Weekly Lines · 2015
Week 4.
15 games and 9 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2015. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 5-4, +3.6u flat at -110. Season through week 4: 21-24, +2.5u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 BAL @  PITThu, Oct 1 20:25 ET | PIT -3 | 44 | BAL 23 at PIT 20PIT -3 closed · push |
 CAR @  TBSun, Oct 4 13:00 ET | TB -3 | 40 | CAR 37 at TB 23TB -3 closed · CAR covered |
 CLE @  SDSun, Oct 4 16:05 ET | SD +4.5 | 44.5 | CLE 27 at SD 30SD +4.5 closed · CLE covered |
 DAL @  NOSun, Oct 4 20:30 ET | NO +3 | 48 | DAL 20 at NO 26NO +3 closed · NO covered |
 GB @  SFSun, Oct 4 16:25 ET | SF -7.5 | 48 | GB 17 at SF 3SF -7.5 closed · GB covered |
 HOU @  ATLSun, Oct 4 13:00 ET | ATL +4 | 47.5 | HOU 21 at ATL 48ATL +4 closed · ATL covered |
 JAX @  INDSun, Oct 4 13:00 ET | IND +4 | 43 | JAX 13 at IND 16IND +4 closed · JAX covered |
 KC @  CINSun, Oct 4 13:00 ET | CIN +3.5 | 45 | KC 21 at CIN 36CIN +3.5 closed · CIN covered |
 MIN @  DENSun, Oct 4 16:25 ET | DEN +7 | 43.5 | MIN 20 at DEN 23DEN +7 closed · MIN covered |
 NYG @  BUFSun, Oct 4 13:00 ET | BUF +6 | 46.5 | NYG 24 at BUF 10BUF +6 closed · NYG covered |
 NYJ @  MIASun, Oct 4 09:30 ET | MIA -2.5 | 42 | NYJ 27 at MIA 14MIA -2.5 closed · NYJ covered |
 OAK @  CHISun, Oct 4 13:00 ET | CHI -3 | 44.5 | OAK 20 at CHI 22CHI -3 closed · CHI covered |
 PHI @  WASSun, Oct 4 13:00 ET | WAS -3 | 46 | PHI 20 at WAS 23WAS -3 closed · WAS covered |
 STL @  ARISun, Oct 4 16:25 ET | ARI +7 | 43.5 | STL 24 at ARI 22ARI +7 closed · STL covered |
 DET @  SEAMon, Oct 5 20:30 ET | SEA +10 | 43 | DET 10 at SEA 13SEA +10 closed · DET covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
NYG @ BUF - model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better record 50-26 (66%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, blew someone out last week, better record, worse QB 45-24 (65%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better record 31-17 (65%)
- and 14 more angles on this side
MIN @ DEN - model fades them by 3.0+, at home, better coach 135-87 (61%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, at home, better coach 128-83 (61%)
JAC @ IND - model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, got blown out last week, bad QB 17-11 (61%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, got blown out last week, bad QB 15-10 (60%)
LV @ CHI - model fades them by 2.0+, won last week, better record, worse QB 76-44 (63%)
PHI @ WAS - model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better coach 43-18 (70%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better coach 27-14 (66%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better coach 52-28 (65%)
- and 5 more angles on this side
CAR @ TB - model fades them by 2.0+, underdog, at home, lost last week 40-26 (61%)
DET @ SEA TOTAL- over when home team a big favorite, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 80-63 (56%)
BAL @ PIT TOTAL- over when a new starting QB, early season 66-38 (64%)
- over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 131-99 (57%)
JAX @ IND TOTAL- over when a new starting QB, early season 66-38 (64%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.