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Weekly Lines · 2016

Week 16.

16 games and 19 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2016. Every number is open.

This week's plays: 3-16, -17.1u flat at -110. Season through week 16: 82-87, -15.3u flat at -110.

GameMarketTotalFinal
NYG @ PHIThu, Dec 22 20:25 ETPHI +242.5NYG 19 at PHI 24PHI +2 closed · PHI covered
ARI @ SEASat, Dec 24 16:25 ETSEA +943.5ARI 34 at SEA 31SEA +9 closed · ARI covered
ATL @ CARSat, Dec 24 13:00 ETCAR -348.5ATL 33 at CAR 16CAR -3 closed · ATL covered
CIN @ HOUSat, Dec 24 20:25 ETHOU +341.5CIN 10 at HOU 12HOU +3 closed · CIN covered
IND @ OAKSat, Dec 24 16:05 ETOAK +3.552IND 25 at OAK 33OAK +3.5 closed · OAK covered
MIA @ BUFSat, Dec 24 13:00 ETBUF +4.544.5MIA 34 at BUF 31BUF +4.5 closed · MIA covered
MIN @ GBSat, Dec 24 13:00 ETGB +644.5MIN 25 at GB 38GB +6 closed · GB covered
NYJ @ NESat, Dec 24 13:00 ETNE +1745NYJ 3 at NE 41NE +17 closed · NE covered
SD @ CLESat, Dec 24 13:00 ETCLE -4.545SD 17 at CLE 20CLE -4.5 closed · CLE covered
SF @ LASat, Dec 24 16:25 ETLA +639.5SF 22 at LA 21LA +6 closed · SF covered
TB @ NOSat, Dec 24 16:25 ETNO +353TB 24 at NO 31NO +3 closed · NO covered
TEN @ JAXSat, Dec 24 13:00 ETJAX -444TEN 17 at JAX 38JAX -4 closed · JAX covered
WAS @ CHISat, Dec 24 13:00 ETCHI -349WAS 41 at CHI 21CHI -3 closed · WAS covered
BAL @ PITSun, Dec 25 16:30 ETPIT +5.546.5BAL 27 at PIT 31PIT +5.5 closed · BAL covered
DEN @ KCSun, Dec 25 20:30 ETKC +3.538.5DEN 10 at KC 33KC +3.5 closed · KC covered
DET @ DALMon, Dec 26 20:30 ETDAL +6.547DET 21 at DAL 42DAL +6.5 closed · DAL covered
The market line as posted, and how each game finished.

The plays

A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.

The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each

CIN @ HOU
LOSS CIN +3 3.0u
  • model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, elite QB, in a dome 14-6 (70%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, elite QB, in a dome 16-7 (70%)
  • model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, elite QB, in a dome 42-22 (66%)
  • and 26 more angles on this side
LAC @ CLE
LOSS CLE +4.5 2.0u
  • model fades them by 3.0+, at home, got blown out last week, better coach 20-9 (69%)
  • model fades them by 3.0+, at home, got blown out last week, worse QB 32-17 (65%)
  • model fades them by 3.0+, underdog, at home, got blown out last week 15-8 (65%)
  • and 16 more angles on this side
DEN @ KC
LOSS DEN +3.5 1.0u
  • model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, worse record, division game 92-60 (60%)
DET @ DAL
WIN DET +6.5 2.0u
  • model fades them by 3.0+, lost last week, worse record, in a dome 36-17 (68%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, worse record, better coach, in a dome 45-24 (65%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, worse record, better coach, in a dome 52-29 (64%)
  • and 14 more angles on this side
TB @ NO
LOSS NO -3 3.0u
  • model fades them by 0.5+, elite QB, division game, in a dome 39-15 (72%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, elite QB, division game, in a dome 32-13 (71%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, favorite, worse record, in a dome 51-27 (65%)
  • and 10 more angles on this side
NYG @ PHI
LOSS PHI -2 1.0u
  • model fades them by 3.0+, at home, lost last week, division game 74-43 (63%)
  • model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, at home, division game 112-71 (61%)
  • model fades them by 3.0+, at home, division game 129-85 (60%)
  • and 1 more angle on this side
WAS @ CHI
WIN WAS -3 3.0u
  • model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, elite QB 24-10 (71%)
  • model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, elite QB 26-11 (70%)
  • model likes them by 0.5+, favorite, less rest than the opponent, high total (48+) 21-10 (68%)
  • and 16 more angles on this side
SF @ LA TOTAL
LOSS Under 39.5 1.0u
  • under when rain in the forecast, division game 92-68 (57%)
  • under when division game, late season 235-182 (56%)
MIA @ BUF TOTAL
LOSS Under 44.5 1.0u
  • under when rain in the forecast, division game 92-68 (57%)
  • under when division game, late season 235-182 (56%)
MIN @ GB TOTAL
LOSS Under 44.5 1.0u
  • under when rain in the forecast, division game 92-68 (57%)
  • under when division game, late season 235-182 (56%)
NYJ @ NE TOTAL
WIN Under 45.0 1.0u
  • under when rain in the forecast, division game 92-68 (57%)
  • under when division game, late season 235-182 (56%)
SD @ CLE TOTAL
LOSS Over 45.0 1.0u
  • over when under 40 degrees, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 24-16 (60%)
TB @ NO TOTAL
LOSS Under 53.0 1.0u
  • under when high total (48+), line inside 3 84-64 (57%)
  • under when division game, late season 235-182 (56%)
DEN @ KC TOTAL
LOSS Under 38.5 1.0u
  • under when division game, late season 235-182 (56%)
BAL @ PIT TOTAL
LOSS Under 46.5 1.0u
  • under when division game, late season 235-182 (56%)
ARI @ SEA TOTAL
LOSS Under 43.5 1.0u
  • under when division game, late season 235-182 (56%)
TEN @ JAX TOTAL
LOSS Under 44.0 1.0u
  • under when division game, late season 235-182 (56%)
NYG @ PHI TOTAL
LOSS Under 42.5 1.0u
  • under when division game, late season 235-182 (56%)
CIN @ HOU TOTAL
LOSS Over 41.5 1.0u
  • over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 141-113 (56%)

Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.

← Week 15 The 2016 record Week 17 →

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