Weekly Lines · 2014
Week 3.
16 games and 18 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2014. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 6-12, -11.6u flat at -110. Season through week 3: 13-26, -20.1u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 TB @  ATLThu, Sep 18 20:25 ET | ATL +6.5 | 47 | TB 14 at ATL 56ATL +6.5 closed · ATL covered |
 BAL @  CLESun, Sep 21 13:00 ET | CLE -2 | 43 | BAL 23 at CLE 21CLE -2 closed · push |
 DAL @  STLSun, Sep 21 13:00 ET | STL -1.5 | 45 | DAL 34 at STL 31STL -1.5 closed · DAL covered |
 DEN @  SEASun, Sep 21 16:25 ET | SEA +4 | 48 | DEN 20 at SEA 26SEA +4 closed · SEA covered |
 GB @  DETSun, Sep 21 13:00 ET | DET +1.5 | 51 | GB 7 at DET 19DET +1.5 closed · DET covered |
 HOU @  NYGSun, Sep 21 13:00 ET | NYG +1 | 41.5 | HOU 17 at NYG 30NYG +1 closed · NYG covered |
 IND @  JAXSun, Sep 21 13:00 ET | JAX -6 | 45.5 | IND 44 at JAX 17JAX -6 closed · IND covered |
 KC @  MIASun, Sep 21 16:25 ET | MIA +6 | 43 | KC 34 at MIA 15MIA +6 closed · KC covered |
 MIN @  NOSun, Sep 21 13:00 ET | NO +10 | 49.5 | MIN 9 at NO 20NO +10 closed · NO covered |
 OAK @  NESun, Sep 21 13:00 ET | NE +14 | 47.5 | OAK 9 at NE 16NE +14 closed · OAK covered |
 PIT @  CARSun, Sep 21 20:30 ET | CAR +3 | 42.5 | PIT 37 at CAR 19CAR +3 closed · PIT covered |
 SD @  BUFSun, Sep 21 13:00 ET | BUF +2.5 | 45.5 | SD 22 at BUF 10BUF +2.5 closed · SD covered |
 SF @  ARISun, Sep 21 16:05 ET | ARI -3 | 41 | SF 14 at ARI 23ARI -3 closed · ARI covered |
 TEN @  CINSun, Sep 21 13:00 ET | CIN +6.5 | 44.5 | TEN 7 at CIN 33CIN +6.5 closed · CIN covered |
 WAS @  PHISun, Sep 21 13:00 ET | PHI +4 | 50.5 | WAS 34 at PHI 37PHI +4 closed · WAS covered |
 CHI @  NYJMon, Sep 22 20:30 ET | NYJ +1.5 | 44.5 | CHI 27 at NYJ 19NYJ +1.5 closed · CHI covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
TB @ ATL LOSS ATL -6.5 2.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, got blown out last week, division game, in a dome 16-8 (67%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, got blown out last week, in a dome, on turf 27-14 (66%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, at home, got blown out last week, in a dome 21-11 (66%)
- and 8 more angles on this side
LAC @ BUF WIN BUF -2.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, blew someone out last week, better record, worse QB 38-21 (64%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, blew someone out last week, better record, worse QB 35-21 (62%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, favorite, blew someone out last week, bad QB 13-8 (62%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
TEN @ CIN LOSS CIN -6.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, blew someone out last week, better QB, on turf 24-13 (65%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, better QB, better coach, on turf 57-32 (64%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, blew someone out last week, elite QB, on turf 21-12 (64%)
- and 15 more angles on this side
DAL @ 
LAR LOSS DAL -1.5 2.0u
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, in a dome 35-17 (67%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, blew someone out last week, in a dome 37-18 (67%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, favorite, blew someone out last week, in a dome 42-22 (66%)
- and 24 more angles on this side
HOU @ NYG LOSS HOU +1 1.0u
- model likes them by 3.0+, blew someone out last week, better record, elite QB 17-10 (63%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, elite QB 27-16 (63%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, better QB, elite QB 97-64 (60%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
LV @ NE WIN NE -14 1.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, blew someone out last week, on turf 38-22 (63%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, better coach, on turf 91-56 (62%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, better coach 126-78 (62%)
- and 8 more angles on this side
CHI @ NYJ LOSS NYJ -1.5 1.0u
- model likes them by 1.0+, favorite, worse QB, on turf 27-15 (64%)
WAS @ PHI LOSS PHI -4 3.0u
- model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, better coach, high total (48+) 16-4 (80%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, less rest than the opponent, better record, elite QB 22-9 (71%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, high total (48+) 19-8 (70%)
- and 37 more angles on this side
WAS @ PHI TOTALWIN Over 50.5 1.0u
- over when early season, home team off Monday night 40-19 (68%)
- over when high total (48+), home team off Monday night 22-11 (67%)
- over when home team off Monday night 111-76 (59%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
BAL @ CLE TOTALLOSS Under 43.0 1.0u
- under when windy, division game 57-40 (59%)
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 73-56 (57%)
- under when windy, line inside 3 48-37 (56%)
SD @ BUF TOTALWIN Under 45.5 1.0u
- under when windy, line inside 3 48-37 (56%)
SF @ ARI TOTALLOSS Over 41.0 1.0u
- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 73-45 (62%)
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 173-137 (56%)
DEN @ SEA TOTALLOSS Over 48.0 1.0u
- over when on turf, high total (48+) 92-74 (55%)
MIN @ NO TOTALLOSS Over 49.5 1.0u
- over when on turf, high total (48+) 92-74 (55%)
CHI @ NYJ TOTALWIN Over 44.5 1.0u
- over when on turf, a team looking ahead to a division game 273-219 (56%)
TEN @ CIN TOTALLOSS Over 44.5 1.0u
- over when on turf, a team looking ahead to a division game 273-219 (56%)
HOU @ NYG TOTALWIN Over 41.5 1.0u
- over when on turf, a team looking ahead to a division game 273-219 (56%)
OAK @ NE TOTALLOSS Over 47.5 1.0u
- over when home team a big favorite, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 74-58 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.