Weekly Lines · 2015
Week 16.
16 games and 10 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2015. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 6-4, +1.5u flat at -110. Season through week 16: 88-88, -1.6u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 SD @  OAKThu, Dec 24 20:25 ET | OAK +4 | 45 | SD 20 at OAK 23OAK +4 closed · SD covered |
 WAS @  PHISat, Dec 26 20:25 ET | PHI +3.5 | 48 | WAS 38 at PHI 24PHI +3.5 closed · WAS covered |
 CAR @  ATLSun, Dec 27 13:00 ET | ATL -7 | 45.5 | CAR 13 at ATL 20ATL -7 closed · ATL covered |
 CHI @  TBSun, Dec 27 13:00 ET | TB +3 | 44 | CHI 26 at TB 21TB +3 closed · CHI covered |
 CLE @  KCSun, Dec 27 13:00 ET | KC +11.5 | 42.5 | CLE 13 at KC 17KC +11.5 closed · CLE covered |
 DAL @  BUFSun, Dec 27 13:00 ET | BUF +6.5 | 42 | DAL 6 at BUF 16BUF +6.5 closed · BUF covered |
 GB @  ARISun, Dec 27 16:25 ET | ARI +6 | 50 | GB 8 at ARI 38ARI +6 closed · ARI covered |
 HOU @  TENSun, Dec 27 13:00 ET | TEN -3.5 | 39 | HOU 34 at TEN 6TEN -3.5 closed · HOU covered |
 IND @  MIASun, Dec 27 13:00 ET | MIA +2.5 | 44 | IND 18 at MIA 12MIA +2.5 closed · IND covered |
 JAX @  NOSun, Dec 27 16:05 ET | NO +2.5 | 52.5 | JAX 27 at NO 38NO +2.5 closed · NO covered |
 NE @  NYJSun, Dec 27 13:00 ET | NYJ -2.5 | 45.5 | NE 20 at NYJ 26NYJ -2.5 closed · NYJ covered |
 NYG @  MINSun, Dec 27 20:30 ET | MIN +7 | 44.5 | NYG 17 at MIN 49MIN +7 closed · MIN covered |
 PIT @  BALSun, Dec 27 13:00 ET | BAL -11 | 47.5 | PIT 17 at BAL 20BAL -11 closed · BAL covered |
 SF @  DETSun, Dec 27 13:00 ET | DET +8.5 | 42.5 | SF 17 at DET 32DET +8.5 closed · DET covered |
 STL @  SEASun, Dec 27 16:25 ET | SEA +11 | 42 | STL 23 at SEA 17SEA +11 closed · STL covered |
 CIN @  DENMon, Dec 28 20:30 ET | DEN +3.5 | 39 | CIN 17 at DEN 20DEN +3.5 closed · CIN covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
CHI @ TB - model fades them by 1.0+, less rest than the opponent, got blown out last week, worse record 15-8 (65%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, less rest than the opponent, got blown out last week 15-8 (65%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, got blown out last week, better coach 23-13 (64%)
- and 22 more angles on this side
WAS @ PHI - model fades them by 3.0+, at home, better coach, division game 57-28 (67%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, got blown out last week, better coach 18-9 (67%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, at home, got blown out last week, better coach 37-21 (64%)
- and 23 more angles on this side
SF @ DET TOTAL- over when home team off Monday night, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 30-13 (70%)
- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 55-37 (60%)
- over when home team off Monday night 122-85 (59%)
- and 5 more angles on this side
WAS @ PHI TOTAL- under when high total (48+), division game 84-59 (59%)
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 81-62 (57%)
- under when division game, late season 209-167 (56%)
SD @ OAK TOTAL- under when windy, division game 60-43 (58%)
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 81-62 (57%)
- under when division game, late season 209-167 (56%)
HOU @ TEN TOTAL- under when windy, division game 60-43 (58%)
- under when division game, late season 209-167 (56%)
NYG @ MIN TOTAL- over when under 40 degrees, home team a big favorite 39-30 (56%)
CAR @ ATL TOTAL- under when division game, late season 209-167 (56%)
PIT @ BAL TOTAL- under when division game, late season 209-167 (56%)
NE @ NYJ TOTAL- under when division game, late season 209-167 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.