Weekly Lines · 2016
Week 3.
16 games and 8 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2016. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 4-4, -1.5u flat at -110. Season through week 3: 13-13, -2.6u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 HOU @  NEThu, Sep 22 20:25 ET | NE +1 | 38.5 | HOU 0 at NE 27NE +1 closed · NE covered |
 ARI @  BUFSun, Sep 25 13:00 ET | BUF -5 | 48 | ARI 18 at BUF 33BUF -5 closed · BUF covered |
 BAL @  JAXSun, Sep 25 13:00 ET | JAX -1 | 45 | BAL 19 at JAX 17JAX -1 closed · BAL covered |
 CHI @  DALSun, Sep 25 20:30 ET | DAL +6.5 | 45 | CHI 17 at DAL 31DAL +6.5 closed · DAL covered |
 CLE @  MIASun, Sep 25 13:00 ET | MIA +10 | 42 | CLE 24 at MIA 30MIA +10 closed · CLE covered |
 DEN @  CINSun, Sep 25 13:00 ET | CIN +3.5 | 42 | DEN 29 at CIN 17CIN +3.5 closed · DEN covered |
 DET @  GBSun, Sep 25 13:00 ET | GB +6 | 47.5 | DET 27 at GB 34GB +6 closed · GB covered |
 LA @  TBSun, Sep 25 16:05 ET | TB +3.5 | 40.5 | LA 37 at TB 32TB +3.5 closed · LA covered |
 MIN @  CARSun, Sep 25 13:00 ET | CAR +6 | 43 | MIN 22 at CAR 10CAR +6 closed · MIN covered |
 NYJ @  KCSun, Sep 25 16:25 ET | KC +3 | 44.5 | NYJ 3 at KC 24KC +3 closed · KC covered |
 OAK @  TENSun, Sep 25 13:00 ET | TEN -1.5 | 47 | OAK 17 at TEN 10TEN -1.5 closed · OAK covered |
 PIT @  PHISun, Sep 25 16:25 ET | PHI -3.5 | 46.5 | PIT 3 at PHI 34PHI -3.5 closed · PHI covered |
 SD @  INDSun, Sep 25 16:25 ET | IND +1.5 | 51.5 | SD 22 at IND 26IND +1.5 closed · IND covered |
 SF @  SEASun, Sep 25 16:05 ET | SEA +10.5 | 42 | SF 18 at SEA 37SEA +10.5 closed · SEA covered |
 WAS @  NYGSun, Sep 25 13:00 ET | NYG +3.5 | 47 | WAS 29 at NYG 27NYG +3.5 closed · WAS covered |
 ATL @  NOMon, Sep 26 20:30 ET | NO +2.5 | 54 | ATL 45 at NO 32NO +2.5 closed · ATL covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
CHI @ DAL - model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, got blown out last week 17-9 (65%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, got blown out last week 17-9 (65%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, got blown out last week, on turf 15-8 (65%)
- and 6 more angles on this side
CLE @ MIA - model fades them by 3.0+, at home, lost last week, worse QB 73-46 (61%)
PIT @ PHI TOTAL- over when early season, home team off Monday night 46-25 (65%)
- over when home team off Monday night 132-92 (59%)
CHI @ DAL TOTAL- over when in a dome, road team off Monday night 17-8 (68%)
HOU @ NE TOTAL- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 162-124 (57%)
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 184-144 (56%)
ATL @ NO TOTAL- under when high total (48+), line inside 3 84-64 (57%)
SD @ IND TOTAL- under when high total (48+), line inside 3 84-64 (57%)
LA @ TB TOTAL- over when low total (41 or under), early season 184-144 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.