Weekly Lines · 2016
Week 6.
15 games and 8 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2016. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 5-3, +2.7u flat at -110. Season through week 6: 32-27, +6.0u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 DEN @  SDThu, Oct 13 20:25 ET | SD -3 | 44 | DEN 13 at SD 21SD -3 closed · SD covered |
 ATL @  SEASun, Oct 16 16:25 ET | SEA +7 | 45.5 | ATL 24 at SEA 26SEA +7 closed · ATL covered |
 BAL @  NYGSun, Oct 16 13:00 ET | NYG +3.5 | 42.5 | BAL 23 at NYG 27NYG +3.5 closed · NYG covered |
 CAR @  NOSun, Oct 16 13:00 ET | NO -2.5 | 53.5 | CAR 38 at NO 41NO -2.5 closed · NO covered |
 CIN @  NESun, Oct 16 13:00 ET | NE +7.5 | 48.5 | CIN 17 at NE 35NE +7.5 closed · NE covered |
 CLE @  TENSun, Oct 16 13:00 ET | TEN +7.5 | 45 | CLE 26 at TEN 28TEN +7.5 closed · CLE covered |
 DAL @  GBSun, Oct 16 16:25 ET | GB +5 | 47 | DAL 30 at GB 16GB +5 closed · DAL covered |
 IND @  HOUSun, Oct 16 20:30 ET | HOU +3 | 47.5 | IND 23 at HOU 26HOU +3 closed · push |
 JAX @  CHISun, Oct 16 13:00 ET | CHI +2.5 | 46 | JAX 17 at CHI 16CHI +2.5 closed · JAX covered |
 KC @  OAKSun, Oct 16 16:05 ET | OAK -1 | 46.5 | KC 26 at OAK 10OAK -1 closed · KC covered |
 LA @  DETSun, Oct 16 13:00 ET | DET +2.5 | 44 | LA 28 at DET 31DET +2.5 closed · DET covered |
 PHI @  WASSun, Oct 16 13:00 ET | WAS -3 | 45 | PHI 20 at WAS 27WAS -3 closed · WAS covered |
 PIT @  MIASun, Oct 16 13:00 ET | MIA -7.5 | 49.5 | PIT 15 at MIA 30MIA -7.5 closed · MIA covered |
 SF @  BUFSun, Oct 16 13:00 ET | BUF +7.5 | 44 | SF 16 at BUF 45BUF +7.5 closed · BUF covered |
 NYJ @  ARIMon, Oct 17 20:30 ET | ARI +7.5 | 46 | NYJ 3 at ARI 28ARI +7.5 closed · ARI covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
ATL @ SEA - model fades them by 0.5+, big underdog (7+), on the road, won last week 31-20 (61%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, big underdog (7+), won last week 34-22 (61%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, big underdog (7+), won last week 34-22 (61%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
SF @ BUF - model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, elite QB 39-21 (65%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, better record, elite QB 31-17 (65%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, big favorite (7+), less rest than the opponent, better QB 15-9 (62%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
DEN @ 
LAC - model fades them by 2.0+, worse QB, better coach, division game 47-28 (63%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, better record, worse QB, division game 61-38 (62%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, better record, worse QB, division game 48-30 (62%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
KC @ 
LV - model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, more rest than the opponent, got blown out last week 18-10 (64%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, lost last week, got blown out last week, better coach 43-24 (64%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, got blown out last week, better coach 43-24 (64%)
- and 18 more angles on this side
PIT @ MIA - model fades them by 0.5+, big favorite (7+), on the road, blew someone out last week 32-20 (62%)
KC @ OAK TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, division game 92-68 (57%)
PIT @ MIA TOTAL- over when rain in the forecast, home team a big underdog 18-8 (69%)
- over when windy, early season 34-26 (57%)
CIN @ NE TOTAL- over when a new starting QB, early season 69-44 (61%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.