Weekly Lines · 2015
Week 1.
16 games and 13 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2015. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 7-6, +2.4u flat at -110. Season through week 1: 7-6, +2.4u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 PIT @  NEThu, Sep 10 20:30 ET | NE +7.5 | 51 | PIT 21 at NE 28NE +7.5 closed · PIT covered |
 BAL @  DENSun, Sep 13 16:25 ET | DEN +4.5 | 46.5 | BAL 13 at DEN 19DEN +4.5 closed · DEN covered |
 CAR @  JAXSun, Sep 13 13:00 ET | JAX -3 | 41 | CAR 20 at JAX 9JAX -3 closed · CAR covered |
 CIN @  OAKSun, Sep 13 16:25 ET | OAK -3 | 43 | CIN 33 at OAK 13OAK -3 closed · CIN covered |
 CLE @  NYJSun, Sep 13 13:00 ET | NYJ +3.5 | 39 | CLE 10 at NYJ 31NYJ +3.5 closed · NYJ covered |
 DET @  SDSun, Sep 13 16:05 ET | SD +3.5 | 45.5 | DET 28 at SD 33SD +3.5 closed · SD covered |
 GB @  CHISun, Sep 13 13:00 ET | CHI -5.5 | 48.5 | GB 31 at CHI 23CHI -5.5 closed · GB covered |
 IND @  BUFSun, Sep 13 13:00 ET | BUF -1 | 44.5 | IND 14 at BUF 27BUF -1 closed · BUF covered |
 KC @  HOUSun, Sep 13 13:00 ET | HOU -1 | 41 | KC 27 at HOU 20HOU -1 closed · KC covered |
 MIA @  WASSun, Sep 13 13:00 ET | WAS -4 | 45.5 | MIA 17 at WAS 10WAS -4 closed · MIA covered |
 NO @  ARISun, Sep 13 16:05 ET | ARI +2 | 48.5 | NO 19 at ARI 31ARI +2 closed · ARI covered |
 NYG @  DALSun, Sep 13 20:30 ET | DAL +7 | 52 | NYG 26 at DAL 27DAL +7 closed · NYG covered |
 SEA @  STLSun, Sep 13 13:00 ET | STL -3.5 | 41.5 | SEA 31 at STL 34STL -3.5 closed · STL covered |
 TEN @  TBSun, Sep 13 16:25 ET | TB +3 | 40.5 | TEN 42 at TB 14TB +3 closed · TEN covered |
 MIN @  SFMon, Sep 14 22:20 ET | SF -2.5 | 42.5 | MIN 3 at SF 20SF -2.5 closed · SF covered |
 PHI @  ATLMon, Sep 14 19:10 ET | ATL -3.5 | 55 | PHI 24 at ATL 26ATL -3.5 closed · ATL covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
CAR @ JAC LOSS CAR -3 1.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, better coach, low total (41 or under) 102-60 (63%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, better coach, low total (41 or under) 88-54 (62%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, better coach, low total (41 or under) 114-72 (61%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
IND @ BUF WIN IND -1 1.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, better coach, on turf 116-73 (61%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, better coach, on turf 103-65 (61%)
KC @ HOU LOSS KC -1 1.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, better coach, in a dome, low total (41 or under) 32-18 (64%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, better coach, in a dome, low total (41 or under) 25-15 (62%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, favorite, better coach, in a dome 99-62 (62%)
- and 6 more angles on this side
PIT @ NE WIN NE -7.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), elite QB, on turf 40-22 (64%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, worse QB, better coach 45-25 (64%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, favorite, worse QB, elite QB 16-9 (64%)
- and 11 more angles on this side
PHI @ ATL WIN PHI -3.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, better coach, on turf 86-51 (63%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, worse QB, better coach, in a dome 45-28 (62%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, favorite, better coach, in a dome 99-62 (62%)
- and 13 more angles on this side
SEA @ 
LAR WIN SEA -3.5 3.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, elite QB, division game, in a dome 35-15 (70%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, elite QB, division game, in a dome 29-13 (69%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, better coach, division game, in a dome 59-33 (64%)
- and 6 more angles on this side
KC @ HOU TOTALWIN Over 41.0 1.0u
- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 75-47 (62%)
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 175-141 (55%)
CLE @ NYJ TOTALWIN Over 39.0 1.0u
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 153-118 (56%)
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 175-141 (55%)
NYG @ DAL TOTALLOSS Under 52.0 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), division game 84-59 (59%)
GB @ CHI TOTALLOSS Under 48.5 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), division game 84-59 (59%)
NO @ ARI TOTALLOSS Under 48.5 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), line inside 3 78-57 (58%)
TEN @ TB TOTALWIN Over 40.5 1.0u
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 175-141 (55%)
CAR @ JAX TOTALLOSS Over 41.0 1.0u
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 175-141 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.