Weekly Lines · 2015
Week 12.
16 games and 9 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2015. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 5-4, +0.6u flat at -110. Season through week 12: 64-64, -1.0u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 CAR @  DALThu, Nov 26 16:30 ET | DAL -1 | 44.5 | CAR 33 at DAL 14DAL -1 closed · CAR covered |
 CHI @  GBThu, Nov 26 20:30 ET | GB +7.5 | 45 | CHI 17 at GB 13GB +7.5 closed · CHI covered |
 PHI @  DETThu, Nov 26 12:30 ET | DET +3 | 46.5 | PHI 14 at DET 45DET +3 closed · DET covered |
 ARI @  SFSun, Nov 29 16:05 ET | SF -7.5 | 45 | ARI 19 at SF 13SF -7.5 closed · SF covered |
 BUF @  KCSun, Nov 29 13:00 ET | KC +4.5 | 41 | BUF 22 at KC 30KC +4.5 closed · KC covered |
 MIA @  NYJSun, Nov 29 13:00 ET | NYJ +4.5 | 44 | MIA 20 at NYJ 38NYJ +4.5 closed · NYJ covered |
 MIN @  ATLSun, Nov 29 13:00 ET | ATL +2 | 45 | MIN 20 at ATL 10ATL +2 closed · MIN covered |
 NE @  DENSun, Nov 29 20:30 ET | DEN -2.5 | 43 | NE 24 at DEN 30DEN -2.5 closed · DEN covered |
 NO @  HOUSun, Nov 29 13:00 ET | HOU +3.5 | 50.5 | NO 6 at HOU 24HOU +3.5 closed · HOU covered |
 NYG @  WASSun, Nov 29 13:00 ET | WAS -1 | 47.5 | NYG 14 at WAS 20WAS -1 closed · WAS covered |
 OAK @  TENSun, Nov 29 13:00 ET | TEN -1 | 45 | OAK 24 at TEN 21TEN -1 closed · OAK covered |
 PIT @  SEASun, Nov 29 16:25 ET | SEA +3 | 46.5 | PIT 30 at SEA 39SEA +3 closed · SEA covered |
 SD @  JAXSun, Nov 29 13:00 ET | JAX +5 | 47 | SD 31 at JAX 25JAX +5 closed · SD covered |
 STL @  CINSun, Nov 29 13:00 ET | CIN +10.5 | 42 | STL 7 at CIN 31CIN +10.5 closed · CIN covered |
 TB @  INDSun, Nov 29 13:00 ET | IND +3 | 46.5 | TB 12 at IND 25IND +3 closed · IND covered |
 BAL @  CLEMon, Nov 30 20:30 ET | CLE +6 | 41 | BAL 33 at CLE 27CLE +6 closed · BAL covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
BUF @ KC - model likes them by 3.0+, on the road, lost last week, low total (41 or under) 59-39 (60%)
LAR @ CIN - model fades them by 1.0+, big favorite (7+), lost last week, better coach 67-44 (60%)
LV @ TEN - model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, better record, better coach 41-24 (63%)
NYG @ WAS TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, division game 81-62 (57%)
NE @ DEN TOTAL- over when a new starting QB, road team off Monday night 32-9 (78%)
- over when under 40 degrees, line inside 3 55-37 (60%)
- over when under 40 degrees, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 21-15 (58%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
PIT @ SEA TOTAL- over when under 40 degrees, line inside 3 55-37 (60%)
- over when under 40 degrees, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 21-15 (58%)
TB @ IND TOTAL- over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 131-99 (57%)
CAR @ DAL TOTAL- over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 131-99 (57%)
PHI @ DET TOTAL- over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 131-99 (57%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.