Weekly Lines · 2015
Week 10.
14 games and 9 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2015. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 3-6, -4.7u flat at -110. Season through week 10: 52-52, +0.2u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 BUF @  NYJThu, Nov 12 20:25 ET | NYJ +2.5 | 41.5 | BUF 22 at NYJ 17NYJ +2.5 closed · BUF covered |
 ARI @  SEASun, Nov 15 20:30 ET | SEA +3 | 43.5 | ARI 39 at SEA 32SEA +3 closed · ARI covered |
 CAR @  TENSun, Nov 15 13:00 ET | TEN -3.5 | 42.5 | CAR 27 at TEN 10TEN -3.5 closed · CAR covered |
 CHI @  STLSun, Nov 15 13:00 ET | STL +7.5 | 42 | CHI 37 at STL 13STL +7.5 closed · CHI covered |
 CLE @  PITSun, Nov 15 13:00 ET | PIT +7 | 43.5 | CLE 9 at PIT 30PIT +7 closed · PIT covered |
 DAL @  TBSun, Nov 15 13:00 ET | TB -1 | 43.5 | DAL 6 at TB 10TB -1 closed · TB covered |
 DET @  GBSun, Nov 15 13:00 ET | GB +10.5 | 50 | DET 18 at GB 16GB +10.5 closed · DET covered |
 JAX @  BALSun, Nov 15 13:00 ET | BAL +4 | 47 | JAX 22 at BAL 20BAL +4 closed · JAX covered |
 KC @  DENSun, Nov 15 16:25 ET | DEN +4 | 42 | KC 29 at DEN 13DEN +4 closed · KC covered |
 MIA @  PHISun, Nov 15 13:00 ET | PHI +5.5 | 49 | MIA 20 at PHI 19PHI +5.5 closed · MIA covered |
 MIN @  OAKSun, Nov 15 16:05 ET | OAK +3 | 44 | MIN 30 at OAK 14OAK +3 closed · MIN covered |
 NE @  NYGSun, Nov 15 16:25 ET | NYG -7 | 52.5 | NE 27 at NYG 26NYG -7 closed · NYG covered |
 NO @  WASSun, Nov 15 13:00 ET | WAS -1 | 52 | NO 14 at WAS 47WAS -1 closed · WAS covered |
 HOU @  CINMon, Nov 16 20:30 ET | CIN +10 | 46.5 | HOU 10 at CIN 6CIN +10 closed · HOU covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
BUF @ NYJ - model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, on turf 36-20 (64%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, blew someone out last week, division game, on turf 39-25 (61%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, division game 29-19 (60%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
KC @ DEN - model fades them by 0.5+, more rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, division game 15-7 (68%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, more rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, division game 13-7 (65%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 59-37 (62%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
ARI @ SEA TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, division game 81-62 (57%)
BUF @ NYJ TOTAL- under when windy, division game 60-43 (58%)
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 81-62 (57%)
- under when windy, line inside 3 53-42 (56%)
CHI @ STL TOTAL- over when in a dome, road team off Monday night 15-8 (65%)
DET @ GB TOTAL- under when high total (48+), division game 84-59 (59%)
NE @ NYG TOTAL- under when high total (48+), home team a big underdog 16-11 (59%)
NO @ WAS TOTAL- under when high total (48+), line inside 3 78-57 (58%)
DAL @ TB TOTAL- over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 131-99 (57%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.