Weekly Lines · 2015
Week 13.
16 games and 15 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2015. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 6-9, -3.0u flat at -110. Season through week 13: 70-73, -4.0u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 GB @  DETThu, Dec 3 20:25 ET | DET -2.5 | 46 | GB 27 at DET 23DET -2.5 closed · GB covered |
 ARI @  STLSun, Dec 6 13:00 ET | STL -3.5 | 43 | ARI 27 at STL 3STL -3.5 closed · ARI covered |
 ATL @  TBSun, Dec 6 13:00 ET | TB +1 | 46.5 | ATL 19 at TB 23TB +1 closed · TB covered |
 BAL @  MIASun, Dec 6 13:00 ET | MIA +3.5 | 43 | BAL 13 at MIA 15MIA +3.5 closed · BAL covered |
 CAR @  NOSun, Dec 6 16:25 ET | NO -5.5 | 50.5 | CAR 41 at NO 38NO -5.5 closed · NO covered |
 CIN @  CLESun, Dec 6 13:00 ET | CLE -7.5 | 44 | CIN 37 at CLE 3CLE -7.5 closed · CIN covered |
 DEN @  SDSun, Dec 6 16:05 ET | SD -6 | 45 | DEN 17 at SD 3SD -6 closed · DEN covered |
 HOU @  BUFSun, Dec 6 13:00 ET | BUF +3 | 42 | HOU 21 at BUF 30BUF +3 closed · BUF covered |
 IND @  PITSun, Dec 6 20:30 ET | PIT +10 | 50.5 | IND 10 at PIT 45PIT +10 closed · PIT covered |
 JAX @  TENSun, Dec 6 13:00 ET | TEN +3 | 43.5 | JAX 39 at TEN 42TEN +3 closed · push |
 KC @  OAKSun, Dec 6 16:05 ET | OAK -3 | 45.5 | KC 34 at OAK 20OAK -3 closed · KC covered |
 NYJ @  NYGSun, Dec 6 13:00 ET | NYG -2 | 45.5 | NYJ 23 at NYG 20NYG -2 closed · NYJ covered |
 PHI @  NESun, Dec 6 16:25 ET | NE +9.5 | 49.5 | PHI 35 at NE 28NE +9.5 closed · PHI covered |
 SEA @  MINSun, Dec 6 13:00 ET | MIN -2.5 | 43 | SEA 38 at MIN 7MIN -2.5 closed · SEA covered |
 SF @  CHISun, Dec 6 13:00 ET | CHI +6 | 43 | SF 26 at CHI 20CHI +6 closed · SF covered |
 DAL @  WASMon, Dec 7 20:30 ET | WAS +2 | 43 | DAL 19 at WAS 16WAS +2 closed · DAL covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
ATL @ TB LOSS ATL +1 1.0u
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, better QB, division game 92-55 (63%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, elite QB, division game 49-32 (60%)
DEN @ 
LAC LOSS DEN -6 1.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, won last week, better record, worse QB 55-31 (64%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, better record, worse QB, division game 44-25 (64%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, won last week, better record, worse QB 76-44 (63%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
GB @ DET WIN GB -2.5 3.0u
- model likes them by 2.0+, lost last week, better record, in a dome 21-7 (75%)
- model likes them by 2.0+, lost last week, better coach, in a dome 36-18 (67%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, lost last week, better coach, in a dome 53-27 (66%)
- and 18 more angles on this side
NYJ @ NYG LOSS NYJ -2 2.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, blew someone out last week, better record, worse QB 45-24 (65%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, better coach, on turf 116-73 (61%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, favorite, blew someone out last week, worse QB 54-36 (60%)
SEA @ MIN LOSS SEA -2.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, better coach, on turf 116-73 (61%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, better coach, on turf 103-65 (61%)
ATL @ TB TOTALWIN Under 46.5 1.0u
- under when windy, division game 60-43 (58%)
- under when windy, line inside 3 53-42 (56%)
- under when division game, late season 209-167 (56%)
IND @ PIT TOTALWIN Over 50.5 1.0u
- over when under 40 degrees, home team a big favorite 39-30 (56%)
SEA @ MIN TOTALWIN Over 43.0 1.0u
- over when under 40 degrees, line inside 3 55-37 (60%)
CAR @ NO TOTALLOSS Under 50.5 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), division game 84-59 (59%)
- under when division game, late season 209-167 (56%)
KC @ OAK TOTALLOSS Under 45.5 1.0u
- under when division game, late season 209-167 (56%)
DEN @ SD TOTALWIN Under 45.0 1.0u
- under when division game, late season 209-167 (56%)
ARI @ STL TOTALWIN Under 43.0 1.0u
- under when division game, late season 209-167 (56%)
JAX @ TEN TOTALLOSS Under 43.5 1.0u
- under when division game, late season 209-167 (56%)
GB @ DET TOTALLOSS Under 46.0 1.0u
- under when division game, late season 209-167 (56%)
BAL @ MIA TOTALLOSS Over 43.0 1.0u
- over when a new starting QB, road team off Monday night 32-9 (78%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.