New: Be A GM College lets you run your NIL budget, fight the portal, and play the season. Try it. →

Weekly Lines · 2014

Week 9.

13 games and 16 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2014. Every number is open.

This week's plays: 10-6, +4.4u flat at -110. Season through week 9: 54-59, -17.3u flat at -110.

GameMarketTotalFinal
NO @ CARThu, Oct 30 20:25 ETCAR -348.5NO 28 at CAR 10CAR -3 closed · NO covered
ARI @ DALSun, Nov 2 13:00 ETDAL +1.545ARI 28 at DAL 17DAL +1.5 closed · ARI covered
BAL @ PITSun, Nov 2 20:30 ETPIT +2.547.5BAL 23 at PIT 43PIT +2.5 closed · PIT covered
DEN @ NESun, Nov 2 16:25 ETNE -352.5DEN 21 at NE 43NE -3 closed · NE covered
JAX @ CINSun, Nov 2 13:00 ETCIN +1044JAX 23 at CIN 33CIN +10 closed · push
NYJ @ KCSun, Nov 2 13:00 ETKC +9.541.5NYJ 10 at KC 24KC +9.5 closed · KC covered
OAK @ SEASun, Nov 2 16:25 ETSEA +13.543.5OAK 24 at SEA 30SEA +13.5 closed · OAK covered
PHI @ HOUSun, Nov 2 13:00 ETHOU -1.548.5PHI 31 at HOU 21HOU -1.5 closed · PHI covered
SD @ MIASun, Nov 2 13:00 ETMIA +345.5SD 0 at MIA 37MIA +3 closed · MIA covered
STL @ SFSun, Nov 2 16:05 ETSF +10.544STL 13 at SF 10SF +10.5 closed · STL covered
TB @ CLESun, Nov 2 13:00 ETCLE +744TB 17 at CLE 22CLE +7 closed · TB covered
WAS @ MINSun, Nov 2 13:00 ETMIN -143.5WAS 26 at MIN 29MIN -1 closed · MIN covered
IND @ NYGMon, Nov 3 20:30 ETNYG -351IND 40 at NYG 24NYG -3 closed · IND covered
The market line as posted, and how each game finished.

The plays

A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.

The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each

ARI @ DAL
LOSS ARI +1.5 1.0u
  • model fades them by 1.0+, won last week, better coach, in a dome 64-35 (65%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, better coach, in a dome 71-39 (64%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, won last week, better coach, in a dome 69-39 (64%)
  • and 15 more angles on this side
DEN @ NE
WIN DEN -3 2.0u
  • model fades them by 0.5+, more rest than the opponent, on turf, high total (48+) 16-7 (70%)
  • model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, on turf 33-16 (67%)
  • model fades them by 2.0+, better QB, on turf, high total (48+) 27-15 (64%)
  • and 24 more angles on this side
NYJ @ KC
LOSS KC -9.5 1.0u
  • model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), blew someone out last week, better QB 33-19 (64%)
  • model fades them by 3.0+, at home, better coach 126-78 (62%)
  • model fades them by 2.0+, big favorite (7+), blew someone out last week, better QB 42-26 (62%)
  • and 5 more angles on this side
NO @ CAR
LOSS NO -3 1.0u
  • model fades them by 0.5+, favorite, blew someone out last week, division game 62-38 (62%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, blew someone out last week, division game 41-27 (60%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, division game 36-24 (60%)
BAL @ PIT
LOSS PIT -2.5 1.0u
  • model fades them by 2.0+, at home, better coach, division game 69-38 (64%)
  • model fades them by 2.0+, won last week, better coach, division game 71-41 (63%)
  • model fades them by 2.0+, blew someone out last week, better coach, division game 27-16 (63%)
  • and 6 more angles on this side
LV @ SEA
WIN SEA -13.5 1.0u
  • model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), elite QB, on turf 36-20 (64%)
  • model fades them by 3.0+, better QB, better coach, on turf 57-32 (64%)
  • model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, better coach, on turf 91-56 (62%)
  • and 8 more angles on this side
WAS @ MIN
WIN WAS -1 1.0u
  • model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, won last week 45-28 (62%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, won last week 49-31 (61%)
BAL @ PIT TOTAL
WIN Over 47.5 1.0u
  • over when under 40 degrees, line inside 3 50-30 (62%)
  • over when under 40 degrees 131-107 (55%)
NYJ @ KC TOTAL
WIN Under 41.5 1.0u
  • under when windy, home team a big favorite 32-22 (59%)
SD @ MIA TOTAL
WIN Under 45.5 1.0u
  • under when windy, line inside 3 48-37 (56%)
OAK @ SEA TOTAL
WIN Over 43.5 1.0u
  • over when on turf, a team looking ahead to a division game 273-219 (56%)
JAX @ CIN TOTAL
WIN Over 44.0 1.0u
  • over when on turf, a team looking ahead to a division game 273-219 (56%)
WAS @ MIN TOTAL
WIN Over 43.5 1.0u
  • over when a new starting QB, road team off Monday night 27-9 (75%)
  • over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 125-87 (59%)
  • over when on turf, a team looking ahead to a division game 273-219 (56%)
  • and 1 more angle on this side
PHI @ HOU TOTAL
LOSS Under 48.5 1.0u
  • under when high total (48+), line inside 3 61-45 (57%)
NO @ CAR TOTAL
WIN Under 48.5 1.0u
  • under when high total (48+), line inside 3 61-45 (57%)
STL @ SF TOTAL
LOSS Over 44.0 1.0u
  • over when home team a big favorite, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 74-58 (56%)

Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.

← Week 8 The 2014 record Week 10 →

Go deeper

Opens This week's board Plays, trends and college leans Matchup previews Shop every book