Weekly Lines · 2014
Week 2.
16 games and 12 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2014. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 4-8, -4.8u flat at -110. Season through week 2: 7-14, -8.5u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 PIT @  BALThu, Sep 11 20:25 ET | BAL +2.5 | 44 | PIT 6 at BAL 26BAL +2.5 closed · BAL covered |
 ARI @  NYGSun, Sep 14 13:00 ET | NYG +1 | 41.5 | ARI 25 at NYG 14NYG +1 closed · ARI covered |
 ATL @  CINSun, Sep 14 13:00 ET | CIN +5.5 | 48.5 | ATL 10 at CIN 24CIN +5.5 closed · CIN covered |
 CHI @  SFSun, Sep 14 20:30 ET | SF +7 | 47 | CHI 28 at SF 20SF +7 closed · CHI covered |
 DAL @  TENSun, Sep 14 13:00 ET | TEN +3 | 49.5 | DAL 26 at TEN 10TEN +3 closed · DAL covered |
 DET @  CARSun, Sep 14 13:00 ET | CAR +1 | 43.5 | DET 7 at CAR 24CAR +1 closed · CAR covered |
 HOU @  OAKSun, Sep 14 16:25 ET | OAK -3 | 41 | HOU 30 at OAK 14OAK -3 closed · HOU covered |
 JAX @  WASSun, Sep 14 13:00 ET | WAS +5 | 43 | JAX 10 at WAS 41WAS +5 closed · WAS covered |
 KC @  DENSun, Sep 14 16:25 ET | DEN +13 | 49 | KC 17 at DEN 24DEN +13 closed · KC covered |
 MIA @  BUFSun, Sep 14 13:00 ET | BUF +1 | 43 | MIA 10 at BUF 29BUF +1 closed · BUF covered |
 NE @  MINSun, Sep 14 13:00 ET | MIN -3.5 | 49 | NE 30 at MIN 7MIN -3.5 closed · NE covered |
 NO @  CLESun, Sep 14 13:00 ET | CLE -4.5 | 49.5 | NO 24 at CLE 26CLE -4.5 closed · CLE covered |
 NYJ @  GBSun, Sep 14 16:25 ET | GB +7 | 46.5 | NYJ 24 at GB 31GB +7 closed · push |
 SEA @  SDSun, Sep 14 16:05 ET | SD -4.5 | 45 | SEA 21 at SD 30SD -4.5 closed · SD covered |
 STL @  TBSun, Sep 14 16:05 ET | TB +4 | 37.5 | STL 19 at TB 17TB +4 closed · STL covered |
 PHI @  INDMon, Sep 15 20:30 ET | IND +3 | 53.5 | PHI 30 at IND 27IND +3 closed · PHI covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
DET @ CAR - model likes them by 0.5+, favorite, more rest than the opponent, better QB 39-25 (61%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, favorite, more rest than the opponent, won last week 39-25 (61%)
MIA @ BUF - model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, better QB, division game 83-49 (63%)
- model likes them by 2.0+, on the road, better QB, division game 58-35 (62%)
LAR @ TB - model likes them by 1.0+, lost last week, better QB, better coach 77-50 (61%)
SEA @ SD TOTAL- over when early season, home team off Monday night 40-19 (68%)
- over when home team off Monday night 111-76 (59%)
ARI @ NYG TOTAL- over when home team off Monday night, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 27-12 (69%)
- over when early season, home team off Monday night 40-19 (68%)
- over when line inside 3, home team off Monday night 50-24 (68%)
- and 4 more angles on this side
NYJ @ GB TOTAL- under when windy, home team a big favorite 32-22 (59%)
ATL @ CIN TOTAL- over when on turf, a team looking ahead to a division game 273-219 (56%)
- over when on turf, high total (48+) 92-74 (55%)
NE @ MIN TOTAL- over when on turf, high total (48+) 92-74 (55%)
PIT @ BAL TOTAL- over when on turf, a team looking ahead to a division game 273-219 (56%)
DAL @ TEN TOTAL- under when high total (48+), line inside 3 61-45 (57%)
STL @ TB TOTAL- over when low total (41 or under), early season 173-137 (56%)
CHI @ SF TOTAL- over when home team a big favorite, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 74-58 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.