Weekly Lines · 2015
Week 7.
14 games and 9 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2015. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 6-3, +2.6u flat at -110. Season through week 7: 40-37, +8.0u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 SEA @  SFThu, Oct 22 20:25 ET | SF -6.5 | 41.5 | SEA 20 at SF 3SF -6.5 closed · SEA covered |
 ATL @  TENSun, Oct 25 13:00 ET | TEN -5.5 | 45.5 | ATL 10 at TEN 7TEN -5.5 closed · TEN covered |
 BUF @  JAXSun, Oct 25 09:30 ET | JAX -3.5 | 41 | BUF 31 at JAX 34JAX -3.5 closed · JAX covered |
 CLE @  STLSun, Oct 25 13:00 ET | STL +6.5 | 43.5 | CLE 6 at STL 24STL +6.5 closed · STL covered |
 DAL @  NYGSun, Oct 25 16:25 ET | NYG +3 | 44.5 | DAL 20 at NYG 27NYG +3 closed · NYG covered |
 HOU @  MIASun, Oct 25 13:00 ET | MIA +4.5 | 46.5 | HOU 26 at MIA 44MIA +4.5 closed · MIA covered |
 MIN @  DETSun, Oct 25 13:00 ET | DET +1 | 44.5 | MIN 28 at DET 19DET +1 closed · MIN covered |
 NO @  INDSun, Oct 25 13:00 ET | IND +5.5 | 52.5 | NO 27 at IND 21IND +5.5 closed · NO covered |
 NYJ @  NESun, Oct 25 13:00 ET | NE +7 | 47 | NYJ 23 at NE 30NE +7 closed · push |
 OAK @  SDSun, Oct 25 16:05 ET | SD +3.5 | 48 | OAK 37 at SD 29SD +3.5 closed · OAK covered |
 PHI @  CARSun, Oct 25 20:30 ET | CAR +3 | 46 | PHI 16 at CAR 27CAR +3 closed · CAR covered |
 PIT @  KCSun, Oct 25 13:00 ET | KC +4 | 41.5 | PIT 13 at KC 23KC +4 closed · KC covered |
 TB @  WASSun, Oct 25 13:00 ET | WAS +3 | 42 | TB 30 at WAS 31WAS +3 closed · TB covered |
 BAL @  ARIMon, Oct 26 20:30 ET | ARI +10 | 49.5 | BAL 18 at ARI 26ARI +10 closed · BAL covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
BAL @ ARI - model likes them by 0.5+, big favorite (7+), lost last week, better coach 15-7 (68%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, big favorite (7+), better coach, high total (48+) 14-7 (67%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, lost last week, better coach, in a dome 53-27 (66%)
- and 20 more angles on this side
BUF @ JAC - model fades them by 3.0+, lost last week, better coach, low total (41 or under) 53-30 (64%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, better coach, low total (41 or under) 102-60 (63%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, better coach, low total (41 or under) 88-54 (62%)
- and 7 more angles on this side
MIN @ DET - model fades them by 1.0+, worse record, better coach, in a dome 41-20 (67%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, favorite, worse record, in a dome 40-20 (67%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, favorite, worse record, in a dome 46-23 (67%)
- and 22 more angles on this side
PHI @ CAR - model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, less rest than the opponent, better coach 21-13 (62%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better coach 56-35 (62%)
TB @ WAS - model fades them by 3.0+, at home, got blown out last week, worse QB 25-16 (61%)
DAL @ NYG TOTAL- over when line inside 3, home team off Monday night 53-30 (64%)
- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 55-37 (60%)
- over when home team off Monday night 122-85 (59%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
OAK @ SD TOTAL- under when high total (48+), division game 84-59 (59%)
BUF @ JAX TOTAL- over when low total (41 or under), road team travelled 1,500+ miles 107-87 (55%)
BAL @ ARI TOTAL- over when home team a big favorite, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 80-63 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.