Weekly Lines · 2016
Week 7.
15 games and 8 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2016. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 6-2, +3.7u flat at -110. Season through week 7: 38-29, +9.7u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 CHI @  GBThu, Oct 20 20:25 ET | GB +7.5 | 46.5 | CHI 10 at GB 26GB +7.5 closed · GB covered |
 BAL @  NYJSun, Oct 23 13:00 ET | NYJ +2 | 40.5 | BAL 16 at NYJ 24NYJ +2 closed · NYJ covered |
 BUF @  MIASun, Oct 23 13:00 ET | MIA -2.5 | 46 | BUF 25 at MIA 28MIA -2.5 closed · MIA covered |
 CLE @  CINSun, Oct 23 13:00 ET | CIN +11.5 | 46.5 | CLE 17 at CIN 31CIN +11.5 closed · CIN covered |
 IND @  TENSun, Oct 23 13:00 ET | TEN +4 | 48.5 | IND 34 at TEN 26TEN +4 closed · IND covered |
 MIN @  PHISun, Oct 23 13:00 ET | PHI -2.5 | 39 | MIN 10 at PHI 21PHI -2.5 closed · PHI covered |
 NE @  PITSun, Oct 23 16:25 ET | PIT -7.5 | 49 | NE 27 at PIT 16PIT -7.5 closed · NE covered |
 NO @  KCSun, Oct 23 13:00 ET | KC +6 | 51 | NO 21 at KC 27KC +6 closed · push |
 NYG @  LASun, Oct 23 09:30 ET | LA -3 | 44.5 | NYG 17 at LA 10LA -3 closed · NYG covered |
 OAK @  JAXSun, Oct 23 13:00 ET | JAX +1.5 | 47.5 | OAK 33 at JAX 16JAX +1.5 closed · OAK covered |
 SD @  ATLSun, Oct 23 16:05 ET | ATL +4.5 | 52.5 | SD 33 at ATL 30ATL +4.5 closed · SD covered |
 SEA @  ARISun, Oct 23 20:30 ET | ARI +2.5 | 43 | SEA 6 at ARI 6ARI +2.5 closed · SEA covered |
 TB @  SFSun, Oct 23 16:05 ET | SF +1 | 45 | TB 34 at SF 17SF +1 closed · TB covered |
 WAS @  DETSun, Oct 23 13:00 ET | DET -1 | 50 | WAS 17 at DET 20DET -1 closed · DET covered |
 HOU @  DENMon, Oct 24 20:30 ET | DEN +8.5 | 40 | HOU 9 at DEN 27DEN +8.5 closed · DEN covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
LAC @ ATL - model likes them by 0.5+, favorite, less rest than the opponent, high total (48+) 21-10 (68%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, better record, high total (48+) 18-9 (67%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, better coach, high total (48+) 21-11 (66%)
- and 7 more angles on this side
TB @ SF - model fades them by 3.0+, at home, got blown out last week, worse QB 32-17 (65%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, lost last week, worse QB 73-46 (61%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, got blown out last week, worse QB 26-17 (60%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
WAS @ DET - model fades them by 1.0+, won last week, in a dome, high total (48+) 44-26 (63%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, won last week, in a dome, high total (48+) 49-29 (63%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, elite QB, in a dome 48-29 (62%)
- and 10 more angles on this side
SEA @ ARI TOTAL- over when line inside 3, home team off Monday night 56-33 (63%)
- over when in a dome, home team off Monday night 29-20 (59%)
- over when home team off Monday night 132-92 (59%)
MIN @ PHI TOTAL- under when windy, line inside 3 59-43 (58%)
WAS @ DET TOTAL- under when high total (48+), line inside 3 84-64 (57%)
NE @ PIT TOTAL- under when home team a big underdog, a new starting QB 52-40 (56%)
TB @ SF TOTAL- over when a new starting QB, road team off Monday night 33-10 (77%)
- over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 141-113 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.