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Weekly Lines · 2015

Week 3.

16 games and 15 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2015. Every number is open.

This week's plays: 6-9, +0.1u flat at -110. Season through week 3: 16-20, -1.1u flat at -110.

GameMarketTotalFinal
WAS @ NYGThu, Sep 24 20:25 ETNYG +345WAS 21 at NYG 32NYG +3 closed · NYG covered
ATL @ DALSun, Sep 27 13:00 ETDAL +143.5ATL 39 at DAL 28DAL +1 closed · ATL covered
BUF @ MIASun, Sep 27 16:25 ETMIA +143.5BUF 41 at MIA 14MIA +1 closed · BUF covered
CHI @ SEASun, Sep 27 16:25 ETSEA +16.543.5CHI 0 at SEA 26SEA +16.5 closed · SEA covered
CIN @ BALSun, Sep 27 13:00 ETBAL +2.545.5CIN 28 at BAL 24BAL +2.5 closed · CIN covered
DEN @ DETSun, Sep 27 20:30 ETDET -345DEN 24 at DET 12DET -3 closed · DEN covered
IND @ TENSun, Sep 27 13:00 ETTEN -346.5IND 35 at TEN 33TEN -3 closed · TEN covered
JAX @ NESun, Sep 27 13:00 ETNE +14.548.5JAX 17 at NE 51NE +14.5 closed · NE covered
NO @ CARSun, Sep 27 13:00 ETCAR +1043NO 22 at CAR 27CAR +10 closed · NO covered
OAK @ CLESun, Sep 27 13:00 ETCLE +3.543.5OAK 27 at CLE 20CLE +3.5 closed · OAK covered
PHI @ NYJSun, Sep 27 13:00 ETNYJ +347PHI 24 at NYJ 17NYJ +3 closed · PHI covered
PIT @ STLSun, Sep 27 13:00 ETSTL +1.548.5PIT 12 at STL 6STL +1.5 closed · PIT covered
SD @ MINSun, Sep 27 13:00 ETMIN +2.545.5SD 14 at MIN 31MIN +2.5 closed · MIN covered
SF @ ARISun, Sep 27 16:05 ETARI +745SF 7 at ARI 47ARI +7 closed · ARI covered
TB @ HOUSun, Sep 27 13:00 ETHOU +641TB 9 at HOU 19HOU +6 closed · HOU covered
KC @ GBMon, Sep 28 20:30 ETGB +4.547KC 28 at GB 38GB +4.5 closed · GB covered
The market line as posted, and how each game finished.

The plays

A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.

The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each

KC @ GB
WIN GB -4.5 3.0u
  • model likes them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, better record, elite QB 17-7 (71%)
  • model likes them by 1.0+, less rest than the opponent, better record, elite QB 25-12 (68%)
  • model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, better record, elite QB 27-14 (66%)
  • and 8 more angles on this side
LAC @ MIN
LOSS LAC +2.5 1.0u
  • model likes them by 2.0+, lost last week, elite QB, on turf 32-19 (63%)
  • model likes them by 1.0+, lost last week, elite QB, on turf 45-28 (62%)
  • model likes them by 2.0+, on the road, lost last week, better QB 72-46 (61%)
WAS @ NYG
WIN NYG -3 1.0u
  • model likes them by 2.0+, favorite, worse record, better QB 18-10 (64%)
  • model likes them by 0.5+, favorite, worse record, better QB 33-21 (61%)
PHI @ NYJ
LOSS PHI +3 1.0u
  • model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, better coach, on turf 86-51 (63%)
  • model fades them by 3.0+, lost last week, better coach, on turf 43-26 (62%)
  • model fades them by 3.0+, underdog, worse record, better coach 31-19 (62%)
  • and 3 more angles on this side
CHI @ SEA
LOSS SEA -16.5 1.0u
  • model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), elite QB, on turf 40-22 (64%)
  • model fades them by 2.0+, big favorite (7+), elite QB, on turf 54-34 (61%)
SF @ ARI
WIN SF +7 3.0u
  • model fades them by 3.0+, got blown out last week, worse record, in a dome 16-4 (80%)
  • model fades them by 2.0+, got blown out last week, worse record, in a dome 22-10 (69%)
  • model fades them by 3.0+, lost last week, worse record, in a dome 28-13 (68%)
  • and 21 more angles on this side
IND @ TEN
WIN TEN +3 1.0u
  • model likes them by 0.5+, more rest than the opponent, got blown out last week, division game 18-12 (60%)
PHI @ NYJ TOTAL
LOSS Over 47.0 1.0u
  • over when early season, home team off Monday night 45-21 (68%)
  • over when line inside 3, home team off Monday night 53-30 (64%)
  • over when on turf, home team off Monday night 55-37 (60%)
  • and 2 more angles on this side
BUF @ MIA TOTAL
LOSS Under 43.5 1.0u
  • under when rain in the forecast, division game 81-62 (57%)
NO @ CAR TOTAL
LOSS Under 43.0 1.0u
  • under when rain in the forecast, division game 81-62 (57%)
IND @ TEN TOTAL
LOSS Under 46.5 1.0u
  • under when rain in the forecast, division game 81-62 (57%)
OAK @ CLE TOTAL
WIN Over 43.5 1.0u
  • over when windy, early season 30-24 (56%)
TB @ HOU TOTAL
LOSS Over 41.0 1.0u
  • over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 75-47 (62%)
  • over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 153-118 (56%)
  • over when low total (41 or under), early season 175-141 (55%)
PIT @ STL TOTAL
WIN Under 48.5 1.0u
  • under when high total (48+), line inside 3 78-57 (58%)
CHI @ SEA TOTAL
LOSS Over 43.5 1.0u
  • over when home team a big favorite, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 80-63 (56%)

Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.

← Week 2 The 2015 record Week 4 →

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