Weekly Lines · 2016
Week 1.
16 games and 12 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2016. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 5-7, -4.9u flat at -110. Season through week 1: 5-7, -4.9u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 CAR @  DENThu, Sep 8 20:30 ET | DEN -3 | 40.5 | CAR 20 at DEN 21DEN -3 closed · DEN covered |
 BUF @  BALSun, Sep 11 13:00 ET | BAL +3 | 44.5 | BUF 7 at BAL 13BAL +3 closed · BAL covered |
 CHI @  HOUSun, Sep 11 13:00 ET | HOU +5.5 | 43 | CHI 14 at HOU 23HOU +5.5 closed · HOU covered |
 CIN @  NYJSun, Sep 11 13:00 ET | NYJ +1 | 42 | CIN 23 at NYJ 22NYJ +1 closed · CIN covered |
 CLE @  PHISun, Sep 11 13:00 ET | PHI +3.5 | 41 | CLE 10 at PHI 29PHI +3.5 closed · PHI covered |
 DET @  INDSun, Sep 11 16:25 ET | IND +2.5 | 51.5 | DET 39 at IND 35IND +2.5 closed · DET covered |
 GB @  JAXSun, Sep 11 13:00 ET | JAX -3.5 | 47 | GB 27 at JAX 23JAX -3.5 closed · GB covered |
 MIA @  SEASun, Sep 11 16:05 ET | SEA +10.5 | 43.5 | MIA 10 at SEA 12SEA +10.5 closed · MIA covered |
 MIN @  TENSun, Sep 11 13:00 ET | TEN -2.5 | 40 | MIN 25 at TEN 16TEN -2.5 closed · MIN covered |
 NE @  ARISun, Sep 11 20:30 ET | ARI +9 | 44.5 | NE 23 at ARI 21ARI +9 closed · NE covered |
 NYG @  DALSun, Sep 11 16:25 ET | DAL +1 | 47.5 | NYG 20 at DAL 19DAL +1 closed · NYG covered |
 OAK @  NOSun, Sep 11 13:00 ET | NO +2.5 | 50 | OAK 35 at NO 34NO +2.5 closed · OAK covered |
 SD @  KCSun, Sep 11 13:00 ET | KC +6.5 | 45.5 | SD 27 at KC 33KC +6.5 closed · SD covered |
 TB @  ATLSun, Sep 11 13:00 ET | ATL +2.5 | 46.5 | TB 31 at ATL 24ATL +2.5 closed · TB covered |
 LA @  SFMon, Sep 12 22:20 ET | SF -2.5 | 44 | LA 0 at SF 28SF -2.5 closed · SF covered |
 PIT @  WASMon, Sep 12 19:10 ET | WAS -2.5 | 49 | PIT 38 at WAS 16WAS -2.5 closed · PIT covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
NE @ ARI - model fades them by 2.0+, big favorite (7+), elite QB, in a dome 36-20 (64%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, big favorite (7+), elite QB, in a dome 43-27 (61%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, elite QB, in a dome 68-45 (60%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
CIN @ NYJ - model likes them by 2.0+, on the road, elite QB, on turf 42-28 (60%)
DET @ IND - model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, better QB, high total (48+) 41-26 (61%)
LV @ NO - model likes them by 2.0+, elite QB, in a dome, high total (48+) 26-17 (60%)
- model likes them by 2.0+, at home, in a dome, high total (48+) 33-22 (60%)
NYG @ DAL - model fades them by 0.5+, better coach, division game, in a dome 66-35 (65%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, better coach, division game, in a dome 54-29 (65%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, worse QB, better coach, in a dome 49-32 (60%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
TB @ ATL - model fades them by 0.5+, better coach, division game, in a dome 66-35 (65%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, better coach, division game, in a dome 54-29 (65%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, worse QB, better coach, in a dome 49-32 (60%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
PIT @ WAS TOTAL- under when high total (48+), line inside 3 84-64 (57%)
DET @ IND TOTAL- under when high total (48+), line inside 3 84-64 (57%)
OAK @ NO TOTAL- under when high total (48+), line inside 3 84-64 (57%)
CLE @ PHI TOTAL- over when low total (41 or under), early season 184-144 (56%)
MIN @ TEN TOTAL- over when low total (41 or under), early season 184-144 (56%)
CAR @ DEN TOTAL- over when low total (41 or under), early season 184-144 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.