, elite QB 33-15 (69%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road, elite QB 39-18 (68%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, on turf 33-16 (67%)
- and 54 more angles on this side
GB @ MIA LOSS GB -1.5 2.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better record 48-25 (66%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, on the road, blew someone out last week 57-32 (64%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, elite QB 20-12 (62%)
- and 11 more angles on this side
DAL @ SEA TOTALWIN Over 47.0 1.0u
- over when home team off Monday night, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 27-12 (69%)
- over when early season, home team off Monday night 40-19 (68%)
- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 51-31 (62%)
- and 4 more angles on this side
WAS @ ARI TOTALWIN Over 47.0 1.0u
- over when a new starting QB, road team off Monday night 27-9 (75%)
- over when in a dome, road team off Monday night 14-8 (64%)
- over when a new starting QB, early season 56-33 (63%)
CHI @ ATL TOTALLOSS Over 55.5 1.0u
- over when on turf, high total (48+) 92-74 (55%)
NE @ BUF TOTALWIN Over 44.0 1.0u
- over when a new starting QB, early season 56-33 (63%)
- over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 125-87 (59%)
- over when on turf, a team looking ahead to a division game 273-219 (56%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
DEN @ NYJ TOTALWIN Over 47.0 1.0u
- over when on turf, a team looking ahead to a division game 273-219 (56%)
DET @ MIN TOTALLOSS Over 43.0 1.0u
- over when a new starting QB, early season 56-33 (63%)
- over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 125-87 (59%)
- over when on turf, a new starting QB 127-102 (56%)
NYG @ PHI TOTALWIN Under 50.5 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), line inside 3 61-45 (57%)
BAL @ TB TOTALWIN Over 44.0 1.0u
- over when a new starting QB, early season 56-33 (63%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.