Weekly Lines · 2016
Week 5.
14 games and 11 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2016. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 6-5, +0.5u flat at -110. Season through week 5: 27-24, +3.3u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 ARI @  SFThu, Oct 6 20:25 ET | SF -3.5 | 42.5 | ARI 33 at SF 21SF -3.5 closed · ARI covered |
 ATL @  DENSun, Oct 9 16:05 ET | DEN +3.5 | 44.5 | ATL 23 at DEN 16DEN +3.5 closed · ATL covered |
 BUF @  LASun, Oct 9 16:25 ET | LA -2.5 | 41.5 | BUF 30 at LA 19LA -2.5 closed · BUF covered |
 CHI @  INDSun, Oct 9 13:00 ET | IND +4 | 47.5 | CHI 23 at IND 29IND +4 closed · IND covered |
 CIN @  DALSun, Oct 9 16:25 ET | DAL -2.5 | 46 | CIN 14 at DAL 28DAL -2.5 closed · DAL covered |
 HOU @  MINSun, Oct 9 13:00 ET | MIN +6 | 39 | HOU 13 at MIN 31MIN +6 closed · MIN covered |
 NE @  CLESun, Oct 9 13:00 ET | CLE -10 | 47.5 | NE 33 at CLE 13CLE -10 closed · NE covered |
 NYG @  GBSun, Oct 9 20:30 ET | GB +7 | 49 | NYG 16 at GB 23GB +7 closed · push |
 NYJ @  PITSun, Oct 9 13:00 ET | PIT +10 | 50 | NYJ 13 at PIT 31PIT +10 closed · PIT covered |
 PHI @  DETSun, Oct 9 13:00 ET | DET -3.5 | 46 | PHI 23 at DET 24DET -3.5 closed · DET covered |
 SD @  OAKSun, Oct 9 16:25 ET | OAK +3.5 | 50.5 | SD 31 at OAK 34OAK +3.5 closed · SD covered |
 TEN @  MIASun, Oct 9 13:00 ET | MIA +2.5 | 44.5 | TEN 30 at MIA 17MIA +2.5 closed · TEN covered |
 WAS @  BALSun, Oct 9 13:00 ET | BAL +4 | 44.5 | WAS 16 at BAL 10BAL +4 closed · WAS covered |
 TB @  CARMon, Oct 10 20:30 ET | CAR +6 | 46.5 | TB 17 at CAR 14CAR +6 closed · TB covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
WAS @ BAL - model fades them by 3.0+, at home, lost last week, worse QB 73-46 (61%)
TB @ CAR - model fades them by 2.0+, worse QB, better coach, division game 47-28 (63%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, at home, better coach, division game 80-48 (62%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, at home, got blown out last week, better coach 40-24 (62%)
- and 9 more angles on this side
CHI @ IND - model likes them by 1.0+, won last week, bad QB, on turf 26-16 (62%)
- model likes them by 2.0+, won last week, bad QB, on turf 21-14 (60%)
ATL @ DEN - model fades them by 0.5+, blew someone out last week, better record, worse QB 51-28 (65%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, blew someone out last week, better record, worse QB 46-26 (64%)
TEN @ MIA - model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, more rest than the opponent, got blown out last week 18-10 (64%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, more rest than the opponent, got blown out last week 13-8 (62%)
NE @ CLE - model fades them by 3.0+, lost last week, got blown out last week, better coach 43-24 (64%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, got blown out last week, better coach 43-24 (64%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, got blown out last week, better QB, better coach 22-13 (63%)
- and 15 more angles on this side
HOU @ MIN TOTAL- over when early season, home team off Monday night 46-25 (65%)
- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 81-50 (62%)
- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 63-40 (61%)
- and 5 more angles on this side
WAS @ BAL TOTAL- over when windy, early season 34-26 (57%)
TB @ CAR TOTAL- over when a new starting QB, early season 69-44 (61%)
ATL @ DEN TOTAL- over when a new starting QB, early season 69-44 (61%)
CHI @ IND TOTAL- over when a new starting QB, early season 69-44 (61%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.