Weekly Lines · 2014
Week 5.
15 games and 13 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2014. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 4-9, -8.1u flat at -110. Season through week 5: 24-38, -22.5u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 MIN @  GBThu, Oct 2 20:25 ET | GB +8.5 | 46.5 | MIN 10 at GB 42GB +8.5 closed · GB covered |
 ARI @  DENSun, Oct 5 16:05 ET | DEN +8 | 47 | ARI 20 at DEN 41DEN +8 closed · DEN covered |
 ATL @  NYGSun, Oct 5 13:00 ET | NYG +4 | 50.5 | ATL 20 at NYG 30NYG +4 closed · NYG covered |
 BAL @  INDSun, Oct 5 13:00 ET | IND +2.5 | 49.5 | BAL 13 at IND 20IND +2.5 closed · IND covered |
 BUF @  DETSun, Oct 5 13:00 ET | DET +4.5 | 43 | BUF 17 at DET 14DET +4.5 closed · BUF covered |
 CHI @  CARSun, Oct 5 13:00 ET | CAR +1.5 | 46.5 | CHI 24 at CAR 31CAR +1.5 closed · CAR covered |
 CIN @  NESun, Oct 5 20:30 ET | NE -2.5 | 46 | CIN 17 at NE 43NE -2.5 closed · NE covered |
 CLE @  TENSun, Oct 5 13:00 ET | TEN -1 | 44.5 | CLE 29 at TEN 28TEN -1 closed · push |
 HOU @  DALSun, Oct 5 13:00 ET | DAL +5 | 47.5 | HOU 17 at DAL 20DAL +5 closed · HOU covered |
 KC @  SFSun, Oct 5 16:25 ET | SF +4 | 43.5 | KC 17 at SF 22SF +4 closed · SF covered |
 NYJ @  SDSun, Oct 5 16:25 ET | SD +7 | 44.5 | NYJ 0 at SD 31SD +7 closed · SD covered |
 PIT @  JAXSun, Oct 5 13:00 ET | JAX -6 | 47 | PIT 17 at JAX 9JAX -6 closed · PIT covered |
 STL @  PHISun, Oct 5 13:00 ET | PHI +3.5 | 48 | STL 28 at PHI 34PHI +3.5 closed · PHI covered |
 TB @  NOSun, Oct 5 13:00 ET | NO +11 | 47.5 | TB 31 at NO 37NO +11 closed · TB covered |
 SEA @  WASMon, Oct 6 20:30 ET | WAS -7 | 45.5 | SEA 27 at WAS 17WAS -7 closed · SEA covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
ARI @ DEN WIN DEN -8 1.0u
- model likes them by 0.5+, favorite, worse record, elite QB 25-14 (64%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, favorite, worse record, better QB 30-20 (60%)
NYJ @ 
LAC LOSS LAC -7 1.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), blew someone out last week, better QB 33-19 (64%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, better coach 126-78 (62%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, big favorite (7+), blew someone out last week, better QB 42-26 (62%)
- and 7 more angles on this side
CIN @ NE LOSS NE +2.5 2.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, got blown out last week, worse record 16-8 (67%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, less rest than the opponent, got blown out last week 16-10 (62%)
SEA @ WAS LOSS SEA -7 2.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road, elite QB 33-15 (69%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road, elite QB 39-18 (68%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road, better QB 47-27 (64%)
- and 11 more angles on this side
KC @ SF WIN SF -4 1.0u
- model likes them by 0.5+, favorite, more rest than the opponent, won last week 39-25 (61%)
CIN @ NE TOTALWIN Over 46.0 1.0u
- over when rain in the forecast, home team off Monday night 21-4 (84%)
- over when early season, home team off Monday night 40-19 (68%)
- over when line inside 3, home team off Monday night 50-24 (68%)
- and 4 more angles on this side
ATL @ NYG TOTALLOSS Over 50.5 1.0u
- over when on turf, a team looking ahead to a division game 273-219 (56%)
- over when on turf, high total (48+) 92-74 (55%)
HOU @ DAL TOTALLOSS Over 47.5 1.0u
- over when on turf, a team looking ahead to a division game 273-219 (56%)
BUF @ DET TOTALLOSS Over 43.0 1.0u
- over when a new starting QB, early season 56-33 (63%)
- over when on turf, a team looking ahead to a division game 273-219 (56%)
- over when on turf, a new starting QB 127-102 (56%)
TB @ NO TOTALWIN Over 47.5 1.0u
- over when a new starting QB, early season 56-33 (63%)
- over when on turf, a new starting QB 127-102 (56%)
NYJ @ SD TOTALLOSS Over 44.5 1.0u
- over when home team a big favorite, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 74-58 (56%)
SEA @ WAS TOTALLOSS Over 45.5 1.0u
- over when a new starting QB, early season 56-33 (63%)
PIT @ JAX TOTALLOSS Over 47.0 1.0u
- over when a new starting QB, early season 56-33 (63%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.