Weekly Lines · 2015
Week 11.
14 games and 15 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2015. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 7-8, -1.8u flat at -110. Season through week 11: 59-60, -1.6u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 TEN @  JAXThu, Nov 19 20:25 ET | JAX +3 | 41.5 | TEN 13 at JAX 19JAX +3 closed · JAX covered |
 CIN @  ARISun, Nov 22 20:30 ET | ARI +4 | 48 | CIN 31 at ARI 34ARI +4 closed · CIN covered |
 DAL @  MIASun, Nov 22 13:00 ET | MIA -2.5 | 45 | DAL 24 at MIA 14MIA -2.5 closed · DAL covered |
 DEN @  CHISun, Nov 22 13:00 ET | CHI -2.5 | 41.5 | DEN 17 at CHI 15CHI -2.5 closed · CHI covered |
 GB @  MINSun, Nov 22 16:25 ET | MIN -1 | 45 | GB 30 at MIN 13MIN -1 closed · GB covered |
 IND @  ATLSun, Nov 22 13:00 ET | ATL +3.5 | 47.5 | IND 24 at ATL 21ATL +3.5 closed · IND covered |
 KC @  SDSun, Nov 22 16:05 ET | SD -3 | 45.5 | KC 33 at SD 3SD -3 closed · KC covered |
 NYJ @  HOUSun, Nov 22 13:00 ET | HOU -4 | 40 | NYJ 17 at HOU 24HOU -4 closed · HOU covered |
 OAK @  DETSun, Nov 22 13:00 ET | DET -2 | 50 | OAK 13 at DET 18DET -2 closed · DET covered |
 SF @  SEASun, Nov 22 16:25 ET | SEA +14 | 40 | SF 13 at SEA 29SEA +14 closed · SEA covered |
 STL @  BALSun, Nov 22 13:00 ET | BAL +3 | 41 | STL 13 at BAL 16BAL +3 closed · push |
 TB @  PHISun, Nov 22 13:00 ET | PHI +7 | 46 | TB 45 at PHI 17PHI +7 closed · TB covered |
 WAS @  CARSun, Nov 22 13:00 ET | CAR +7 | 44 | WAS 16 at CAR 44CAR +7 closed · CAR covered |
 BUF @  NEMon, Nov 23 20:30 ET | NE +7 | 47.5 | BUF 13 at NE 20NE +7 closed · push |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
NYJ @ HOU - model fades them by 0.5+, worse record, in a dome, low total (41 or under) 27-17 (61%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, less rest than the opponent, low total (41 or under) 20-13 (61%)
LV @ DET - model fades them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, in a dome, on turf 40-25 (62%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, got blown out last week, better record, worse QB 19-12 (61%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, got blown out last week, bad QB 17-11 (61%)
TB @ PHI - model fades them by 3.0+, at home, lost last week, better coach 66-38 (64%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, better coach 135-87 (61%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, at home, better coach 128-83 (61%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
TEN @ JAC - model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, got blown out last week, division game 43-26 (62%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, got blown out last week, worse record, division game 52-33 (61%)
KC @ SD TOTAL- over when line inside 3, home team off Monday night 53-30 (64%)
- over when home team off Monday night 122-85 (59%)
NYJ @ HOU TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 75-47 (62%)
- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 55-37 (60%)
- over when home team off Monday night 122-85 (59%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
TEN @ JAX TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, division game 81-62 (57%)
TB @ PHI TOTAL- under when windy, home team a big favorite 33-25 (57%)
CIN @ ARI TOTAL- over when in a dome, road team off Monday night 15-8 (65%)
SF @ SEA TOTAL- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 153-118 (56%)
STL @ BAL TOTAL- over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 131-99 (57%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 153-118 (56%)
GB @ MIN TOTAL- over when under 40 degrees, line inside 3 55-37 (60%)
DEN @ CHI TOTAL- over when under 40 degrees, line inside 3 55-37 (60%)
- over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 131-99 (57%)
OAK @ DET TOTAL- under when high total (48+), line inside 3 78-57 (58%)
DAL @ MIA TOTAL- over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 131-99 (57%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.