Weekly Lines · 2015
Week 2.
16 games and 8 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2015. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 3-5, -3.6u flat at -110. Season through week 2: 10-11, -1.2u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 DEN @  KCThu, Sep 17 20:25 ET | KC +3 | 42 | DEN 31 at KC 24KC +3 closed · DEN covered |
 ARI @  CHISun, Sep 20 13:00 ET | CHI -2 | 45.5 | ARI 48 at CHI 23CHI -2 closed · ARI covered |
 ATL @  NYGSun, Sep 20 13:00 ET | NYG +2 | 49.5 | ATL 24 at NYG 20NYG +2 closed · ATL covered |
 BAL @  OAKSun, Sep 20 16:05 ET | OAK -6 | 42 | BAL 33 at OAK 37OAK -6 closed · OAK covered |
 DAL @  PHISun, Sep 20 16:25 ET | PHI +7 | 53 | DAL 20 at PHI 10PHI +7 closed · DAL covered |
 DET @  MINSun, Sep 20 13:00 ET | MIN +2.5 | 44 | DET 16 at MIN 26MIN +2.5 closed · MIN covered |
 HOU @  CARSun, Sep 20 13:00 ET | CAR +3 | 41 | HOU 17 at CAR 24CAR +3 closed · CAR covered |
 MIA @  JAXSun, Sep 20 16:05 ET | JAX -5 | 42.5 | MIA 20 at JAX 23JAX -5 closed · JAX covered |
 NE @  BUFSun, Sep 20 13:00 ET | BUF +2 | 45 | NE 40 at BUF 32BUF +2 closed · NE covered |
 SD @  CINSun, Sep 20 13:00 ET | CIN +3.5 | 47.5 | SD 19 at CIN 24CIN +3.5 closed · CIN covered |
 SEA @  GBSun, Sep 20 20:30 ET | GB +3.5 | 49 | SEA 17 at GB 27GB +3.5 closed · GB covered |
 SF @  PITSun, Sep 20 13:00 ET | PIT +6 | 46 | SF 18 at PIT 43PIT +6 closed · PIT covered |
 STL @  WASSun, Sep 20 13:00 ET | WAS -3 | 41 | STL 10 at WAS 24WAS -3 closed · WAS covered |
 TB @  NOSun, Sep 20 13:00 ET | NO +9.5 | 47 | TB 26 at NO 19NO +9.5 closed · TB covered |
 TEN @  CLESun, Sep 20 13:00 ET | CLE +1 | 41 | TEN 14 at CLE 28CLE +1 closed · CLE covered |
 NYJ @  INDMon, Sep 21 20:30 ET | IND +6 | 45.5 | NYJ 20 at IND 7IND +6 closed · NYJ covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
TEN @ CLE - model fades them by 1.0+, at home, got blown out last week, better coach 37-21 (64%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, got blown out last week, better coach, low total (41 or under) 28-17 (62%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, better coach 70-43 (62%)
- and 8 more angles on this side
HOU @ CAR - model likes them by 2.0+, on the road, lost last week, better QB 72-46 (61%)
LAR @ WAS - model fades them by 3.0+, better coach, low total (41 or under) 102-60 (63%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, better coach, low total (41 or under) 88-54 (62%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, better coach, low total (41 or under) 114-72 (61%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
SF @ PIT - model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week 19-10 (66%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week 17-10 (63%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, won last week 47-31 (60%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
DET @ MIN TOTAL- over when early season, home team off Monday night 45-21 (68%)
- over when line inside 3, home team off Monday night 53-30 (64%)
- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 55-37 (60%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
ATL @ NYG TOTAL- under when high total (48+), line inside 3 78-57 (58%)
TEN @ CLE TOTAL- over when low total (41 or under), early season 175-141 (55%)
STL @ WAS TOTAL- over when low total (41 or under), early season 175-141 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.