Weekly Lines · 2015
Week 5.
14 games and 11 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2015. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 6-5, -0.6u flat at -110. Season through week 5: 27-29, +1.9u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 IND @  HOUThu, Oct 8 20:25 ET | HOU +4.5 | 40.5 | IND 27 at HOU 20HOU +4.5 closed · IND covered |
 ARI @  DETSun, Oct 11 16:05 ET | DET -4.5 | 46 | ARI 42 at DET 17DET -4.5 closed · ARI covered |
 BUF @  TENSun, Oct 11 13:00 ET | TEN +1 | 43 | BUF 14 at TEN 13TEN +1 closed · BUF covered |
 CHI @  KCSun, Oct 11 13:00 ET | KC +10 | 44 | CHI 18 at KC 17KC +10 closed · CHI covered |
 CLE @  BALSun, Oct 11 13:00 ET | BAL +6 | 43 | CLE 33 at BAL 30BAL +6 closed · CLE covered |
 DEN @  OAKSun, Oct 11 16:25 ET | OAK -5 | 44.5 | DEN 16 at OAK 10OAK -5 closed · DEN covered |
 JAX @  TBSun, Oct 11 13:00 ET | TB +1 | 41 | JAX 31 at TB 38TB +1 closed · TB covered |
 NE @  DALSun, Oct 11 16:25 ET | DAL -8 | 51 | NE 30 at DAL 6DAL -8 closed · NE covered |
 NO @  PHISun, Oct 11 13:00 ET | PHI +6.5 | 49.5 | NO 17 at PHI 39PHI +6.5 closed · PHI covered |
 SEA @  CINSun, Oct 11 13:00 ET | CIN +3 | 44.5 | SEA 24 at CIN 27CIN +3 closed · push |
 SF @  NYGSun, Oct 11 20:30 ET | NYG +7.5 | 43.5 | SF 27 at NYG 30NYG +7.5 closed · SF covered |
 STL @  GBSun, Oct 11 13:00 ET | GB +8.5 | 45 | STL 10 at GB 24GB +8.5 closed · GB covered |
 WAS @  ATLSun, Oct 11 13:00 ET | ATL +7.5 | 48.5 | WAS 19 at ATL 25ATL +7.5 closed · WAS covered |
 PIT @  SDMon, Oct 12 20:30 ET | SD +4 | 45.5 | PIT 24 at SD 20SD +4 closed · PIT covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
ARI @ DET - model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, elite QB, in a dome 44-25 (64%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, elite QB, in a dome 49-29 (63%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, favorite, better coach, in a dome 99-62 (62%)
- and 5 more angles on this side
BUF @ TEN - model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, less rest than the opponent, better record 13-7 (65%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, got blown out last week, better coach 28-16 (64%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, less rest than the opponent, better coach 21-13 (62%)
JAC @ TB - model likes them by 3.0+, on the road, lost last week, low total (41 or under) 59-39 (60%)
PIT @ 
LAC - model fades them by 2.0+, at home, less rest than the opponent, elite QB 19-11 (63%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, elite QB 23-14 (62%)
LAR @ GB - model fades them by 0.5+, big underdog (7+), on the road, won last week 26-17 (60%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, big underdog (7+), won last week 29-19 (60%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, big underdog (7+), won last week 29-19 (60%)
SF @ NYG - model fades them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, better coach, on turf 29-16 (64%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, got blown out last week, better coach 23-13 (64%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, got blown out last week, better coach 28-16 (64%)
- and 10 more angles on this side
ARI @ DET TOTAL- over when home team off Monday night, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 30-13 (70%)
- over when early season, home team off Monday night 45-21 (68%)
- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 55-37 (60%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
IND @ HOU TOTAL- over when a new starting QB, early season 66-38 (64%)
- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 75-47 (62%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 153-118 (56%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
JAX @ TB TOTAL- over when low total (41 or under), early season 175-141 (55%)
SF @ NYG TOTAL- over when home team a big favorite, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 80-63 (56%)
PIT @ SD TOTAL- over when a new starting QB, early season 66-38 (64%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.