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Weekly Lines · 2016

Week 4.

15 games and 14 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2016. Every number is open.

This week's plays: 8-6, +5.4u flat at -110. Season through week 4: 21-19, +2.8u flat at -110.

GameMarketTotalFinal
MIA @ CINThu, Sep 29 20:25 ETCIN +7.546MIA 7 at CIN 22CIN +7.5 closed · CIN covered
BUF @ NESun, Oct 2 13:00 ETNE +3.541BUF 16 at NE 0NE +3.5 closed · BUF covered
CAR @ ATLSun, Oct 2 13:00 ETATL -2.548.5CAR 33 at ATL 48ATL -2.5 closed · ATL covered
CLE @ WASSun, Oct 2 13:00 ETWAS +7.548CLE 20 at WAS 31WAS +7.5 closed · WAS covered
DAL @ SFSun, Oct 2 16:25 ETSF -144DAL 24 at SF 17SF -1 closed · DAL covered
DEN @ TBSun, Oct 2 16:05 ETTB -3.543DEN 27 at TB 7TB -3.5 closed · DEN covered
DET @ CHISun, Oct 2 13:00 ETCHI -348DET 14 at CHI 17CHI -3 closed · CHI covered
IND @ JAXSun, Oct 2 09:30 ETJAX +148IND 27 at JAX 30JAX +1 closed · JAX covered
KC @ PITSun, Oct 2 20:30 ETPIT +348KC 14 at PIT 43PIT +3 closed · PIT covered
LA @ ARISun, Oct 2 16:25 ETARI +1043.5LA 17 at ARI 13ARI +10 closed · LA covered
NO @ SDSun, Oct 2 16:25 ETSD +454NO 35 at SD 34SD +4 closed · NO covered
OAK @ BALSun, Oct 2 13:00 ETBAL +3.545OAK 28 at BAL 27BAL +3.5 closed · OAK covered
SEA @ NYJSun, Oct 2 13:00 ETNYJ -140SEA 27 at NYJ 17NYJ -1 closed · SEA covered
TEN @ HOUSun, Oct 2 13:00 ETHOU +440TEN 20 at HOU 27HOU +4 closed · HOU covered
NYG @ MINMon, Oct 3 20:30 ETMIN +3.542.5NYG 10 at MIN 24MIN +3.5 closed · MIN covered
The market line as posted, and how each game finished.

The plays

A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.

The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each

BUF @ NE
WIN BUF +3.5 3.0u
  • model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, division game 17-7 (71%)
  • model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, elite QB 24-10 (71%)
  • model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, elite QB 26-11 (70%)
  • and 23 more angles on this side
DEN @ TB
LOSS DEN -3.5 1.0u
  • model fades them by 2.0+, won last week, better record, worse QB 85-52 (62%)
  • model fades them by 3.0+, won last week, better record, worse QB 62-39 (61%)
DET @ CHI
LOSS DET -3 1.0u
  • model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, better QB, division game 105-61 (63%)
  • model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, better QB, high total (48+) 41-26 (61%)
  • model likes them by 1.0+, favorite, on the road, high total (48+) 14-9 (61%)
IND @ JAC
LOSS IND +1 1.0u
  • model likes them by 1.0+, won last week, better record, bad QB 34-21 (62%)
  • model likes them by 2.0+, better record, better coach, high total (48+) 24-15 (62%)
  • model likes them by 0.5+, better record, worse QB, bad QB 46-30 (60%)
KC @ PIT
WIN KC +3 1.0u
  • model fades them by 0.5+, blew someone out last week, worse QB, high total (48+) 23-15 (60%)
NO @ LAC
WIN NO +4 3.0u
  • model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, elite QB 26-11 (70%)
  • model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, better coach, high total (48+) 21-11 (66%)
  • model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, elite QB, better coach 35-22 (61%)
  • and 3 more angles on this side
NYG @ MIN
WIN NYG +3.5 1.0u
  • model fades them by 1.0+, worse record, better QB, in a dome 34-19 (64%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, worse record, better QB, in a dome 36-23 (61%)
DAL @ SF
WIN SF +1 1.0u
  • model fades them by 1.0+, at home, got blown out last week, better coach 40-24 (62%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, lost last week, got blown out last week, better coach 74-49 (60%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, better coach 74-49 (60%)
TEN @ HOU TOTAL
WIN Over 40.0 1.0u
  • over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 81-50 (62%)
  • over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 162-124 (57%)
  • over when low total (41 or under), early season 184-144 (56%)
BUF @ NE TOTAL
LOSS Over 41.0 1.0u
  • over when a new starting QB, early season 69-44 (61%)
  • over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 162-124 (57%)
  • over when low total (41 or under), early season 184-144 (56%)
SEA @ NYJ TOTAL
WIN Over 40.0 1.0u
  • over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 162-124 (57%)
  • over when low total (41 or under), early season 184-144 (56%)
KC @ PIT TOTAL
LOSS Under 48.0 1.0u
  • under when high total (48+), line inside 3 84-64 (57%)
IND @ JAX TOTAL
LOSS Under 48.0 1.0u
  • under when high total (48+), line inside 3 84-64 (57%)
CLE @ WAS TOTAL
WIN Over 48.0 1.0u
  • over when a new starting QB, early season 69-44 (61%)

Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.

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