Weekly Lines · 2014
Week 13.
16 games and 10 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2014. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 6-4, +0.5u flat at -110. Season through week 13: 81-91, -30.5u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 CHI @  DETThu, Nov 27 12:30 ET | DET +7.5 | 46 | CHI 17 at DET 34DET +7.5 closed · DET covered |
 PHI @  DALThu, Nov 27 16:30 ET | DAL +3 | 56.5 | PHI 33 at DAL 10DAL +3 closed · PHI covered |
 SEA @  SFThu, Nov 27 20:30 ET | SF +1 | 40 | SEA 19 at SF 3SF +1 closed · SEA covered |
 ARI @  ATLSun, Nov 30 16:05 ET | ATL -1.5 | 45.5 | ARI 18 at ATL 29ATL -1.5 closed · ATL covered |
 CAR @  MINSun, Nov 30 13:00 ET | MIN +2.5 | 41.5 | CAR 13 at MIN 31MIN +2.5 closed · MIN covered |
 CIN @  TBSun, Nov 30 13:00 ET | TB -6 | 43.5 | CIN 14 at TB 13TB -6 closed · TB covered |
 CLE @  BUFSun, Nov 30 13:00 ET | BUF +3 | 42 | CLE 10 at BUF 26BUF +3 closed · BUF covered |
 DEN @  KCSun, Nov 30 20:30 ET | KC +1 | 49 | DEN 29 at KC 16KC +1 closed · DEN covered |
 NE @  GBSun, Nov 30 16:25 ET | GB +3 | 57 | NE 21 at GB 26GB +3 closed · GB covered |
 NO @  PITSun, Nov 30 13:00 ET | PIT +3.5 | 54.5 | NO 35 at PIT 32PIT +3.5 closed · NO covered |
 NYG @  JAXSun, Nov 30 13:00 ET | JAX -3 | 44 | NYG 24 at JAX 25JAX -3 closed · JAX covered |
 OAK @  STLSun, Nov 30 13:00 ET | STL +6.5 | 43 | OAK 0 at STL 52STL +6.5 closed · STL covered |
 SD @  BALSun, Nov 30 13:00 ET | BAL +6.5 | 45.5 | SD 34 at BAL 33BAL +6.5 closed · SD covered |
 TEN @  HOUSun, Nov 30 13:00 ET | HOU +7 | 43 | TEN 21 at HOU 45HOU +7 closed · HOU covered |
 WAS @  INDSun, Nov 30 13:00 ET | IND +7.5 | 48.5 | WAS 27 at IND 49IND +7.5 closed · IND covered |
 MIA @  NYJMon, Dec 1 20:30 ET | NYJ -6.5 | 41.5 | MIA 16 at NYJ 13NYJ -6.5 closed · NYJ covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
CAR @ MIN - model likes them by 2.0+, on the road, lost last week, better QB 67-41 (62%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, lost last week, better QB 88-56 (61%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, lost last week, better QB, better coach 77-50 (61%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
CHI @ DET - model likes them by 0.5+, big underdog (7+), division game, in a dome 26-14 (65%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, big underdog (7+), better QB, division game 26-17 (60%)
CIN @ TB - model fades them by 0.5+, favorite, worse QB, elite QB 14-9 (61%)
LV @ 
LAR - model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, better record, in a dome 21-13 (62%)
SEA @ SF - model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, elite QB, low total (41 or under) 31-17 (65%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, better QB, division game 83-49 (63%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, elite QB 27-16 (63%)
- and 7 more angles on this side
MIA @ NYJ TOTAL- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 51-31 (62%)
- over when late season, home team off Monday night 34-23 (60%)
- over when home team off Monday night 111-76 (59%)
SD @ BAL TOTAL- over when home team off Monday night, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 27-12 (69%)
- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 51-31 (62%)
- over when late season, home team off Monday night 34-23 (60%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
NO @ PIT TOTAL- over when high total (48+), home team off Monday night 22-11 (67%)
- over when late season, home team off Monday night 34-23 (60%)
- over when home team off Monday night 111-76 (59%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
WAS @ IND TOTAL- over when on turf, a new starting QB 127-102 (56%)
- over when on turf, high total (48+) 92-74 (55%)
ARI @ ATL TOTAL- over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 125-87 (59%)
- over when on turf, a new starting QB 127-102 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.