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Weekly Lines · 2014

Week 15.

16 games and 17 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2014. Every number is open.

This week's plays: 5-12, -8.4u flat at -110. Season through week 15: 95-112, -44.2u flat at -110.

GameMarketTotalFinal
ARI @ STLThu, Dec 11 20:25 ETSTL +640.5ARI 12 at STL 6STL +6 closed · ARI covered
CIN @ CLESun, Dec 14 13:00 ETCLE +2.544CIN 30 at CLE 0CLE +2.5 closed · CIN covered
DAL @ PHISun, Dec 14 20:30 ETPHI +3.554.5DAL 38 at PHI 27PHI +3.5 closed · DAL covered
DEN @ SDSun, Dec 14 16:05 ETSD -449DEN 22 at SD 10SD -4 closed · DEN covered
GB @ BUFSun, Dec 14 13:00 ETBUF -3.549.5GB 13 at BUF 21BUF -3.5 closed · BUF covered
HOU @ INDSun, Dec 14 13:00 ETIND +749HOU 10 at IND 17IND +7 closed · push
JAX @ BALSun, Dec 14 13:00 ETBAL +1444.5JAX 12 at BAL 20BAL +14 closed · JAX covered
MIA @ NESun, Dec 14 13:00 ETNE +9.549MIA 13 at NE 41NE +9.5 closed · NE covered
MIN @ DETSun, Dec 14 16:25 ETDET +842.5MIN 14 at DET 16DET +8 closed · MIN covered
NYJ @ TENSun, Dec 14 16:05 ETTEN -3.542NYJ 16 at TEN 11TEN -3.5 closed · NYJ covered
OAK @ KCSun, Dec 14 13:00 ETKC +1141.5OAK 13 at KC 31KC +11 closed · KC covered
PIT @ ATLSun, Dec 14 13:00 ETATL -355PIT 27 at ATL 20ATL -3 closed · PIT covered
SF @ SEASun, Dec 14 16:25 ETSEA +1038SF 7 at SEA 17SEA +10 closed · push
TB @ CARSun, Dec 14 13:00 ETCAR +3.541TB 17 at CAR 19CAR +3.5 closed · TB covered
WAS @ NYGSun, Dec 14 13:00 ETNYG +746.5WAS 13 at NYG 24NYG +7 closed · NYG covered
NO @ CHIMon, Dec 15 20:30 ETCHI -353.5NO 31 at CHI 15CHI -3 closed · NO covered
The market line as posted, and how each game finished.

The plays

A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.

The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each

CIN @ CLE
LOSS CIN +2.5 2.0u
  • model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, elite QB, division game 16-7 (70%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, elite QB, division game 22-11 (67%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, better QB, elite QB 25-13 (66%)
  • and 39 more angles on this side
DAL @ PHI
WIN DAL +3.5 1.0u
  • model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, better QB, high total (48+) 29-16 (64%)
  • model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, better QB, division game 83-49 (63%)
  • model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, better QB, high total (48+) 30-18 (62%)
  • and 6 more angles on this side
DEN @ LAC
LOSS DEN -4 1.0u
  • model fades them by 2.0+, won last week, better coach, division game 71-41 (63%)
  • model fades them by 3.0+, better coach, division game 97-63 (61%)
  • model fades them by 3.0+, won last week, better coach, division game 49-32 (60%)
  • and 2 more angles on this side
MIN @ DET
WIN DET -8 3.0u
  • model fades them by 2.0+, blew someone out last week, better record, in a dome 25-8 (76%)
  • model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, blew someone out last week, in a dome 21-7 (75%)
  • model fades them by 2.0+, big favorite (7+), division game, in a dome 20-7 (74%)
  • and 80 more angles on this side
NO @ CHI
LOSS NO -3 2.0u
  • model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, elite QB, better coach 21-11 (66%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, better QB, better coach 33-18 (65%)
  • model fades them by 3.0+, on the road, got blown out last week, better coach 20-11 (64%)
  • and 28 more angles on this side
TB @ CAR
WIN TB +3.5 1.0u
  • model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, elite QB, low total (41 or under) 31-17 (65%)
  • model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, better QB, division game 83-49 (63%)
  • model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, got blown out last week, division game 37-22 (63%)
  • and 6 more angles on this side
GB @ BUF TOTAL
LOSS Over 49.5 1.0u
  • over when late season, road team off Monday night 19-13 (59%)
  • over when under 40 degrees, late season 109-87 (56%)
  • over when on turf, high total (48+) 92-74 (55%)
  • and 1 more angle on this side
OAK @ KC TOTAL
LOSS Under 41.5 1.0u
  • under when windy, home team a big favorite 32-22 (59%)
  • under when windy, division game 57-40 (59%)
ARI @ STL TOTAL
LOSS Over 40.5 1.0u
  • over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 73-45 (62%)
HOU @ IND TOTAL
LOSS Over 49.0 1.0u
  • over when on turf, high total (48+) 92-74 (55%)
MIA @ NE TOTAL
WIN Over 49.0 1.0u
  • over when on turf, a team looking ahead to a division game 273-219 (56%)
  • over when on turf, high total (48+) 92-74 (55%)
SF @ SEA TOTAL
LOSS Over 38.0 1.0u
  • over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 151-115 (57%)
  • over when on turf, a team looking ahead to a division game 273-219 (56%)
MIN @ DET TOTAL
LOSS Over 42.5 1.0u
  • over when on turf, a team looking ahead to a division game 273-219 (56%)
JAX @ BAL TOTAL
LOSS Over 44.5 1.0u
  • over when on turf, a team looking ahead to a division game 273-219 (56%)
WAS @ NYG TOTAL
LOSS Over 46.5 1.0u
  • over when on turf, a team looking ahead to a division game 273-219 (56%)
  • over when on turf, a new starting QB 127-102 (56%)
NO @ CHI TOTAL
WIN Under 53.5 1.0u
  • under when high total (48+), line inside 3 61-45 (57%)
CIN @ CLE TOTAL
LOSS Over 44.0 1.0u
  • over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 125-87 (59%)

Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.

← Week 14 The 2014 record Week 16 →

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