Weekly Lines · 2016
Week 10.
14 games and 10 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2016. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 5-5, -0.5u flat at -110. Season through week 10: 51-44, +5.9u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 CLE @  BALThu, Nov 10 20:25 ET | BAL +7.5 | 44 | CLE 7 at BAL 28BAL +7.5 closed · BAL covered |
 ATL @  PHISun, Nov 13 13:00 ET | PHI +2 | 48.5 | ATL 15 at PHI 24PHI +2 closed · PHI covered |
 CHI @  TBSun, Nov 13 13:00 ET | TB -2.5 | 45 | CHI 10 at TB 36TB -2.5 closed · TB covered |
 DAL @  PITSun, Nov 13 16:25 ET | PIT +3 | 50.5 | DAL 35 at PIT 30PIT +3 closed · DAL covered |
 DEN @  NOSun, Nov 13 13:00 ET | NO +3 | 50 | DEN 25 at NO 23NO +3 closed · DEN covered |
 GB @  TENSun, Nov 13 13:00 ET | TEN -3 | 48.5 | GB 25 at TEN 47TEN -3 closed · TEN covered |
 HOU @  JAXSun, Nov 13 13:00 ET | JAX +3 | 42 | HOU 24 at JAX 21JAX +3 closed · HOU covered |
 KC @  CARSun, Nov 13 13:00 ET | CAR +3 | 44 | KC 20 at CAR 17CAR +3 closed · KC covered |
 LA @  NYJSun, Nov 13 13:00 ET | NYJ -1 | 39 | LA 9 at NYJ 6NYJ -1 closed · LA covered |
 MIA @  SDSun, Nov 13 16:05 ET | SD +4 | 48.5 | MIA 31 at SD 24SD +4 closed · MIA covered |
 MIN @  WASSun, Nov 13 13:00 ET | WAS +2.5 | 42 | MIN 20 at WAS 26WAS +2.5 closed · WAS covered |
 SEA @  NESun, Nov 13 20:30 ET | NE +7.5 | 49.5 | SEA 31 at NE 24NE +7.5 closed · SEA covered |
 SF @  ARISun, Nov 13 16:25 ET | ARI +14 | 46.5 | SF 20 at ARI 23ARI +14 closed · SF covered |
 CIN @  NYGMon, Nov 14 20:30 ET | NYG -1 | 49.5 | CIN 20 at NYG 21NYG -1 closed · NYG covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
HOU @ JAC - model fades them by 3.0+, at home, lost last week, division game 74-43 (63%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, at home, division game 112-71 (61%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, division game 129-85 (60%)
LAR @ NYJ - model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, on the road, on turf 98-65 (60%)
DAL @ PIT - model likes them by 0.5+, favorite, worse record, elite QB 30-19 (61%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, elite QB, better coach, high total (48+) 51-33 (61%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, elite QB, better coach, high total (48+) 55-36 (60%)
LA @ NYJ TOTAL- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 162-124 (57%)
- over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 141-113 (56%)
CIN @ NYG TOTAL- under when high total (48+), line inside 3 84-64 (57%)
DAL @ PIT TOTAL- under when high total (48+), line inside 3 84-64 (57%)
DEN @ NO TOTAL- under when high total (48+), line inside 3 84-64 (57%)
ATL @ PHI TOTAL- under when high total (48+), line inside 3 84-64 (57%)
GB @ TEN TOTAL- under when high total (48+), line inside 3 84-64 (57%)
CHI @ TB TOTAL- over when a new starting QB, road team off Monday night 33-10 (77%)
- over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 141-113 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.