Weekly Lines · 2016
Week 17.
16 games and 15 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2016. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 7-8, -1.8u flat at -110. Season through week 17: 89-95, -17.1u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 ARI @  LASun, Jan 1 16:25 ET | LA -7 | 39 | ARI 44 at LA 6LA -7 closed · ARI covered |
 BAL @  CINSun, Jan 1 13:00 ET | CIN -2.5 | 40.5 | BAL 10 at CIN 27CIN -2.5 closed · CIN covered |
 BUF @  NYJSun, Jan 1 13:00 ET | NYJ -3.5 | 43 | BUF 10 at NYJ 30NYJ -3.5 closed · NYJ covered |
 CAR @  TBSun, Jan 1 13:00 ET | TB +3.5 | 44.5 | CAR 16 at TB 17TB +3.5 closed · CAR covered |
 CHI @  MINSun, Jan 1 13:00 ET | MIN +6 | 44 | CHI 10 at MIN 38MIN +6 closed · MIN covered |
 CLE @  PITSun, Jan 1 13:00 ET | PIT +3.5 | 41.5 | CLE 24 at PIT 27PIT +3.5 closed · CLE covered |
 DAL @  PHISun, Jan 1 13:00 ET | PHI +6.5 | 44 | DAL 13 at PHI 27PHI +6.5 closed · PHI covered |
 GB @  DETSun, Jan 1 20:30 ET | DET -3.5 | 50 | GB 31 at DET 24DET -3.5 closed · GB covered |
 HOU @  TENSun, Jan 1 13:00 ET | TEN +3 | 41.5 | HOU 17 at TEN 24TEN +3 closed · TEN covered |
 JAX @  INDSun, Jan 1 13:00 ET | IND +5.5 | 48.5 | JAX 20 at IND 24IND +5.5 closed · JAX covered |
 KC @  SDSun, Jan 1 16:25 ET | SD -5.5 | 45 | KC 37 at SD 27SD -5.5 closed · KC covered |
 NE @  MIASun, Jan 1 13:00 ET | MIA -7.5 | 47 | NE 35 at MIA 14MIA -7.5 closed · NE covered |
 NO @  ATLSun, Jan 1 16:25 ET | ATL +7.5 | 58.5 | NO 32 at ATL 38ATL +7.5 closed · NO covered |
 NYG @  WASSun, Jan 1 16:25 ET | WAS +10 | 47.5 | NYG 19 at WAS 10WAS +10 closed · NYG covered |
 OAK @  DENSun, Jan 1 16:25 ET | DEN +1 | 40 | OAK 6 at DEN 24DEN +1 closed · DEN covered |
 SEA @  SFSun, Jan 1 16:25 ET | SF -11.5 | 44.5 | SEA 25 at SF 23SF -11.5 closed · SF covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
BUF @ NYJ - model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, better QB, on turf 71-44 (62%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, on the road, on turf 98-65 (60%)
CAR @ TB - model fades them by 2.0+, underdog, got blown out last week, better coach 19-12 (61%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, got blown out last week, better coach 57-37 (61%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, lost last week, got blown out last week, better coach 57-37 (61%)
- and 5 more angles on this side
LV @ DEN - model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, got blown out last week, division game 18-12 (60%)
SEA @ SF - model fades them by 0.5+, big underdog (7+), won last week, division game 19-12 (61%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, big underdog (7+), won last week 34-22 (61%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, big underdog (7+), won last week 34-22 (61%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
HOU @ TEN - model likes them by 0.5+, got blown out last week, worse QB, division game 43-28 (61%)
KC @ SD TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, division game 92-68 (57%)
- under when division game, late season 235-182 (56%)
NE @ MIA TOTAL- under when windy, division game 69-46 (60%)
- under when home team a big underdog, a new starting QB 52-40 (56%)
- under when division game, late season 235-182 (56%)
NO @ ATL TOTAL- under when division game, late season 235-182 (56%)
SEA @ SF TOTAL- under when division game, late season 235-182 (56%)
NYG @ WAS TOTAL- under when division game, late season 235-182 (56%)
JAX @ IND TOTAL- under when division game, late season 235-182 (56%)
CHI @ MIN TOTAL- under when division game, late season 235-182 (56%)
BUF @ NYJ TOTAL- under when division game, late season 235-182 (56%)
CLE @ PIT TOTAL- under when division game, late season 235-182 (56%)
CAR @ TB TOTAL- under when division game, late season 235-182 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.