Weekly Lines · 2015
Week 14.
16 games and 10 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2015. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 5-5, -0.5u flat at -110. Season through week 14: 75-78, -4.5u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 MIN @  ARIThu, Dec 10 20:25 ET | ARI +10 | 46.5 | MIN 20 at ARI 23ARI +10 closed · MIN covered |
 ATL @  CARSun, Dec 13 13:00 ET | CAR +8.5 | 45.5 | ATL 0 at CAR 38CAR +8.5 closed · CAR covered |
 BUF @  PHISun, Dec 13 13:00 ET | PHI +1 | 48 | BUF 20 at PHI 23PHI +1 closed · PHI covered |
 DAL @  GBSun, Dec 13 16:25 ET | GB +6 | 43 | DAL 7 at GB 28GB +6 closed · GB covered |
 DET @  STLSun, Dec 13 13:00 ET | STL -3 | 41.5 | DET 14 at STL 21STL -3 closed · STL covered |
 IND @  JAXSun, Dec 13 13:00 ET | JAX +1 | 45.5 | IND 16 at JAX 51JAX +1 closed · JAX covered |
 NE @  HOUSun, Dec 13 20:30 ET | HOU -4 | 46 | NE 27 at HOU 6HOU -4 closed · NE covered |
 NO @  TBSun, Dec 13 13:00 ET | TB +6 | 52 | NO 24 at TB 17TB +6 closed · NO covered |
 OAK @  DENSun, Dec 13 16:05 ET | DEN +6 | 43 | OAK 15 at DEN 12DEN +6 closed · OAK covered |
 PIT @  CINSun, Dec 13 13:00 ET | CIN +1 | 49 | PIT 33 at CIN 20CIN +1 closed · PIT covered |
 SD @  KCSun, Dec 13 13:00 ET | KC +11.5 | 42 | SD 3 at KC 10KC +11.5 closed · SD covered |
 SEA @  BALSun, Dec 13 13:00 ET | BAL -10.5 | 42 | SEA 35 at BAL 6BAL -10.5 closed · SEA covered |
 SF @  CLESun, Dec 13 13:00 ET | CLE +2.5 | 43 | SF 10 at CLE 24CLE +2.5 closed · CLE covered |
 TEN @  NYJSun, Dec 13 13:00 ET | NYJ +8 | 43 | TEN 8 at NYJ 30NYJ +8 closed · NYJ covered |
 WAS @  CHISun, Dec 13 13:00 ET | CHI +4 | 42.5 | WAS 24 at CHI 21CHI +4 closed · WAS covered |
 NYG @  MIAMon, Dec 14 20:30 ET | MIA -2.5 | 47.5 | NYG 31 at MIA 24MIA -2.5 closed · NYG covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
IND @ JAC - model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, better QB, division game 92-55 (63%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, got blown out last week, division game 43-26 (62%)
- model likes them by 2.0+, on the road, lost last week, better QB 72-46 (61%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
BUF @ PHI - model fades them by 3.0+, at home, better coach 135-87 (61%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, won last week, worse record, better coach 31-20 (61%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, at home, better coach 128-83 (61%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
TEN @ NYJ - model fades them by 0.5+, big underdog (7+), on the road, won last week 26-17 (60%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, big underdog (7+), won last week 29-19 (60%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, big underdog (7+), won last week 29-19 (60%)
SD @ KC TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, division game 81-62 (57%)
- under when division game, late season 209-167 (56%)
PIT @ CIN TOTAL- under when high total (48+), division game 84-59 (59%)
- under when high total (48+), line inside 3 78-57 (58%)
- under when division game, late season 209-167 (56%)
BUF @ PHI TOTAL- under when high total (48+), line inside 3 78-57 (58%)
OAK @ DEN TOTAL- under when division game, late season 209-167 (56%)
ATL @ CAR TOTAL- under when division game, late season 209-167 (56%)
SF @ CLE TOTAL- over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 131-99 (57%)
DET @ STL TOTAL- over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 131-99 (57%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.