Weekly Lines · 2016
Week 12.
16 games and 7 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2016. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 2-5, -3.5u flat at -110. Season through week 12: 56-53, -1.2u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 MIN @  DETThu, Nov 24 12:30 ET | DET +2 | 42 | MIN 13 at DET 16DET +2 closed · DET covered |
 PIT @  INDThu, Nov 24 20:30 ET | IND -8 | 50 | PIT 28 at IND 7IND -8 closed · PIT covered |
 WAS @  DALThu, Nov 24 16:30 ET | DAL +5.5 | 53 | WAS 26 at DAL 31DAL +5.5 closed · WAS covered |
 ARI @  ATLSun, Nov 27 13:00 ET | ATL +3.5 | 49 | ARI 19 at ATL 38ATL +3.5 closed · ATL covered |
 CAR @  OAKSun, Nov 27 16:25 ET | OAK +3.5 | 48.5 | CAR 32 at OAK 35OAK +3.5 closed · CAR covered |
 CIN @  BALSun, Nov 27 13:00 ET | BAL +3.5 | 42 | CIN 14 at BAL 19BAL +3.5 closed · BAL covered |
 JAX @  BUFSun, Nov 27 13:00 ET | BUF +8.5 | 43.5 | JAX 21 at BUF 28BUF +8.5 closed · JAX covered |
 KC @  DENSun, Nov 27 20:30 ET | DEN +3.5 | 40 | KC 30 at DEN 27DEN +3.5 closed · KC covered |
 LA @  NOSun, Nov 27 13:00 ET | NO +7.5 | 46 | LA 21 at NO 49NO +7.5 closed · NO covered |
 NE @  NYJSun, Nov 27 16:25 ET | NYJ -9 | 48 | NE 22 at NYJ 17NYJ -9 closed · NYJ covered |
 NYG @  CLESun, Nov 27 13:00 ET | CLE -6.5 | 47 | NYG 27 at CLE 13CLE -6.5 closed · NYG covered |
 SD @  HOUSun, Nov 27 13:00 ET | HOU -2.5 | 45.5 | SD 21 at HOU 13HOU -2.5 closed · SD covered |
 SEA @  TBSun, Nov 27 16:05 ET | TB -5 | 46 | SEA 5 at TB 14TB -5 closed · TB covered |
 SF @  MIASun, Nov 27 13:00 ET | MIA +7 | 44.5 | SF 24 at MIA 31MIA +7 closed · push |
 TEN @  CHISun, Nov 27 13:00 ET | CHI -6.5 | 41.5 | TEN 27 at CHI 21CHI -6.5 closed · CHI covered |
 GB @  PHIMon, Nov 28 20:30 ET | PHI +4 | 47 | GB 27 at PHI 13PHI +4 closed · GB covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
MIN @ DET - model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, division game, in a dome 62-40 (61%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, division game, in a dome, on turf 69-45 (60%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, favorite, division game, in a dome 89-59 (60%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
GB @ PHI - model fades them by 2.0+, underdog, got blown out last week, better coach 19-12 (61%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, got blown out last week, better coach 57-37 (61%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, lost last week, got blown out last week, better coach 57-37 (61%)
- and 4 more angles on this side
LAR @ NO - model fades them by 0.5+, big favorite (7+), elite QB, in a dome 45-30 (60%)
CAR @ OAK TOTAL- over when rain in the forecast, home team off Monday night 22-4 (85%)
- over when home team off Monday night, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 33-14 (70%)
- over when high total (48+), home team off Monday night 30-14 (68%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
SD @ HOU TOTAL- over when line inside 3, home team off Monday night 56-33 (63%)
- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 63-40 (61%)
- over when in a dome, home team off Monday night 29-20 (59%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
KC @ DEN TOTAL- under when windy, division game 69-46 (60%)
PIT @ IND TOTAL- under when home team a big underdog, a new starting QB 52-40 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.