Weekly Lines · 2016
Week 13.
15 games and 12 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2016. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 4-8, -5.9u flat at -110. Season through week 13: 60-61, -7.1u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 DAL @  MINThu, Dec 1 20:25 ET | MIN -3 | 43.5 | DAL 17 at MIN 15MIN -3 closed · MIN covered |
 BUF @  OAKSun, Dec 4 16:05 ET | OAK +3 | 48.5 | BUF 24 at OAK 38OAK +3 closed · OAK covered |
 CAR @  SEASun, Dec 4 20:30 ET | SEA +8.5 | 44 | CAR 7 at SEA 40SEA +8.5 closed · SEA covered |
 DEN @  JAXSun, Dec 4 13:00 ET | JAX -3.5 | 39 | DEN 20 at JAX 10JAX -3.5 closed · DEN covered |
 DET @  NOSun, Dec 4 13:00 ET | NO +6.5 | 53 | DET 28 at NO 13NO +6.5 closed · DET covered |
 HOU @  GBSun, Dec 4 13:00 ET | GB +7 | 44.5 | HOU 13 at GB 21GB +7 closed · GB covered |
 KC @  ATLSun, Dec 4 13:00 ET | ATL +5 | 50 | KC 29 at ATL 28ATL +5 closed · KC covered |
 LA @  NESun, Dec 4 13:00 ET | NE +13 | 44.5 | LA 10 at NE 26NE +13 closed · NE covered |
 MIA @  BALSun, Dec 4 13:00 ET | BAL +3.5 | 41.5 | MIA 6 at BAL 38BAL +3.5 closed · BAL covered |
 NYG @  PITSun, Dec 4 16:25 ET | PIT +7 | 49.5 | NYG 14 at PIT 24PIT +7 closed · PIT covered |
 PHI @  CINSun, Dec 4 13:00 ET | CIN +1 | 42 | PHI 14 at CIN 32CIN +1 closed · CIN covered |
 SF @  CHISun, Dec 4 13:00 ET | CHI PK | 44 | SF 6 at CHI 26CHI PK closed · CHI covered |
 TB @  SDSun, Dec 4 16:25 ET | SD +3.5 | 49 | TB 28 at SD 21SD +3.5 closed · TB covered |
 WAS @  ARISun, Dec 4 16:25 ET | ARI +2.5 | 48.5 | WAS 23 at ARI 31ARI +2.5 closed · ARI covered |
 IND @  NYJMon, Dec 5 20:30 ET | NYJ +1 | 48.5 | IND 41 at NYJ 10NYJ +1 closed · IND covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
BUF @ 
LV - model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, better QB, high total (48+) 18-12 (60%)
HOU @ GB - model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better coach 47-22 (68%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better coach 30-17 (64%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better coach 56-33 (63%)
- and 5 more angles on this side
KC @ ATL - model fades them by 0.5+, won last week, in a dome, high total (48+) 49-29 (63%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, worse QB, better coach, in a dome 49-32 (60%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, better coach, on turf 129-86 (60%)
TB @ 
LAC - model fades them by 3.0+, won last week, worse record, elite QB 18-11 (62%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, won last week, worse record, elite QB 21-14 (60%)
HOU @ GB TOTAL- over when rain in the forecast, home team off Monday night 22-4 (85%)
- over when home team off Monday night 132-92 (59%)
- over when a team looking ahead to a division game, home team off Monday night 74-54 (58%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
NYG @ PIT TOTAL- under when windy, home team a big favorite 36-27 (57%)
SF @ CHI TOTAL- over when under 40 degrees, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 24-16 (60%)
- over when under 40 degrees, line inside 3 58-42 (58%)
- over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 141-113 (56%)
CAR @ SEA TOTAL- over when under 40 degrees, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 24-16 (60%)
LA @ NE TOTAL- over when under 40 degrees, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 24-16 (60%)
IND @ NYJ TOTAL- under when high total (48+), line inside 3 84-64 (57%)
WAS @ ARI TOTAL- under when high total (48+), line inside 3 84-64 (57%)
BUF @ OAK TOTAL- under when high total (48+), line inside 3 84-64 (57%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.