Weekly Lines · 2016
Week 9.
13 games and 6 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2016. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 3-3, +1.6u flat at -110. Season through week 9: 46-39, +6.4u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 ATL @  TBThu, Nov 3 20:25 ET | TB -4.5 | 49 | ATL 43 at TB 28TB -4.5 closed · ATL covered |
 CAR @  LASun, Nov 6 16:05 ET | LA -3 | 44.5 | CAR 13 at LA 10LA -3 closed · push |
 DAL @  CLESun, Nov 6 13:00 ET | CLE -7 | 49 | DAL 35 at CLE 10CLE -7 closed · DAL covered |
 DEN @  OAKSun, Nov 6 20:30 ET | OAK +1 | 44.5 | DEN 20 at OAK 30OAK +1 closed · OAK covered |
 DET @  MINSun, Nov 6 13:00 ET | MIN +4 | 42.5 | DET 22 at MIN 16MIN +4 closed · DET covered |
 IND @  GBSun, Nov 6 16:25 ET | GB +7.5 | 52 | IND 31 at GB 26GB +7.5 closed · IND covered |
 JAX @  KCSun, Nov 6 13:00 ET | KC +7 | 42.5 | JAX 14 at KC 19KC +7 closed · JAX covered |
 NO @  SFSun, Nov 6 16:05 ET | SF -5 | 53 | NO 41 at SF 23SF -5 closed · NO covered |
 NYJ @  MIASun, Nov 6 13:00 ET | MIA +3.5 | 45 | NYJ 23 at MIA 27MIA +3.5 closed · MIA covered |
 PHI @  NYGSun, Nov 6 13:00 ET | NYG +3 | 42.5 | PHI 23 at NYG 28NYG +3 closed · NYG covered |
 PIT @  BALSun, Nov 6 13:00 ET | BAL -3.5 | 46 | PIT 14 at BAL 21BAL -3.5 closed · BAL covered |
 TEN @  SDSun, Nov 6 16:25 ET | SD +3.5 | 47.5 | TEN 35 at SD 43SD +3.5 closed · SD covered |
 BUF @  SEAMon, Nov 7 20:30 ET | SEA +5.5 | 43.5 | BUF 25 at SEA 31SEA +5.5 closed · SEA covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
BUF @ SEA - model fades them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, elite QB, on turf 16-7 (70%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, got blown out last week, elite QB, on turf 16-7 (70%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, elite QB, on turf 21-14 (60%)
DEN @ 
LV - model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, better QB, division game 105-61 (63%)
JAC @ KC - model likes them by 1.0+, blew someone out last week, better record, bad QB 15-8 (65%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, blew someone out last week, worse QB, bad QB 24-13 (65%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, blew someone out last week, bad QB 25-14 (64%)
- and 9 more angles on this side
NO @ SF - model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, elite QB 26-11 (70%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, favorite, less rest than the opponent, high total (48+) 21-10 (68%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, better record, high total (48+) 18-9 (67%)
- and 9 more angles on this side
DET @ MIN TOTAL- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 63-40 (61%)
- over when in a dome, home team off Monday night 29-20 (59%)
- over when home team off Monday night 132-92 (59%)
PIT @ BAL TOTAL- under when windy, division game 69-46 (60%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.