Weekly Lines · 2015
Week 6.
14 games and 12 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2015. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 7-5, +3.5u flat at -110. Season through week 6: 34-34, +5.4u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 ATL @  NOThu, Oct 15 20:25 ET | NO -3 | 52 | ATL 21 at NO 31NO -3 closed · NO covered |
 ARI @  PITSun, Oct 18 13:00 ET | PIT -5.5 | 45 | ARI 13 at PIT 25PIT -5.5 closed · PIT covered |
 BAL @  SFSun, Oct 18 16:25 ET | SF -2.5 | 43.5 | BAL 20 at SF 25SF -2.5 closed · SF covered |
 CAR @  SEASun, Oct 18 16:05 ET | SEA +7 | 41 | CAR 27 at SEA 23SEA +7 closed · CAR covered |
 CHI @  DETSun, Oct 18 13:00 ET | DET +3.5 | 45 | CHI 34 at DET 37DET +3.5 closed · CHI covered |
 CIN @  BUFSun, Oct 18 13:00 ET | BUF -3 | 42.5 | CIN 34 at BUF 21BUF -3 closed · CIN covered |
 DEN @  CLESun, Oct 18 13:00 ET | CLE -3.5 | 41.5 | DEN 26 at CLE 23CLE -3.5 closed · CLE covered |
 HOU @  JAXSun, Oct 18 13:00 ET | JAX +2.5 | 43.5 | HOU 31 at JAX 20JAX +2.5 closed · HOU covered |
 KC @  MINSun, Oct 18 13:00 ET | MIN +3.5 | 43 | KC 10 at MIN 16MIN +3.5 closed · MIN covered |
 MIA @  TENSun, Oct 18 13:00 ET | TEN +2.5 | 44 | MIA 38 at TEN 10TEN +2.5 closed · MIA covered |
 NE @  INDSun, Oct 18 20:30 ET | IND -8 | 53.5 | NE 34 at IND 27IND -8 closed · IND covered |
 SD @  GBSun, Oct 18 16:25 ET | GB +10.5 | 50 | SD 20 at GB 27GB +10.5 closed · SD covered |
 WAS @  NYJSun, Oct 18 13:00 ET | NYJ +7.5 | 39.5 | WAS 20 at NYJ 34NYJ +7.5 closed · NYJ covered |
 NYG @  PHIMon, Oct 19 20:30 ET | PHI +3.5 | 50.5 | NYG 7 at PHI 27PHI +3.5 closed · PHI covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
ARI @ PIT WIN ARI -5.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, on the road, blew someone out last week 63-36 (64%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better record 51-34 (60%)
ATL @ NO LOSS ATL -3 1.0u
- model likes them by 0.5+, better coach, on turf, high total (48+) 40-22 (64%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, elite QB, better coach, high total (48+) 48-27 (64%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, better coach, in a dome, high total (48+) 27-16 (63%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
CIN @ BUF LOSS CIN -3 1.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, won last week, better record, worse QB 55-31 (64%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, won last week, better record, worse QB 76-44 (63%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, better coach, on turf 86-51 (63%)
- and 4 more angles on this side
HOU @ JAC LOSS HOU +2.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, more rest than the opponent, better coach, division game 33-22 (60%)
LAC @ GB WIN LAC +10.5 3.0u
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, elite QB 21-9 (70%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, elite QB 23-10 (70%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, elite QB, high total (48+) 21-12 (64%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
NYG @ PHI WIN NYG +3.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, better QB, high total (48+) 16-10 (62%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, better QB, high total (48+) 12-8 (60%)
ARI @ PIT TOTALLOSS Over 45.0 1.0u
- over when home team off Monday night, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 30-13 (70%)
- over when early season, home team off Monday night 45-21 (68%)
- over when a new starting QB, early season 66-38 (64%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
DEN @ CLE TOTALWIN Over 41.5 1.0u
- over when windy, early season 30-24 (56%)
CAR @ SEA TOTALWIN Over 41.0 1.0u
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 153-118 (56%)
- over when home team a big favorite, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 80-63 (56%)
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 175-141 (55%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
NYG @ PHI TOTALWIN Under 50.5 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), division game 84-59 (59%)
SD @ GB TOTALLOSS Over 50.0 1.0u
- over when home team a big favorite, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 80-63 (56%)
CIN @ BUF TOTALWIN Over 42.5 1.0u
- over when a new starting QB, early season 66-38 (64%)
- over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 131-99 (57%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.