Weekly Lines · 2016
Week 11.
14 games and 7 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2016. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 3-4, -3.6u flat at -110. Season through week 11: 54-48, +2.3u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 NO @  CARThu, Nov 17 20:25 ET | CAR +3.5 | 52.5 | NO 20 at CAR 23CAR +3.5 closed · NO covered |
 ARI @  MINSun, Nov 20 13:00 ET | MIN +2 | 39.5 | ARI 24 at MIN 30MIN +2 closed · MIN covered |
 BAL @  DALSun, Nov 20 13:00 ET | DAL +7 | 44.5 | BAL 17 at DAL 27DAL +7 closed · DAL covered |
 BUF @  CINSun, Nov 20 13:00 ET | CIN +2.5 | 48 | BUF 16 at CIN 12CIN +2.5 closed · BUF covered |
 CHI @  NYGSun, Nov 20 13:00 ET | NYG +7 | 41.5 | CHI 16 at NYG 22NYG +7 closed · CHI covered |
 GB @  WASSun, Nov 20 20:30 ET | WAS +2.5 | 48.5 | GB 24 at WAS 42WAS +2.5 closed · WAS covered |
 JAX @  DETSun, Nov 20 13:00 ET | DET +5.5 | 47 | JAX 19 at DET 26DET +5.5 closed · DET covered |
 MIA @  LASun, Nov 20 16:05 ET | LA +1 | 39 | MIA 14 at LA 10LA +1 closed · MIA covered |
 NE @  SFSun, Nov 20 16:25 ET | SF -10.5 | 51.5 | NE 30 at SF 17SF -10.5 closed · NE covered |
 PHI @  SEASun, Nov 20 16:25 ET | SEA +6.5 | 43 | PHI 15 at SEA 26SEA +6.5 closed · SEA covered |
 PIT @  CLESun, Nov 20 13:00 ET | CLE -8 | 45.5 | PIT 24 at CLE 9CLE -8 closed · PIT covered |
 TB @  KCSun, Nov 20 13:00 ET | KC +7 | 45 | TB 19 at KC 17KC +7 closed · TB covered |
 TEN @  INDSun, Nov 20 13:00 ET | IND +3 | 53.5 | TEN 17 at IND 24IND +3 closed · IND covered |
 HOU @  OAKMon, Nov 21 20:30 ET | OAK +6.5 | 45.5 | HOU 20 at OAK 27OAK +6.5 closed · OAK covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
HOU @ 
LV - model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, won last week 52-33 (61%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, won last week 47-30 (61%)
TB @ KC - model fades them by 0.5+, big favorite (7+), worse QB, better coach 44-28 (61%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, big favorite (7+), worse QB, better coach 42-28 (60%)
TEN @ IND - model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, high total (48+) 15-6 (71%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, division game 17-7 (71%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, high total (48+) 14-6 (70%)
- and 28 more angles on this side
CHI @ NYG TOTAL- over when rain in the forecast, home team off Monday night 22-4 (85%)
- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 63-40 (61%)
- over when home team off Monday night 132-92 (59%)
ARI @ MIN TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 81-50 (62%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 162-124 (57%)
TEN @ IND TOTAL- under when high total (48+), line inside 3 84-64 (57%)
MIA @ LA TOTAL- over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 141-113 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.