Weekly Lines · 2015
Week 15.
16 games and 13 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2015. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 7-6, +1.4u flat at -110. Season through week 15: 82-84, -3.1u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 TB @  STLThu, Dec 17 20:25 ET | STL +1 | 41 | TB 23 at STL 31STL +1 closed · STL covered |
 NYJ @  DALSat, Dec 19 20:25 ET | DAL -3 | 41 | NYJ 19 at DAL 16DAL -3 closed · push |
 ARI @  PHISun, Dec 20 20:30 ET | PHI -3.5 | 50.5 | ARI 40 at PHI 17PHI -3.5 closed · ARI covered |
 ATL @  JAXSun, Dec 20 13:00 ET | JAX +2 | 47.5 | ATL 23 at JAX 17JAX +2 closed · ATL covered |
 BUF @  WASSun, Dec 20 13:00 ET | WAS -2.5 | 46 | BUF 25 at WAS 35WAS -2.5 closed · WAS covered |
 CAR @  NYGSun, Dec 20 13:00 ET | NYG -4.5 | 46.5 | CAR 38 at NYG 35NYG -4.5 closed · NYG covered |
 CHI @  MINSun, Dec 20 13:00 ET | MIN +4 | 43.5 | CHI 17 at MIN 38MIN +4 closed · MIN covered |
 CIN @  SFSun, Dec 20 16:25 ET | SF -7 | 41 | CIN 24 at SF 14SF -7 closed · CIN covered |
 CLE @  SEASun, Dec 20 16:05 ET | SEA +14.5 | 45 | CLE 13 at SEA 30SEA +14.5 closed · SEA covered |
 DEN @  PITSun, Dec 20 16:25 ET | PIT +7.5 | 45.5 | DEN 27 at PIT 34PIT +7.5 closed · DEN covered |
 GB @  OAKSun, Dec 20 16:05 ET | OAK -4 | 47 | GB 30 at OAK 20OAK -4 closed · GB covered |
 HOU @  INDSun, Dec 20 13:00 ET | IND +2.5 | 42 | HOU 16 at IND 10IND +2.5 closed · HOU covered |
 KC @  BALSun, Dec 20 13:00 ET | BAL -6.5 | 41 | KC 34 at BAL 14BAL -6.5 closed · KC covered |
 MIA @  SDSun, Dec 20 16:25 ET | SD +1 | 46.5 | MIA 14 at SD 30SD +1 closed · SD covered |
 TEN @  NESun, Dec 20 13:00 ET | NE +14.5 | 48 | TEN 16 at NE 33NE +14.5 closed · NE covered |
 DET @  NOMon, Dec 21 20:30 ET | NO +2.5 | 52 | DET 35 at NO 27NO +2.5 closed · DET covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
CAR @ NYG WIN CAR -4.5 2.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, blew someone out last week, better record, worse QB 45-24 (65%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, on turf 36-20 (64%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, worse QB, bad QB, better coach 25-14 (64%)
- and 18 more angles on this side
CLE @ SEA WIN CLE +14.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, big underdog (7+), on the road, won last week 26-17 (60%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, big underdog (7+), won last week 29-19 (60%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, big underdog (7+), won last week 29-19 (60%)
CHI @ MIN LOSS MIN -4 1.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, at home, more rest than the opponent, division game 38-22 (63%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, at home, more rest than the opponent, division game 34-20 (63%)
CIN @ SF WIN SF +7 1.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, big underdog (7+), low total (41 or under) 31-19 (62%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, big underdog (7+), low total (41 or under) 31-19 (62%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, big underdog (7+), worse record, low total (41 or under) 30-19 (61%)
CAR @ NYG TOTALWIN Over 46.5 1.0u
- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 55-37 (60%)
- over when home team off Monday night 122-85 (59%)
- over when a team looking ahead to a division game, home team off Monday night 67-51 (57%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
NYJ @ DAL TOTALLOSS Over 41.0 1.0u
- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 75-47 (62%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 153-118 (56%)
TB @ STL TOTALWIN Over 41.0 1.0u
- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 75-47 (62%)
- over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 131-99 (57%)
KC @ BAL TOTALWIN Over 41.0 1.0u
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 153-118 (56%)
ARI @ PHI TOTALWIN Over 50.5 1.0u
- over when under 40 degrees, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 21-15 (58%)
DET @ NO TOTALLOSS Under 52.0 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), line inside 3 78-57 (58%)
CIN @ SF TOTALLOSS Over 41.0 1.0u
- over when low total (41 or under), road team travelled 1,500+ miles 107-87 (55%)
CHI @ MIN TOTALLOSS Under 43.5 1.0u
- under when division game, late season 209-167 (56%)
CLE @ SEA TOTALLOSS Over 45.0 1.0u
- over when home team a big favorite, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 80-63 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.