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Weekly Lines · 2014

Week 12.

15 games and 17 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2014. Every number is open.

This week's plays: 7-10, -2.0u flat at -110. Season through week 12: 75-87, -31.0u flat at -110.

GameMarketTotalFinal
KC @ OAKThu, Nov 20 20:25 ETOAK -7.542KC 20 at OAK 24OAK -7.5 closed · OAK covered
ARI @ SEASun, Nov 23 16:05 ETSEA +7.542ARI 3 at SEA 19SEA +7.5 closed · SEA covered
CIN @ HOUSun, Nov 23 13:00 ETHOU +344.5CIN 22 at HOU 13HOU +3 closed · CIN covered
CLE @ ATLSun, Nov 23 13:00 ETATL +348.5CLE 26 at ATL 24ATL +3 closed · CLE covered
DAL @ NYGSun, Nov 23 20:30 ETNYG -448.5DAL 31 at NYG 28NYG -4 closed · NYG covered
DET @ NESun, Nov 23 13:00 ETNE +7.547.5DET 9 at NE 34NE +7.5 closed · NE covered
GB @ MINSun, Nov 23 13:00 ETMIN -7.550GB 24 at MIN 21MIN -7.5 closed · MIN covered
JAX @ INDSun, Nov 23 13:00 ETIND +1349JAX 3 at IND 23IND +13 closed · IND covered
MIA @ DENSun, Nov 23 16:25 ETDEN +6.547.5MIA 36 at DEN 39DEN +6.5 closed · MIA covered
STL @ SDSun, Nov 23 16:05 ETSD +443.5STL 24 at SD 27SD +4 closed · STL covered
TB @ CHISun, Nov 23 13:00 ETCHI +447TB 13 at CHI 21CHI +4 closed · CHI covered
TEN @ PHISun, Nov 23 13:00 ETPHI +1149TEN 24 at PHI 43PHI +11 closed · PHI covered
WAS @ SFSun, Nov 23 16:25 ETSF +944WAS 13 at SF 17SF +9 closed · WAS covered
BAL @ NOMon, Nov 24 20:30 ETNO +2.550.5BAL 34 at NO 27NO +2.5 closed · BAL covered
NYJ @ BUFMon, Nov 24 19:00 ETBUF +2.542NYJ 3 at BUF 38BUF +2.5 closed · BUF covered
The market line as posted, and how each game finished.

The plays

A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.

The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each

CLE @ ATL
WIN ATL -3 2.0u
  • model fades them by 1.0+, won last week, in a dome, high total (48+) 36-18 (67%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, won last week, in a dome, high total (48+) 38-19 (67%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, worse record, better QB, in a dome 29-16 (64%)
  • and 12 more angles on this side
MIA @ DEN
WIN DEN -6.5 2.0u
  • model fades them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, better record, better coach 17-9 (65%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, at home, got blown out last week, better coach 34-18 (65%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, better QB, better coach 33-18 (65%)
  • and 10 more angles on this side
GB @ MIN
LOSS GB -7.5 1.0u
  • model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, better QB, high total (48+) 29-16 (64%)
  • model likes them by 1.0+, blew someone out last week, better QB, high total (48+) 17-10 (63%)
  • model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, better QB, division game 83-49 (63%)
  • and 19 more angles on this side
KC @ LV
WIN KC -7.5 1.0u
  • model fades them by 0.5+, big favorite (7+), on the road, better coach 50-31 (62%)
LAR @ LAC
LOSS LAR +4 1.0u
  • model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, worse QB 36-24 (60%)
DET @ NE
LOSS NE -7.5 1.0u
  • model fades them by 3.0+, blew someone out last week, better QB, on turf 24-13 (65%)
  • model fades them by 3.0+, better QB, better coach, on turf 57-32 (64%)
  • model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), blew someone out last week, better QB 33-19 (64%)
  • and 17 more angles on this side
NYJ @ BUF
LOSS NYJ +2.5 1.0u
  • model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, worse record, division game 78-51 (60%)
WAS @ SF
WIN SF -9 1.0u
  • model fades them by 3.0+, at home, better coach 126-78 (62%)
  • model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, at home, better coach 119-74 (62%)
  • model fades them by 3.0+, at home, won last week, better coach 58-38 (60%)
  • and 1 more angle on this side
TB @ CHI
LOSS TB +4 1.0u
  • model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, elite QB 27-16 (63%)
  • model likes them by 1.0+, worse record, better QB, better coach 63-41 (61%)
  • model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, better QB, elite QB 97-64 (60%)
  • and 2 more angles on this side
MIA @ DEN TOTAL
WIN Over 47.5 1.0u
  • over when under 40 degrees 131-107 (55%)
DAL @ NYG TOTAL
WIN Over 48.5 1.0u
  • over when on turf, a team looking ahead to a division game 273-219 (56%)
  • over when on turf, high total (48+) 92-74 (55%)
JAX @ IND TOTAL
LOSS Over 49.0 1.0u
  • over when on turf, high total (48+) 92-74 (55%)
NYJ @ BUF TOTAL
LOSS Over 42.0 1.0u
  • over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 125-87 (59%)
  • over when on turf, a team looking ahead to a division game 273-219 (56%)
  • over when on turf, a new starting QB 127-102 (56%)
DET @ NE TOTAL
LOSS Over 47.5 1.0u
  • over when on turf, a team looking ahead to a division game 273-219 (56%)
WAS @ SF TOTAL
LOSS Over 44.0 1.0u
  • over when home team a big favorite, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 74-58 (56%)
CIN @ HOU TOTAL
LOSS Over 44.5 1.0u
  • over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 125-87 (59%)
TEN @ PHI TOTAL
WIN Over 49.0 1.0u
  • over when a new starting QB, road team off Monday night 27-9 (75%)

Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.

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