Weekly Lines · 2016
Week 2.
16 games and 6 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2016. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 4-2, +3.8u flat at -110. Season through week 2: 9-9, -1.1u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 NYJ @  BUFThu, Sep 15 20:25 ET | BUF +1.5 | 40.5 | NYJ 37 at BUF 31BUF +1.5 closed · NYJ covered |
 ATL @  OAKSun, Sep 18 16:25 ET | OAK +4 | 47.5 | ATL 35 at OAK 28OAK +4 closed · ATL covered |
 BAL @  CLESun, Sep 18 13:00 ET | CLE -4 | 42 | BAL 25 at CLE 20CLE -4 closed · BAL covered |
 CIN @  PITSun, Sep 18 13:00 ET | PIT +3 | 48 | CIN 16 at PIT 24PIT +3 closed · PIT covered |
 DAL @  WASSun, Sep 18 13:00 ET | WAS +3.5 | 47 | DAL 27 at WAS 23WAS +3.5 closed · DAL covered |
 GB @  MINSun, Sep 18 20:30 ET | MIN -1.5 | 43 | GB 14 at MIN 17MIN -1.5 closed · MIN covered |
 IND @  DENSun, Sep 18 16:25 ET | DEN +5 | 47 | IND 20 at DEN 34DEN +5 closed · DEN covered |
 JAX @  SDSun, Sep 18 16:25 ET | SD +3 | 47.5 | JAX 14 at SD 38SD +3 closed · SD covered |
 KC @  HOUSun, Sep 18 13:00 ET | HOU -1 | 41.5 | KC 12 at HOU 19HOU -1 closed · HOU covered |
 MIA @  NESun, Sep 18 13:00 ET | NE +5.5 | 42 | MIA 24 at NE 31NE +5.5 closed · NE covered |
 NO @  NYGSun, Sep 18 13:00 ET | NYG +3.5 | 54 | NO 13 at NYG 16NYG +3.5 closed · NO covered |
 SEA @  LASun, Sep 18 16:05 ET | LA -5.5 | 38 | SEA 3 at LA 9LA -5.5 closed · LA covered |
 SF @  CARSun, Sep 18 13:00 ET | CAR +12 | 44.5 | SF 27 at CAR 46CAR +12 closed · CAR covered |
 TB @  ARISun, Sep 18 13:00 ET | ARI +7.5 | 49.5 | TB 7 at ARI 40ARI +7.5 closed · ARI covered |
 TEN @  DETSun, Sep 18 13:00 ET | DET +6 | 48 | TEN 16 at DET 15DET +6 closed · TEN covered |
 PHI @  CHIMon, Sep 19 20:30 ET | CHI +3 | 42.5 | PHI 29 at CHI 14CHI +3 closed · PHI covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
BAL @ CLE - model fades them by 2.0+, won last week, better record, worse QB 85-52 (62%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, better record, worse QB, division game 61-38 (62%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, better record, worse QB, division game 48-30 (62%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
KC @ HOU - model fades them by 3.0+, better QB, better coach, in a dome 36-21 (63%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, better coach, on turf 95-56 (63%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, better QB, better coach, on turf 68-41 (62%)
- and 15 more angles on this side
CIN @ PIT - model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, high total (48+) 15-6 (71%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, division game 17-7 (71%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, elite QB 16-7 (70%)
- and 5 more angles on this side
SEA @ LA TOTAL- over when early season, home team off Monday night 46-25 (65%)
- over when home team off Monday night 132-92 (59%)
- over when a team looking ahead to a division game, home team off Monday night 74-54 (58%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
DAL @ WAS TOTAL- over when early season, home team off Monday night 46-25 (65%)
- over when home team off Monday night 132-92 (59%)
- over when a team looking ahead to a division game, home team off Monday night 74-54 (58%)
NYJ @ BUF TOTAL- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 162-124 (57%)
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 184-144 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.