Weekly Lines · 2015
Week 17.
16 games and 14 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2015. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 8-6, -0.9u flat at -110. Season through week 17: 96-94, -2.5u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 BAL @  CINSun, Jan 3 13:00 ET | CIN +10 | 40.5 | BAL 16 at CIN 24CIN +10 closed · BAL covered |
 DET @  CHISun, Jan 3 13:00 ET | CHI -2.5 | 45 | DET 24 at CHI 20CHI -2.5 closed · DET covered |
 JAX @  HOUSun, Jan 3 13:00 ET | HOU +5 | 45 | JAX 6 at HOU 30HOU +5 closed · HOU covered |
 MIN @  GBSun, Jan 3 20:30 ET | GB +3 | 44 | MIN 20 at GB 13GB +3 closed · MIN covered |
 NE @  MIASun, Jan 3 13:00 ET | MIA -10 | 46.5 | NE 10 at MIA 20MIA -10 closed · MIA covered |
 NO @  ATLSun, Jan 3 13:00 ET | ATL +6 | 53.5 | NO 20 at ATL 17ATL +6 closed · NO covered |
 NYJ @  BUFSun, Jan 3 13:00 ET | BUF -2.5 | 41 | NYJ 17 at BUF 22BUF -2.5 closed · BUF covered |
 OAK @  KCSun, Jan 3 16:25 ET | KC +6.5 | 43.5 | OAK 17 at KC 23KC +6.5 closed · OAK covered |
 PHI @  NYGSun, Jan 3 13:00 ET | NYG +4 | 51 | PHI 35 at NYG 30NYG +4 closed · PHI covered |
 PIT @  CLESun, Jan 3 13:00 ET | CLE -13 | 47 | PIT 28 at CLE 12CLE -13 closed · PIT covered |
 SD @  DENSun, Jan 3 16:25 ET | DEN +10 | 42 | SD 20 at DEN 27DEN +10 closed · SD covered |
 SEA @  ARISun, Jan 3 16:25 ET | ARI +6 | 46.5 | SEA 36 at ARI 6ARI +6 closed · SEA covered |
 STL @  SFSun, Jan 3 16:25 ET | SF -3 | 39 | STL 16 at SF 19SF -3 closed · SF covered |
 TB @  CARSun, Jan 3 16:25 ET | CAR +10 | 44 | TB 10 at CAR 38CAR +10 closed · CAR covered |
 TEN @  INDSun, Jan 3 13:00 ET | IND +3.5 | 39 | TEN 24 at IND 30IND +3.5 closed · IND covered |
 WAS @  DALSun, Jan 3 13:00 ET | DAL +3 | 41 | WAS 34 at DAL 23DAL +3 closed · WAS covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
TB @ CAR WIN CAR -10 2.0u
- model likes them by 0.5+, big favorite (7+), lost last week, better coach 15-7 (68%)
DET @ CHI LOSS DET -2.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, blew someone out last week, worse QB, division game 33-18 (65%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, blew someone out last week, worse QB, division game 26-16 (62%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, blew someone out last week, division game 44-29 (60%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
MIN @ GB WIN GB -3 1.0u
- model fades them by 1.0+, at home, got blown out last week, better coach 37-21 (64%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, better coach 70-43 (62%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, lost last week, got blown out last week, better coach 70-43 (62%)
- and 9 more angles on this side
JAC @ HOU LOSS HOU -5 3.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, bad QB, better coach, in a dome 15-6 (71%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, favorite, blew someone out last week, in a dome 46-25 (65%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, better coach, division game, in a dome 59-33 (64%)
- and 7 more angles on this side
NE @ MIA LOSS NE -10 2.0u
- model likes them by 0.5+, big favorite (7+), lost last week, better coach 15-7 (68%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, big favorite (7+), lost last week, better QB 14-8 (64%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, better QB, division game 92-55 (63%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
NYJ @ BUF WIN NYJ -2.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, better coach, on turf 86-51 (63%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, better coach, on turf 116-73 (61%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, better coach, on turf 103-65 (61%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
PIT @ CLE LOSS PIT -13 1.0u
- model fades them by 1.0+, big favorite (7+), lost last week, better coach 67-44 (60%)
LAR @ SF LOSS SF +3 1.0u
- model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, got blown out last week, better coach 23-13 (64%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, at home, got blown out last week, better coach 37-21 (64%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, got blown out last week, better coach 28-16 (64%)
- and 10 more angles on this side
PIT @ CLE TOTALWIN Under 47.0 1.0u
- under when windy, division game 60-43 (58%)
- under when division game, late season 209-167 (56%)
NO @ ATL TOTALWIN Under 53.5 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), division game 84-59 (59%)
- under when division game, late season 209-167 (56%)
SEA @ ARI TOTALWIN Under 46.5 1.0u
- under when division game, late season 209-167 (56%)
TB @ CAR TOTALLOSS Under 44.0 1.0u
- under when division game, late season 209-167 (56%)
OAK @ KC TOTALWIN Under 43.5 1.0u
- under when division game, late season 209-167 (56%)
JAX @ HOU TOTALWIN Under 45.0 1.0u
- under when division game, late season 209-167 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.